pyrotech

Please bear in mind the highest windspeed recorded at Stornoway was highest official recording and taken in relative sheltered area near Airport. Many weather stations were destroyed by this storm. Some unofficial stations recorded over 130mph gust. The houses are built a little differently than down south For instance, under tiles they have felt and under that wood panelling. So yes places like Isle of Lewis is used to some severe weather and fairly prepared for it. This storm damaged 2/3 of houses on Lewis. My family (Parents) had 30% of roof ripped off and their neighbours had worse with windows ect blown through. This was a very violent storm and even the resilient homes of this area had a lot of damage. There is also the problem of repairs ( With rain water now coming through the ceiling and any further storms now causing further damage) There are limited roofers and builders on an Island like Lewis. There is the need of ferry to bring supplies, not just food but building supplies and slates etc. I think maybe this would have been a location where red warning could have been issued based on likelihood and effect. However due to resilience of the properties and people and lower population this may be why it remained at Amber.

Subtle differences fairly early on from the last GFS to this run ( i know we should compare similar runs really) By new years day they become significant. One question is will the high over Western Europe be kept up. The low over the med seems to help keep it in place a new low to West of UK Is this the start of a migration over the next few days towards the high being propped up and undercut scenario early in New year. Its not what the models show, but tentative changes towards that possibility . With that, its just more progressive and if anything the High slips further South. However Low in Med seems to be further West. There is a lot to play for with this scenario. Active Atlantic with stormy conditions , or undercutting low scenario? As this is model discussion i will say Atlantic looks like winning out, but there are inconsistencies

there are two warnings out one by public health England for severe cold this is given when met office suggest temperatures day and night remain below a preset level for preset time. This gives a huge danger for public who are vulnerable. So this warning is correct. then severe weather We have rain and snow coming through today and for some this will be heavy and of the snow variety. So people out doing their boxing day bargain shopping will be at risk in some areas of having disruption. Then we have ice following Not severe for us lot on here watching tv or on internet from our armchairs Try telling that to someone stuck in their car on a remote moor trying to get home. These warnings are preparation Too many experts on here that give their forecast and if wrong slip back under the covers with no consequences. Met office have a duty of care and can not hide, much harder to be in limelight like that. Why don't we work on predicting the models rather than criticise the arguably best Meteorological organisation today. sorry i see Ian has answered these posts whilst i was writing this one

Sorry, yes was rushing as was being called for lunch

1200m at high point of A465 i believe Over 1000m I suspect some snow around story arms now

Your location should be borderline later I would still be in hope there In Cardiff itself i have seen some sleet but here it was never expected to be accumulating snow. That low seems to have stalled somewhat However it seems more likely that from now on temperatures and dew point will lower Evaporative cooling whilst winds are light first visible snow now on the merthyr webcams

report in last few minutes of snow in Dowlais Merthyr

Any reports from traveller having gone over Brecon Beacons or North of Builth wells? Reports of snow now on mountains North wales

Evaporative cooling is our best bet today for many of us. However the effect will not be as effective as the low deepens as winds will increase and lower the effect. The flip side is that those higher winds could drag the cooler air from North over more Southern Counties. This is why i feel back edge snow is more likely in South, but mid wales may do okay

Thanks PK these reports will help us see what is happening. Not too worried about temps to start as the winds from South likely to hold the warm sector, as low passes through gives best chance of something more wintry for most. I have a sneaky feeling something white falling in hills around Builth Wells now. Just the way precipitation showed stronger echoes as it reached there. Question is Sleet or Snow?

Lets see if we can get some reports in from Mid Wales as the action starts. The intensity will also matter as you will get evaporative cooling. I suggest mainly hills North of the M4 and lower levels from Central Wales. This was always a marginal event, however that type of event can also bring the best accumulations in a short space of time. I believe raining now in South West Wales, so lets see what happens has precipitation moves North East and low Tracks East ( South East would be even better)

Hi John. Regarding your question about isobars. Which i am sure you know answer too. Im on phone so struggling to read today. Anyway i am going to answer it and you can then correct if i am out abit and miss anything. I believe a few factors play in firstly coronial effect and secondly high and low pressure is trying to equal. With high pressure attemting to move towards low to equalise. I believe friction comes into play also but first two are main players. The isobars only show lines of equal pressure not wind direction but due to the above you can work out direction and it is few degrees off so you can use as rough guide only the direction of isobars. Also direction runs inwards in low and out on high from isobar direction. Im confused why u asked as i know your experienced forecaster so assume someone has confused isobar and exact wind direction. Im not expert so any correction to my limited model analysis is always appreciated. From samsung galaxy so sorry for any mistakes

It would seem that a new centre of the Low has formed in Irish Sea about level with Aberwystwyth, that could cause some issues depending how it moves. Seems to be oval rather than round, so Nae would be about right with this for now

Ian, having seen extra data from Mogreps and UKMO GM are you able to give you personal opinion on how this is shaping up for your region into Wales. In the form of if latest output looks pretty much about right or if low could form slightly different and give a more wintry feel to us in the West. In addition is there any signs of a prolonged dry spell, as water table remains high and we seem to be keeping it topped up, what worries me is a storm of low signifigance normally, would cause serious issues unless we get a substancial sustained dry spell. Your valued opinions are always listened too on here

Nothing really to worry about. these warnings will change again tomorrow. Its just current model run and still where low will actually form is being guessed. Hi res should get better view over night tonight. Exactly the same as January. Upgrades for some and down grades for others happened right up and beyond t 24

M5 JTN 25 - 27 looks very bad with snow on motorway and bad visability

The main band should move into Cardiff between 2pm and 3pm where some persistant snow is then likely, dew points will drop with the precipitation. The snow cams on my website allow viewing of the snow as it heads up from South West England, be aware its coming from Southeasterly direction for us with the bands circulation clipping South Wales and maybe pushing little further North than forecast

You might have noticed that as precipitation hit welsh coast the echo intensified. What we do not know is if thats just convection. Or if rain turned to snow. Unless someone has nw extra and you will be able to tell

Yes heavier precipitation leads to evaporative cooling. More evident in dry air which is what we are sat in at the moment ahead of the front

I hope they do. The channel can be our best friend or worst enermy in this situation. Can certainky aid convection but can also make marginal temperatures problematic. looking okay so far as. It approaches us

This looks much more. Like the NAE 06z than any other model run today . If it is then was very heavysnow for south wales. Later runs played it down and changes timings.

Thunder seems to be located just near that intense blob that went thru truro plymouth dartmoor and possibly heading close to exeter. More may break out due to huge temperature inversion. Mixing of air causing huge instabiliy as the warm air tries to rapidly rise in the cold dense surface air. The warmer air unable to hold water content then at lower temperature. So huge transfer of energy as precipitation formsand intensifies. However its where this temperature inversion happens thats important. Its like a wide squall line but as it only gets so far north will it die off in the front or stall and keep intesity.

I checked car hour ago and thick ice covers it. Also reports of lightning striking a building on dartmoor. Aparently a nice storm brewing down there. Hopefully its got cardiff in its sight and turns to snow. Front precipitation reported as rain

Temps dropped nicely now in Cardiff. Now will the Bristol channel warm temperatures increase precipitation, or make temps slightly too warm? Its a close call and could make huge diference

That storm showing over Plymouth has been travelling up the Coast and could turn inland towards Exeter, could that give somewhere in the Southwest a huge quick snowfall - like the M5 one a few years ago. I was not expecting such a interesting night i must say