karyo
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Everything posted by karyo
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Well, I am pleasantly surprised with the ECM at 144 and 168 hours! The secondary feature further south, deapens and becomes the main low. As a result the centre of the low pressure is further south at 168 hours with a much cooler easterly flow over the UK! This should be in line with the 0z De Bilt ensembles which were chilly throughout! Karyo
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No excitement from the 12z output so far. The ensembles show nothing mild but nothing particularly cold either! The UKMO is looking very frustrating with the low keeping the cold uppers at bay! Let's see what the ECM will bring... Karyo
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The Meto 12z has been late coming out all week for some unknown reason! Karyo
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However, the models are consistently showing us missing any properly cold air. High pressure all across the northern latitudes and we're stuck with the low pressure. Karyo
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The 12z places the low to the southwest of the UK for the middle part of next week, which is not a bad position. However, it spoils things later by moving slowly northwestwards... A good run for Scotland. Karyo
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Looks like a cold start to spring then! Karyo
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When I saw yesterday's local forecast I thought they should have mentioned the possibility of something wintry. However, today although their forecast was unchanged, it looked more on the money as the upper air temperatures for early next week look wrong side of marginal. 24 hours ago, things looked colder! Karyo
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Yes, thankfully! But quite a downgrade from what was shown before! Even the 6z yesterday was a snowfest, only for this to go downhill in subsequent runs. Karyo
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The more we approach the event, the more it becomes clear that the snowfest that the models were showing only a couple of days ago, will not happen! Instead, bands of rain and showers with some hill snow. The problems also is that the low is quite deep likely to cause air mixing, if it was a shallower feature with lighter winds, there would be a better chance for snow in the heavier bursts. The bbc northwest forecast, just like yesterday, showed rain for next week and not a mention of the 's' word! Karyo
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As we come closer to next week, things are looking more and more marginal! I won't be surprised to just get rain when the event arrives, with snow essentially on high ground! Good for the Pennines I suppose! However, the good news are that the models have nothing mild to offer on the further outlook. Also, GPs post was just what I wanted to read! Plenty of cold/below average weather on offer for the end of winter and the start of spring! Karyo
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Link please?
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Actually, this is the only thing that is missing from this winter for me! I've had loads of snow already but no snow storm/blizzard! You can tell how much the bar has been raised by such a fab winter! Let's hope the 12z is similar to the 6z! I doubt it but you never know... Karyo
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Based on the 6z GFS, I agree. However, are we just considering the most favourable output and choose to ignore the ECM and UKMO? The euros don't look anywhere near as good! Karyo
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The 6z is a tasty run despite moving the pattern west. It looks quite similar to the UKMO actually at 144 hours. However, I suspect it is overdoing the existing cold pool over the continent and the UK. The ECM has much higher upper temperatures over us and over the continent. I suppose if the pattern won't move east, it might as well move west/southwest, as it is the next best thing. Still, a shame that we are probably going to miss the proper arctic blast! Karyo
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The much desired shift eastwards does not seem to want to happen! Certainly not in the 0z output anyway... GFS and ECM have the low over the country while the UKMO places it to the west. So, it is becoming increasingly likely that the cold plunge will be waisted on the Atlantic! The bbc northwest forecast showed rain showers for Sunday and Monday with 7c! This may be overdoing the temperatures a bit but as things stand I don't see widespread snow! Karyo
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Thanks for posting those. As you say, not many members take the low east so unlikely to see major adjustments! Things for next week look interesting but marginal away from high ground! Karyo
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I agree, however, it has certainly shifted everything west, compared to the 12z and it is similar to the Euros. Not the trend that we want to see! Karyo
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I was hoping that the models would have adjusted the pattern eastwards but instead they moved it west again! There is no northerly on the ECM anymore I'm afraid. In fact the winds are coming from a generally southerly direction as the low dives from Scotland southwestwards. Cold enough for snow for a time but then rain and a rise in temperatures. FI is horrible looking! Karyo
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Yes, a much improved ECM 12z and a great relief to see. At 144 hours the block is a lot further east than in the 0z output. Delicious at 168 hours!! Karyo
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Indeed! This run shows the coldest air flooding south over the Atlantic rather than over us! The only saving grace is the low on the east coast of Canada which is angled in a way that stops the high pressure block moving further west. The UKMO is slow in updating today. Karyo
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I'd say it is a significant shift to the west and not a good trend! We need the ECM to start going with the gfs idea not the other way around! Karyo
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This is certainly a risk if things turn out as the ECM suggests. If it however takes the block a bit further east, it could be snoiwfest for most! The MJO is well and trully in phase 8 now http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif and we need it to stall there rathen than progress further. Karyo
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It is worrying but things can change for the better! In this case, shift east. It's funny but none of the gefs ensembles go with the ECM/GEM scenario. The 12z's will be interesting! Karyo
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The sun has gone wild recently with sunsports appearing all the time! The solar flux has also rocketed! Not good news if like me, you have enjoyed the quietness over the last year or two. Karyo
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I am not so keen on the Met Office update! It seems to go with the ECM & GEM scenario, as they expect rain or sleet with hill snow for next week. Snow at times at low levels only in the north. If the update was supporting the GFS scenario, there would be snow across the UK and not just the high ground! Karyo
