Paul_1978

Jeez that doesn't bode well for my train journey from London back up to Yorkshire at 5.30pm tomorrow. As regards the GFS 6z, it looks like it's going to remain cold to Saturday, perhaps a slight warm up on Sunday but with the cold digging back in by Monday as the next low passes through..

Well what I'm taking from the GFS so far this morning is that is that it's going to be a week of fluctuations. The snow line will be in various places across the country over the week - there will be cold periods with snow, and less cold periods with rain. For those who like snow, we will get some; for those who don't you'll get your less cold spells with rain. Overall an interesting week ahead and that's why we're all here because we love the weather. Personally I'll have to keep watching the forecast as I am supposed to be in London on Wednesday, travelling down from Yorkshire and back again later in the day. Could be a bit dodgy... we shall see!

Come on now.....

4C-6C in Yorkshire is just a chilly day, not particularly cold. A way to go for the really cold weather people are looking for.

Doesn’t look cold at face value, and in fact rather dry too. Good synoptics, so we’ll see if we can get some cold as we enter March.

"A clear outlier".......but only for 24 hours...? Very tightly packed from 17th to 24th Feb.

Having enjoyed the almost spring-like weather recently, I for one am not particularly looking forward to any upcoming colder weather. I love snow but would have preferred it in Dec and Jan, not as we are about to enter March!

Quick Trop Response

Nothing interesting has been on the cards before day 8 on any model anyway. GFS turning out alright in the end. We need to reel these decent charts in with a rod and line!

This may have already been mentioned, apologies if it has. Marco from the Met Office tweeted that if a warming does occur then it is expected to have no impact on our weather as the strat and trop are not coupled. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4796251

It’s the second tweet down - for some reason copying the link has quoted both the first and the second.

This may have already been mentioned, apologies if it has. Marco from the Met Office tweeted that if a warming does occur then it is expected to have no impact on our weather as the strat and trop are not coupled.

Yesterday's video suggested there was a 25% chance of an SSW (obviously as things stood on 18/01), but the picture may have changed/improved today? I don't think the MO's text forecasts would change until the probability is higher, and as we know an SSW is not a guarantee of anything anyway, In fact it probably makes things even more complicated than normal when it comes for forecasting

Don’t keep being so negative mate. With a possible impending SSW, all bets are off as far as I’m concerned.

This thread is extraordinarily quiet given what is potentially in the offing, so here is a Tweet to get the discussion going.

Funnily enough I have just been running through the charts from Dec 1974, Jan to March 1975. I noticed that the weather was predominantly westerly from Dec to Feb and then all of a sudden a cold March came out of nowhere but not until around the 10th: 18th March looks bitterly cold too, with a low pushing up from France by 20th. ....the last chart perhaps being similar to one of the famous Feb 1991 charts: So whilst the winter of 1974/75 seemed generally mild, it certainly went out with a bang. Would be interested to hear of anyone else's memories of March 1975.

Great post - a little known event not talked about very often. Cheers!

I genuinely hope that is tongue in cheek in you’re literally not writing off the rest of winter!!

A bizarre 18z GFS. Pretty much the same low pressure system stuck in the Atlantic for 200 hours. I’m not buying that!

Reservoir levels are still low though, so rain is much needed. Fine balance though between wanting to fill reservoirs and not wanting issues with flooding. (ps great username)

I genuinely don’t know which 18z run you’re looking at as this is another great GFS run on the whole that we’d have all given our right arms for in November!

12z GFS is turning into one of the great runs of all time! Coupled with today's MO update, let's hope it is onto something, but there's a big divergence amongst the models at the minute. But hey, this is why we all love model watching right? The next chase is on!

No they are not. Don’t forget Ian Fergusson’s recent tweet which suggested he rated ICON and GEM more than the GFS!

Well that isn’t what we wanted to hear. Seems at odds with Matt Hugo’s thoughts earlier though unless I am misinterpreting? Edit: Matt’s post was focused on Christmas and New Year - you’re looking much further ahead.