karyo

Don In theory, we should see more westerlies this September but we may still end up with an above average month (temperature wise) but not as hot as the last one. There is an abandance of warmth in the northern hemisphere so even a westerly flow is not that cool anymore.

Don Usually hurricanes that move north in the Atlantic result in September heatwaves here. This year, the forecasts are talking for a more westerly track towards the Caribbean and Central America.

Don I think so too, I just want to see how bullish they are going to be. Some of the released forecasts are going for a record breaker season while all go for above average! E.G. Colorado State University is going for 25 named storms and 5 major hurricanes (which is a well above average season) while Pensilvania University has gone mad with their forecast, they predict 33 named storms and up to 10 major hurricanes!! Obviously, if Pensilvania University gets it right we would be talking for a historic hurricane season!

Intense heatwave in the Caribbean and Central America, also extending into the GOM. Several temperature records broken! Sea surface temperatures already well above normal and this heat dome doesn't look like shifting. NOAA will issue their hurricane season forecast in a few days, it will be interesting to see if they also go with an above average season like every other forecast has done so far this spring.

raz.org.rain Indeed, and the Atlantic marine heatwave is giving rise to some eye watering forecasts for the hurricane season. Every forecast I have seen goes for a well above average season (some even for a record breaker) with higher number of storms entering the caribbean and GOM.

Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season. https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/94d900bc-eae8-49f2-bdf5-09e2aace931a?utm_source=connatix&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=link

Accuweather has issued their forecast for the 2024 hurricane season. A combination of a warm Atlantic and a developing La Nina is expected to give a lot of fuel to the hurricane season. https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/94d900bc-eae8-49f2-bdf5-09e2aace931a?utm_source=connatix&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=link

On top of the ENSO, what I find really interesting is how well above average are the SSTs in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. In particular, the key area from the west coast of Africa, the Cabo Verde islands and all the way to the Leeward islands and the carribean. If those positive anomalies are maintained for the coming months, they are likely to encourage a lot of tropical storm activity. Even last summer, despite the developing en nino, we saw a lot of tropical activity as the warm Atlantic managed to overide to some extent the effects of the El Nino. This summer, with the El Nino out of the picture there should be less shear and more storms likely to make it to the carribean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Don Yes Don, chasing cold spells has become tiring. A lot of effort for very small return. If it was a job, we would give it up!

Don The Met Office may as well stop publishing those updates! They are always playing catch up with developments. I guess climate change is overriding a lot of factors that can lead to a cold spell.

It is a downgrade all round! lol

@lassie23 Yes, they usually give the kiss of death to any cold spell!

Basically the mild spell is getting upgraded in duration every day! If you go back 10 days or so, they were saying that the weather would be dominated by high pressure and cold temperatures. Any mild unsettled spells were going to be brief and mainly in the south. Then they went for a change to less cold/milder weather until the end of January before the cold high re-establishes itself with winds from the north and east. Then in recent days, the mild unsettled weather got extended by approximately one more week... and in today's update until there is a further extension until the middle of February at the very least! Yes, we are chasing a rainbow!

Don't worry guys, the Met Office update will flip to something colder again before the winter is over. Whether the update will be followed by a cold spell is another matter of course...

If they expected the easterly to be potent, they would mention snow showers on eastern coasts.