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Jane Louise

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Everything posted by Jane Louise

  1. Very nice and welcome to Netweather unthrown. There's quite a few of us storm enthusiasts on this forum so I'm sure you'll fit in with us crazy lot lol.
  2. The wind is absolutely terrible out there me and my plastic greenhouse almost flew across the field lol.
  3. Morning all, A couple of forecasts for today from Estofex and Dan from UKASF. Storm Forecast Valid: Sat 02 Nov 2013 06:00 to Sun 03 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC Issued: Fri 01 Nov 2013 22:23 Forecaster: PISTOTNIK A level 1 was issued for Ireland and Wales for severe convective wind gusts. SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION A broad zonal flow covers most parts of Europe, distorted by a progressive, deepening trough and another powerful cyclone which cross the British Isles during the forecast period. Minimal and rather shallow CAPE is forecast in the belt of augmented low-level moisture along its cold front over Northern Portugal, Northern Spain and France, and then again in its wake over the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay, where lapse rates steepen in response to QG lift. Shower activity in these areas may be accompanied by a few lightning strikes. 0-3 km vertical wind shear does not exceed 15 m/s, but the strong background wind field can promote some severe wind gusts even with weakly organized convection over Ireland and Wales (25-30 m/s flow at 850 hPa). Further downstream, a forerunning frontal wave crosses BeNeLux and Northern Germany but gets dampened by a lack of forcing. Leftover patches of (elevated) CAPE near its crest might allow isolated thunderstorms in the 06 to 12 UTC time frame. However, their northward displacement from the stronger kinematics of the warm sector should preclude any severe weather. Scattered to widespread showers will form in the cool maritime air mass off the Norwegian coast, which is characterized by deep mixing and very weak vertical wind shear. They will barely grow deep enough to produce any lightning. To the South, quiescent conditions prevail over the Mediterranean Sea, but scattered showers are still possible in the range of a decaying upper-level low around Italy. An isolated waterspout is not ruled out, especially along land breeze fronts in the morning hours. http://www.estofex.org/ UKASF Synopsis Large upper trough will approach from the Atlantic, with axis aligned N-S down western Britain by 00z Sunday. At the surface, a deepening low will track northeast from Ireland to the Borders, and thereafter exiting across the North Sea during the evening hours. Discussion Behind the wrap-around front, cold mid-levels will overspread warm SSTs, significantly steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Ireland during the midday and afternoon hours, this activity translating to and becoming more widespread across Irish Sea and Celtic Sea areas, and along adjacent exposed west-facing coasts. Particular attention is given to Pembrokeshire, Devon and Cornwall during the evening and into Saturday night as very steep mid-level lapse rates suggest more widespread lightning activity - potential, perhaps, to upgrade some coastal areas to MDT. An increase in offshore convection is also forecast near the coasts of eastern Scotland, grazing Aberdeenshire and tracking further northwards through the evening towards Orkney, and Shetland after midnight, hence the inclusion of a second SLGT area. In both cases, 30-40kts DLS will allow cells to become well-organised, especially at first, and with strong LLS and SREH, a funnel or waterspout is certainly possible. Dry surface air suggests cloud bases will be quite high, albeit dropping slightly during the evening hours as the surface layers moisten. Some small hail is likely in several stronger cells. http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/294
  4. Somehow I think not!. or anywhere else on earth come to think of it lol
  5. Yay,definitely my turn next probably, in about 10 years But for most it's been pretty cool for storms this autumn. Still quite a few of us left in here I believe.
  6. Yeah same here. Members who want to discuss their alcoholic drinks should be heading over to the chat room.I'm sure it's open. !!
  7. Hi Adam, Welcome to NW Could you please pop where you live in the UK into your profile or signature. Thank you
  8. Hope the storm heads this way! but it probably wont lol. I wonder if there will be any storms with this low system passing over on sunday night.
  9. The main thing is to keep ourselves and others safe no matter how much we are fascinated with mother natures wild weather events.
  10. Lol Chris I may get those it will certainly help. Tonight I've downloaded a thunderstorm live wallpaper on my galaxy.. desperate times
  11. Or never lol. Yes, by the coast has always been good for storms in Autumn and then the Summer is mainly in the North East. Oh well, can't win them all Lol. Roll on next year!
  12. Here you go guys. You'll find your answer here. Taken from my facebook. Torro - the UK's Tornado and Storm Research Organisation shared a link.3 hours ago near London, England · Edited You might see this picture going around this morning, supposedly showing funnel clouds and Portsmouth, or Plymouth, depending on where you read it. Actually, it is neither - it is, in itself, a doctored image (see the comments for the original) - it's a shame that some people feel the need to try issue such fakes, but they're often fairly easy to spot/disprove: Tornado And Lightening Stock Photo 90033073 : Shutterstockwww.shutterstock.comDownload royalty free tornado and lightening stock photo from Shutterstock's library of millions of high resolution stock photos, vectors, and illustrations.
  13. Oh god I'm sorry I had to start a new thread mid storm. But whats the big deal eh! this is how it's always been Lol
  14. Tis never been strange. A new thread should always be started after 15 pages but I let it go on.
  15. Does it really matter!! it's been locked and the discussion continues here.
  16. Locking this thread now... please pop over here to carry on lol http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78239-convective-storm-discussion-22nd-october-onwards-2013/
  17. A new thread here for the rest of Autumn. Autumn has been very good for storms this year! although sadly not everybody has had one yet. One rumble of thunder and one flash of lightning so far this year for me which I'm most grateful for . I am certainly not giving up any hope just yet as we all know storms can happen anytime of the year. Anyway good luck again all and don't forget to post up any pics and videos you have.
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