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Everything posted by Theresnoway
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Theresnoway replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
johncam I’m not predicting some kind of winter nirvana, but blocks do tend to put up more of a fight than often modelled. So some kind of a middle ground would be most likely IMHO. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Theresnoway replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Frosty. Having been on this forum for a very long time and gained a feel for peoples weather preferences, you actually got me there! I was thinking well of Frosty’s thrown in the towel, we’re all doomed! -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Theresnoway replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike Poole There was a period down south between roughly 2000 and 2010 where we had hardly any snow, then came along 2010, 2013 and 2018. So although we won’t get favourable conditions every year, I still believe the right synoptics will come around eventually, even given longer term changes in climate. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Theresnoway replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stuie Very wise, but occasionally a trend does get picked up on , and come to fruition. Having not been following the models all winter, I probably have more patience and hope than others. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
Theresnoway replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stuie Indeed, on the short ensembles shown, all looks pretty mild. I believe the excitement for cold weather fans comes after this period, which may or may not materialise. Lots of changes to come, but better than the weather being shown in recent days. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Theresnoway replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Theresnoway replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If you take the operationals as gospel, then a very fair assessment. The models have definitely wobbled today, that is for sure. But given the difficulty forecasting the current setup, the varying model and ensemble outputs, I won’t be writing snow off in the south off just yet. Let’s see what the models show in the next 48 hours, I think we’ll have a better idea then. More concerned than yesterday? Yes! Throwing my toys out of the pram, not yet . -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Theresnoway replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Given the amount of variance we’re seeing with regards to the position of Thursday’s low, within different runs and models, I think using postage stamps as a guide to probability is a better way forward than taking each deterministic as gospel. -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Theresnoway replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Probably best to compare charts that relate to the same time. -
The UK Met going for 60% chance of the low on Thursday / Friday crossing southern areas, with the cold block putting up more resistance than some runs are showing. 20% further north with rain in the south and 20% further south, with the precipitation in north France. Still all to play for! Hopeful for a good set of 12zs https://youtu.be/aZDJpeH8jFg
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Theresnoway replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wouldn’t be too disappointed, it’s one det run 7 days out. Still all to play for in terms of potential outcomes. -
Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Theresnoway replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hey! is there a way to ignore certain users posts via my phone? There are some posters I would really like to use it on. Thanks