Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

karyo

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,499

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    I don't like how brief the warming is at the 30hpa level. Within a few days it goes back down to below average. http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php Karyo
  2. karyo
    I have no information about charts but I am sure there have been much more active periods in earth's history. Karyo
  3. karyo
    Thank you GP. It sounds very interesting and promising. However, I can't help but worry about the effect this may have on the Arctic ice. All this cold escaping out of the arctic and warm plumes reaching the area may mean a terrible summer melt! :-( Karyo
  4. karyo
    The 12z gfs gives more influence on next week's high pressure which offers the potential for some frost at night for England and Wales. The back to active Atlantic systems but cooler zonality this time with some snow on high ground. Nothing out of the ordinary and I can certainly see another wasted January in terms of deep cold and snow. This stratospheric warming seems more likely to benefit north America. Much further down the line, say February, our side of the world may also benefit but sadly I can't see this happening in January. Karyo
  5. karyo
    It's impressive viewing on the ECM north hemispheric charts a large 1055mb high set in over the Canadian Arctic with a cold flow over Canada and much of the USA! Unfortunately for us, it means more low pressure and strong winds after a calm week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 Karyo
  6. karyo
    There's never a shortage of interest in Indonesia! http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v6/newsworld.php?id=638164 Currently 7 volcanoes are on high alert! Karyo
  7. karyo
    Next week looks much calmer with generally light winds from the west/southwest. To say that it will feel springlike, is an understatement. Karyo
  8. karyo
    I think the 0z ECM is more convincing than the 12z from yesterday which seemed to bring the change very easily. It is going to take more than one attempt to remove the pv from Greenland but it is important that we see this process starting. The news from the stratosphere are better today, with another warming expected mid January and the mean zonal winds dropping to zero or just below. Karyo
  9. karyo
    I like the look of the ECM from 216 hours onwards however I don't find the evolution very convincing! We see here at 196 hours a significant low just off the coast of eastern Canada which looks like it is going to ride the Atlantic high and head east/northeast like so many other lows before it. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 However, instead of doing that it slows down and weakens at 216 hours as heights north of Greenland start to increase http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 and then by 240 hours the Atlantic high ridges northwards towards Greenland as the low weakens and gets absorbed by a deeper one that follows from the west http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 Let's hope this continues to show in future runs and as you say comes closer to the reliable timeframe. Karyo
  10. karyo
    The 12z is less amplified for the weekend and next week. As a result the brief northerly for next weekend has almost gone and the high pressure ridge does not extend as well to Scandinavia like it did in the 6z output. Karyo
  11. karyo
    I think that was the 2005/6 winter. The intense cold was frustratingly near but didn't properly reach us. At least we then had a slightly below average winter. Karyo
  12. karyo
    Yes, one of those in particular had a proper northerly with the Scandinavian trough very close to us and the block in the Atlantic orientated north to south. Instead we are seeing a west to northwesterly flow which is not cold as there is not enough amplification in the Atlantic and the stubborn high over Iberia/southwest Europe. Things can still change but for January we are starting to run out of time. Karyo
  13. karyo
    Is this an upgrade to what it was showing yesterday? I get the feeling that the stratospheric warming is developing too slowly to save January from being another mild month. February is our best chance I think. Karyo
  14. karyo
    I saw a brief covering of snow in mid December, just before the episode of cold zonality finished. Very few areas were lucky though. I'd exprect some wintry weather in February but will it be anything more than a cold snap? Today's CFS continues with the mild weather for January and average for February. Crucially, Scandinavia remains above average for the remainder of this winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif Karyo
  15. karyo
    Yes, the update takes us to the 1st February. Worrying times... Karyo
  16. karyo
    Thank you GP for the detailed update. As you say, it could go either way. I have to say I am not very hopeful for January as I can't see the PV weakening soon enough to save this month and the stratosphere seems to be warming only slowly! Karyo
  17. karyo
    Thank you for this, it's a very interesting and informative read! It is good that the volcano is expected to give warning signs of some days to weeks in advance of an eruption. Karyo
  18. karyo
    Another day another round of disappointing model output! You need to view the ECM north hemispheric chart to see some potential past 216 hours but that's been showing for several days now and doesn't want to come any closer. Karyo
  19. karyo
    If you go back to my post and read it you will see that I said 'some DM readers', not all of them. So I stick with what I said! Karyo
  20. karyo
    Is this volcano similar in power/explosive potential to Pinatumbo or is DM making stories again? Reading the comments below the article makes me realise how stupid some of the DM readers must be! Karyo
  21. karyo
    Unfortunately, the Greek authorities don't give much information about the depth of the earthquake which would help understand what's happening inside the volcano. This is hardly surprising to me, as when I lived in Greece I found hard to get any information about volcanoes - the only volcano I knew about was Santorini which has had small eruptions in the middle of the 20th century. Karyo
  22. karyo
    Nice to see the ECM updating at long last. The zonal winds are dropping quite nicely at the moment but are expected to pick up again in a few days time! Regarding the stratospheric temperatures, the 30hpa level is a concern for me as it hardly seem to respond to the warming at the 10hpa level. http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php We have to hope for a much stronger warming soon. Karyo
  23. karyo
    I am not referring to the detailed runs ala gfs but the temperature link that I provided in my earlier post. This updates once a day and has been remarkably consistent for several months now. If people choose not to consider what it shows then that's their choice but I have found it very useful and very close to the mark for several winters now. I was hoping it would turn out to be wrong this time but it's doing amazingly well. Karyo
  24. karyo
    I think January will be a repeat of December, just a touch milder! Our only hope is February... The CFS shows an average February for our part of Europe and above average in Russia and eastern Scandinavia. There is a lack of below average temperatures in most of Europe. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/euT2mMon.gif I have to say the CFS has been remarkably consistent since October and people who criticised it may have to acknowledge that pretty soon. Karyo
  25. karyo
    Is the ECM on holiday? It hasn't updated for two days! Any news from the gfs? Karyo
×
×
  • Create New...