lord stratus

Great if you like wet weather. Those charts showing a rise in temperatures will also bring periods of rain and breezy weather.

How can my post be regarded as trolling just because it doesn't suit certain cold fans. I comment on what I see and use past experience. The more experienced members in here know that the uppers will not be that cold in the set up shown, hence my comment.

If that chart verified it would be a mainly rain event uk wide with hill snow.

A couple of chilly mainly dry days out to Tuesday then a warming trend. A little snow is possible tonight and tomorrow but not much to speak of really.

Have to agree with zastruga on this one. It's not just a case of looking at pretty charts and saying blizzards here we come! What individuals on here are entitled to is giving their own interpretation of the Synoptics. It would have helped if zastruga had backed up the statement. My interpretation is that although they are nice charts the eventual outcome will not translate into the type of weather most people on here want. ECM has done this so many times this winter that confidence has to be low. This set up will bring wet weather to low ground with hill snow but a slight change to a more continental influence will increase snow chances.

I have to laugh at some of these posts promoting northerlies. They never deliver any potent cold as there is too much modification. It all looks great when viewed on the charts but in all honesty if the northerly eye candy verified it would feel tropical compared to the current easterlies that we are having which has hardly been given a mention!

Depends where the hp ends up. If its in a favourable position then it could well bring spring like temperatures.

No need to be concerned about disruptive snow this week. At this stage it looks like a light dusting which should not cause problems with the roads in the Croydon area.

There is still plenty of interest in the charts that's for sure. We still need a further push north to bring more areas into play. At the moment it's still south of the m4 oops I mean Thames snow risk!

Just take a bit from both runs and you shouldn't be too far out!

I disagree with your post. The met office are playing it safe as we are still talking 4 days out. Even if there is heavy snow on the weekend it will not have any bearing on their credibility. If you listen to their latest forecasts and Ian F's posts they clearly state that there is no significant snow showing up at the moment. This can change and if it does I am sure it will start showing up in their forecasts.

Best not to look beyond the weekend as I expect there will be a few changes, we still need to see if that high will extend northwest. This week is looking progressively colder after Tuesday with snow chances creeping just north of the m4 corridor. The question is will the snow showers stay south of the m4 corridor or will there be a shift further north to bring other areas in to play?

You have confused me. I was commenting on the 12z, in fact I haven't seen the 00z. Looking at the 12z I posted where I expected the best chance of snow. As you know the outputs will change during this week which will favour some but not all areas. I can only imagine that you live north of my suggested snow extent! This mornings output keeps the snow risk in the far south but much colder for all of the UK.

The charts are playing with options at the moment and the eventual outcome could bring most locations into play. It doesn't look like moving much either way, say 200 miles but you never know. At the moment I would say a line across from mid Wales to Norfolk south would be the areas that see the most snow.

Northern extent probably the m4 corridor.

Spot on. People get suckered in by northerlies showing in the winter charts. -16 uppers mean nothing by time they are modified by the large sea crossing!

Northerlies don't deliver. They look good on charts but the temperatures are too modified. Would be 3 to 4c in the north and 6 to 7c in the south.

No point looking at a Break down of the cold spell as it hasn't even started yet! As for snow amounts, well that can't be predicted this early. I expect we'll have a better idea once the cold has set in. I am surprised that certain people on this forum are predicting either loads of snow or little or no snow. Surely by now we should all know that in these set ups snow can pop up at any time and at short notice. Expect some surprises over the next few weeks!

It wasn't a criticism, the ukmo have to be careful with their forecasts, could you imagine a weather presenter going with every gfs output? They would be laughed out of the breakfast tv studio on a daily basis!

Not happy with that.

Maybe but remember Ian F always sits on the fence for as long as possible!

No one would worry if it didn't turn out to be another 1987. There have been far better cold spells, maybe not for daytime low temps but other spells have been better for longevity and snowfall. Looking at the latest outputs it does look like the rest of February will turn wintry after this short mild blip.

Very pleased to hear your excellent news, it makes us realise that we should never get hung up on model outputs when they are not showing what we want to see, it's just not that important! I am very pleased for you and your family.

Well I'll keep my fingers crossed for you;)

Things are finely balanced at the moment but it seems tonight that any northern movement of the LP has stopped so we could now start seeing a correction south & west which would then mean the snow develops further south but reduces up north. I would suggest looking at the charts tomorrow afternoon and evening and looking at what members are reading into them also. This should give you a clearer idea with regards to Sundays snow. As I say there is still time for a south correction and about 100 miles would probably do nicely for southern UK.