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Paul_1978

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Everything posted by Paul_1978

  1. Paul_1978
    Which, if it verifies, means a weaker jet stream perhaps.....
  2. Paul_1978
    You could've fooled us NWS! There's 12 days of December left yet. A bit early to be giving up on next month!
  3. Paul_1978
    Strong jet stream looks ominous, but does it necessarily mean its going to plough straight through the UK or "over the top"?
  4. Paul_1978
    I think with charts like this getting turned out it could be quite busy!
  5. Paul_1978
    It's got to be the winter of 1978/1979 for me! I was only 1 year old at the time, but would love to go back as a grown up to experience that winter.
  6. Paul_1978
    Well well, surely there has got to be snow in this chart from the 06z T+222?
  7. Paul_1978
    I think we're all at that crossroads where we're waiting for the background signals alluded to, to manifest themselves in a favourable model output. It's interesting but frustrating all at the same time. Cant help but thinking something is going to change suddenly but it's getting nerve-wracking!
  8. Paul_1978
    Something is definitely afoot!
  9. Paul_1978
    Indeed. The Atlantic height rises are getting more pronounced as each run goes by. A good trend.
  10. Paul_1978
    No, the bold bits of the blog were updated this morning. https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/940490098197528576
  11. Paul_1978
    Yes the blog is from 4 days ago, but he Tweeted a link at about 07:45 this morning stating he has updated it with the bits in bold. So the bold bits are from today. https://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/940490098197528576
  12. Paul_1978
    Whilst watching the model output in the next few days, it would be worth bearing in mind John Hammond's updated Blog, updated sections in bold published this morning. https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
  13. Paul_1978
    One straw I can grasp this morning is a comparison to winter 1990/91: Major December snow event - check (remember Dec 1990!) Milder period after that. (Check out Christmas Day 1990, yuk). And keep your fingers and toes and everything else crossed for another Feb 1991! The output is not great at the moment if it's cold your after but without wanting to go over old ground there are still a few straws to clutch in various places.
  14. Paul_1978
    Not in so many words! See the Model Tweets thread.
  15. Paul_1978
    Well well, even out to T+180, no Atlantic intrusions to speak of are on offer. Yes the odds are in favour of this happening (I'm not in denial), but we can't say the output this season and today isn't without interest again. Gripping stuff!
  16. Paul_1978
    https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/940167134881214466 https://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/940149880693166080 Highlights from the above Tweets:
  17. Paul_1978
    I don't think anyone is in denial at all TEITS. We all fully expect a milder period in the run up to Christmas, no one seems to be disputing that. It's after Christmas that is the period of interest, based upon the thoughts of GP and Tamara, and also the 16-30 day MO outlook which still states: UK Outlook for Monday 25 Dec 2017 to Monday 8 Jan 2018: During the Christmas period we are likely to see a transition from spells of wet and windy weather moving across the UK, towards more generally benign weather becoming established. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall.
  18. Paul_1978
    Interesting GFS this morning. Whilst the ECM goes "mild" at T+144 and stays mild, the Atlantic never gets in on the GFS til low res. Lots to be resolved and although you would feel the return to milder weather may have the odds in its favour, it's not an open and shut case.
  19. Paul_1978
    I don't disagree @frosty - we've been talking about this for a few days now. Beyond that..... all to play for!
  20. Paul_1978
    But we've known this for quite a few days now Frosty. Everyone knows we're going to have a milder or "less cold" spell. The post suggested a worry about longer term outputs and I don't know why when many of our learned posters have suggesting a return to colder weather late in Dec/early Jan. Again we've known this for some days now. Now is the time to relax and wait and not unduly worry about the short/medium term output in my view. We are only 10 days into winter after all.
  21. Paul_1978
    You really are a pessimist aren't you NWS ;-) You don't seem convinced by these apparent longer term signals then, and the fact that much of the model output at the minute (espcially the later stages) can be taken with a large pinch of salt? I don't see Ian F's tweet at particularly concerning tbh.
  22. Paul_1978
    Not necessarily! The models will not be picking up on these background signals for a while yet, perhaps for another another 5-7 days in my view.
  23. Paul_1978
    It's so far away it's hardly worth mentioning.
  24. Paul_1978
    Well one thing's for sure, we're out to T+207 and it's hardly an Atlantic onslaught!
  25. Paul_1978
    I've thought of another rating that could be useful, "Friendly". So the full list of available ratings could be: Thank You Like Agree Disagree Confused Sad Informattive Friendly Optimistic Funny
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