pyrotech

Radar on my site suggests rain across South west has turned to Sleet or Snow East of Exeter It also has webcams across the Country near the bottom of page, zoom in to an area to get more cameras I will try to update it next week http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/live snow reports snowing now.htm

Chris Fawkes‏ @_chrisfawkes 20m20 minutes ago More EC12z has shifted tomorrow's #snow zone about 50 miles southward, a trend noted in UKMO recent runs. Midlands & Wales still to get biggest 10-20cm disruptive dump Sunday. London area is finely balanced re rain/snow but at rather greater risk of getting some snow .

Anyone near North Tawton area - are those showers rain or sleet moving into that neighbourhood

Shifting slowly Southwards - currently same charts on BBC, but they tend to change with shift change of forecaster for anything beyond next few hours, i believe they time it for latest model runs to be included with the new presenters shifts, i suggest next presenter will be having briefing on any changes the may of occurred

The ECM and GFS look further ahead, but these other models are also of alot of use near term. We should also be paying attention to what these models are suggesting in a wrap around of cold air behind the low that changes rain and sleet towards snow, Its this common theme thats interesting as its a constant trend, as is the slight move South Use all the tools in the box not just the favourites Euro 4 is high res but has often got precipitation rates wrong and sometimes quite considerably, as for rain or snow this will be its first real test in a while but i would not rule out its accuracy on next run tonight. At least we are having a pre christmas discussion on snow unlike last few years and we could see snow tomorrow right down to the Cities at some stage

Met office use their own, GFS and ECM so do not be so quick to right it off, We need to be patient now and wait for BBC graphics latest update which is compiled by modified solutions from their model. Plus look for tweets of people like IF Just looking at the radar you can see the models have been out a little on this in the current timeframe, them difference get bigger as time ticks on, but again wait to see what meto say which may be this evening if any changes are incoming. It could be that their model nailed it already and no change made, bu i feel warnings will extend southwards

GFS teases us in the South, - A shift towards us opens opportunities, Its the GFS and not what METO will not take any shift on it as gospel and neither should we, however the positive is that it is the latest run and so most up to date so far. I will be interested in what BBC graphics show in an hour or so as should reflect latest from their models. This is going right down to the wire

Funny lot in main thread , BlueArmy seems to think Wales does not exist, The Snow line goes, according to him "Gloucester across to Luton and then across to s norfolk" Now i thought a line from West of Brecon looks high risk too Are we seeing jealousy from Some on there for Wales and West Mids having highest risk of snow They should know, santa only rewards good boys and girls and being jealous is not being good. Seems we have been good ! He could always come across to Gods Country for the night, if we let him in

here is overlay of latest surface pressure chart and the warnings and it shows just how critical that low centre is , few miles south and all will be in the fun I added 3 versions so you can see main features of each layer.

Snowing in West side of Cardiff right now

Heads of the valleys near Rhymney , Dowlais and Ebbw vale look to have a small covering and would suspect hirwain area too

lower levels too

jay Your naughty putting that on main forum - i love it lol

Oh dear i posted a tweet from IF on main forum Upset a few people especially with Wales looking better on latest BBC graphics for Sunday ians tweet below MoreIans i W COUNTRY SUN: Re earlier tweet, @metoffice snow warning now issued caters for risk N'rn Glos up into Midlands. Pls note ongoing large uncertainty re N/S boundary in warning zone of rain v snow (warning area based on ensemble spread in UKMO & ECMWF models) They started throwing toys out of the pram, they don't seem to include Wales in their posts, at all and just talk about the mighty England, well guess what Wales is part of the Uk and Snow looks great for us and fairly dry over Eastern England

I have to agree in your location, thats a little too far south for this set up, however i do hope you get something over next week or so. There is South and then SOUTH - Bournemouth and other coastal towns are not really in the running, But Hills further inland Dartmoor etc do have opportunity as does Mendips etc

Yes really , im not into lying More W COUNTRY SUN: Re earlier tweet, @metoffice snow warning now issued caters for risk N'rn Glos up into Midlands. Pls note ongoing large uncertainty re N/S boundary in warning zone of rain v snow (warning area based on ensemble spread in UKMO & ECMWF models)

Meto state they are using Ensembles from ECM and UKMO, latest graphics on BBC bring the snow further south into Southeast Wales, so much to play for for everyone in Wales, SW England , Southern England , Midlands and possibly South east too So although in interested in the trends set by GFS i am more looking for changes in trend from ECM We also have interesting synoptics later next week showing up

Andy, GFS is almost perfect for us, the good news is that GFS has been consistent with position of the low Sunday on both 06z and 12z run today However lets not discount UKMO who have put the centre of the low much further North, i would be interested in MOGREPS and what that is saying and maybe a clue in the fax charts later Disruptive snow is very close but fat lady is not singing just yet Lets keep our feet on the ground as we wait to see which looks more accurate, not what we want to be more accurate

Steve i think your on the money there, Sea temps of plus 11c Upper air temperature of minus 8 -10 c Plenty of convection as it rides over such a contrasting temperature and with it i would not be surprised to see some sferics To us lot - Thundersnow Met office warnings seem to indicate that Mogreps is riding somewhere near GFS in its move Southwards I hope IF pops in on the forum tonight to give his views

Thanks i was rushing and i try to do things without my reading glasses, your adding of those two much appreciated , its interesting to see the corrections between the two models

Interesting to see the changes from ECM and GFS for Sundays low Starting with GFS 06z Tuesday 12z Tuesday 18z tuesday 00z wed 06z wed ECM mon 12z Tues 00z Tues 12z wed 00z

See my post two days ago, MJO possibly in to a fairly strong phase 7 around 13th of December leads to opportunities around 26th + or - 3 days Moved out of the COD and now tracking thru phase 5 (an area where we try to get more mobile weather) This is why the blocking is a contrast with MJO phase and so we have this interesting set up. Its this set up that will keep jet stream over west of UK and so keep us cold for another 10 days and then we should be close to the effects of phase 6/7 i suggest that phase 6 is certain but phase 7 just a 50/50 - phase 6 being pretty good for cold and blocking

Not a huge difference between the surface pressure charts by Meto and GFS for 12z Friday, At that stage it seems GFS has the backing of Mogreps and thats leading to a very interesting period tomorrow where we see what Meto are thinking as the sliding low lines up

You are the expert along with Tamara on MJO but i find phase 7 is one of the best phases for cold weather across Western Europe and the prediction is for possible strong phase 7 by around 13th December and that takes us to a very interesting period from 26th December onwards. Along with the cold spell from Thursday this week things are looking a lot more interesting than they have for the previous few years. Sliding lows will make the difference locally but the main thing is to get the main drivers playing ball and getting cold in place. When this happens opportunities arrive . Glacier - please let me know if you do not see phase 7 as being good, as although its what i find, i am still learning the technical drivers