karyo

That's good advice! Some people people panic too easily! A heavy shower is coming our way according to the radar. Hopefully, all snow! Karyo

The showers that are starting to affect our region have a long track over the Irish sea, so rain can be expected for many of us for a time! Out hope for snow lies with the front coming south during the night, as it will cut off the Irish sea influence. So don't panic if it rains this evening! Karyo

Amazing precipitation upgrade from the UKMO! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&carte=1594&ech=6 Run the sequence from 18-32 hours. It basically shows precipitation over us for much of tomorrow! It seems that the cold front slows down as it moves south and dumps a lot of precipitation over us! The gfs also showed a bit of slowing down but not to the same extend! Karyo

The 12z gfs has upgraded the precipitation considerably! I expect some moderate to heavy (for a time) precipitation! I think there is also quite a possibility for a streamer to develop in the next 2-3 hours, ahead of the cold front. The met office radar is already showing signs of this in the northern channel, heading for the Irish sea! The main band (currently in Scotland) is looking healthy too! Karyo

The latest forecasts have upgraded the precipitation for our region! The UKMO and GFS pick up some wintry showers from 6pm onwards. These are ahead of the weather front which is expected in the early hours of tomorrow. The ECM precipitation forecast has upgraded the intensity of the front too! Of course, there is alsways a risk for coastal areas in particular seeing a wintry mix rather than snow, but for areas further inland things are looking quite good at the moment! Karyo

What did the countryfile forecast say/show for the northwest? Edit: just read the post by dogeredee! The ECM precipitation forecasts are not very promising for our region http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec Karyo

The UKMO has precious little precipitation over us on Tuesday http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=42&carte=1594 It then keeps the wind north/nportheast and keeps our region mainly dry! It has to be said though, that the UKMO often underestimates precipitation. Karyo

This chart looks promising - thanks for posting it! The 12z gfs shows mainly light precipitation from the cold front on Tuesday morning. However, it then shows a fair few snow showers crossing the Pennines during the latter part of Tuesday and Wednesday in a cold northeasterly wind! Karyo

Coastal areas may get a wintry mix tomorrow, rather than snow. As I am well inland, I expect snow but I am concerned about the amount of snow - there could be very little. By Wednesday, the offshore wind (northeast) will ensure that it will be cold enough for snow everywhere, but the snow showers can be very unreliable. Let's hope for more trough generation! By the way, don't expect any constructive discussion on the model discussion thread, as all the emphasis will be in the southeast! Karyo

That will never happen! Or at least as unlikely as Steve Murr discussing snow chances in the model discussion thread for anywhere else than southeast! Tuesday morning looks our best chance for snow thanks to the cold front moving south. At the moment it looks like giving a spell of moderate snowfall but there is always a chance to brake up before it get's here (it happened with the front on the 20th Dec). On Wednesday we should see some snow showers crossing the Pennines but very hit and miss. The rest of the week is looking mainly dry at present. Karyo

It is snowing lightly in Manchester with a moderate northeasterly wind! At the same time, I can see the hazy moon rising in the sky! It's a beautiful scene but it means I can't expect the snow to get any heavier... There is some snow on the ground left from the morning snowfall, which I expect to get icy pretty soon! Karyo

Thankfully the sleety rain has now stopped so I am hoping to keep much of the snow cover. If only the other band from the northeast could make it late on - it is doubtful though... Karyo

I'd say after 4pm so we should keep some snow on the ground. Karyo

Some huge flakes of snow are mixed in with the rain/sleet. This is still damaging my snow cover so I hope it stops asap! Karyo

You mentioned the possibility of snow showers affecting the northwest 2/3 days ago and I think you were the only one here! This I suppose proves once again that human input and experience is very important, regardless of what the model precipitation charts show! Karyo

According to the radar the band of precipitation is coming to an end soon as it moves south. I am glad as it is mainly sleety rain here, damaging my snowcover. Thankfully, the ground is frozen underneath so I should keep some snow on the ground. I don't think the second trough will affect us much this afternoon. It is losing intensity as it is moving towards us. Karyo

Here it is: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec Karyo

Rain and sleet here now. Some thaw as well! Karyo

The models are looking fantastic for a prolonged cold spell! Regarding the precipitation forecasts, I am amazed by how bad the ECM can be at even a short range. It didn't pick up the signal for todays streamer over northwest England. The gfs picked it up only yesterday but underestimated the intensity of it! Now I am sitting pretty on 2cms of fresh snow! Karyo

Snowing heavily now in the city centre! Karyo

A lovely surprise for me! Just woke up and there is a covering of 1.5cm here. Snowing currently too! Lovely, lovely,lovely! Karyo

There will be plenty of showers over our region tomorrow, thanks to a northwesterly flow! Of course, this means that we'll have to deal with the Irish sea influence again and the showers will coincide with upper air temperatures at their warmest! Even so, the 18z gfs shows the upper air temperatures no higher than -5c so not the dreadful warm sector we had on Sat 20th December. I would expect, showers to be of rain near the coast but wintry further inland. The gfs spreads the showers across the region. Then, later in the afternoon the second trough crosses the region from north to south. This is better for snow as it will introduce much colder uppers and an offshore wind. However, this trough may lose it's intensity and only give us a dusting of snow. It will be a day for radar watching to see how much precipitation the second trough holds. Karyo

It looks good to me! Plenty of front and trough action affecting a good part of the UK, not just the east! Karyo

The 12z gfs is showing a streamer over northwest England for tomorrow! http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= Temperatures will be marginal for the coast (say Merseyside) but further inland snow is possible. Then, in the latter part of the day, the trough is moving south bringing a spell of light/moderate snow with much colder air following behind. Sunday also has snow flurries crossing the Pennines. So yes, an upgrade for precipitation! Karyo

Just had 10 mins of light snow, leaving a dusting on surfaces. Karyo