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  • Gender
  • Location
    Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Interests
    Travel, reading, weather, holidays and grandchildren (not in that order!).
  • Weather Preferences
    hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring

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  1. Oh come on it’s nearly Christmas....what’s not to like? Love this time of year, Nov-Dec is brilliant! All the lights, music, shoppers, exited kids plus the prospect of snow...fantastic!
  2. Bobd29

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    Brave, reasoned and fairly specific....well done Roger and thanks, April review will be interesting.
  3. I have no doubts at all that we are experiencing GW but I also believe the planet has been even warmer in the past and still the NH had very cold winters. Just look at our tiny segment last March and that in spring! Much of Eastern Europe in recent years and the USA has experienced severe winter cold that has lasted for weeks. Japan has recorded record snowfall. So there is ample evidence to show that even recent times have not precluded cold winters in the NH despite GW, just the Placing has eluded our tiny patch except last spring. if without the effects of very low sunspot activity, and possibly entering a Grand Minimum, there have been severe NH winters then surely having these conditions will increase the likelihood of a prolonged severe winter in our backyard despite the existence of GW which I fully recognise. Be it this year or next I am confident that I will see a very snowy winter again.
  4. Always appreciated Fred, whatever the outcome you are brave enough to put your often contrary views out there. Look forward to your thoughts, good luck.
  5. Cloudy in Trowbridge yesterday, cloudy today! Frustrating when the sun line is only 20-30 miles away.
  6. Agree Jeff and if you combine this with Steve Murr’s new thread then the coming winter may get very interesting. Beginning to feel a little optimistic.
  7. Missed this recently from my favourite denier: Joe Bastardi anyone paying attention to big drops in Indian Ocean and Atlantic Temps FROM LAST YEAR never mind super nino year. . Any idea of the implications of that kind of drop with the MJO or other major drivers, You'll find out this winter with modoki enso and MJO in colder phases Add that little snippet to the facts of solar minima and there is ample enthusiasm for the winter ahead imo.
  8. Hi NK my reference was to the effect of GW on macro climatic conditions which in themselves may mitigate the effects of solar minimum expectations at ground level. I accept GW will not directly affect solar minima having an effect.
  9. That’s quite a statement Fred....any of the next 3 winters has a 1 in 3 chance of being truly epic with high confidence that at least one will be. This despite any effects of GW. will you be doing a full winter forecast this year Fred?
  10. Hi Fred I share your general thoughts on the effects of solar minima but I wonder if there will be a gradual effect on our winters over a few years or whether the effect will be more dramatic in that we will experience a severe winter out of context of previous winters either this winter or the next couple? I assume as we enter a period of very low minima you anticipate that cold/cooler winters will become the norm for a protracted period?