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Everything posted by Long haul to mild
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I’ve been looking through the precipitation charts for the coming weekend and see that, apart from over Northern hills, the breakdown is just going to involve rain. Could someone with more technical knowledge than me (that’s most on this thread ) tell me why, with all the cold air in place across the UK, it won’t involve at the very least a snow to rain event for all?
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Met Office and BBC in fairly decent agreement for my neck of the woods tomorrow, but that’s quite a difference for Tuesday! Why are they so far apart?
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Long haul to mild replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surprised to see the single 40 on this chart is so relatively close to the coast, would have thought that further inland would be the prone spots? -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Long haul to mild replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
Long haul to mild replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Only two or three runs don’t bring in the 20 isotherm on Monday; that’s pretty incredible really. Also notable that most continue the extreme heat into Tuesday too, unlike the ECM which seems to have a very different ending that day. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Long haul to mild replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Agreed, St Jude was, for about an hour or so, really quite frightening. It never got to that level here today despite being quite a strong storm. -
Noticed this earlier; big difference in the lying snow amounts between the 18z and 03z UKV. Accumulations on 03z in EA small and only near the Suffolk and Essex coast, whereas North Kent gets plastered. Rogue run or a trend? I suspect these charts aren’t necessarily to be relied on, hence the mention of experimental but that’s quite a big change.
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Well, had about 2-3cm here to start the day and a further top up to about 4 or 5cm about 10am but after that it's been dry and mostly sunny and any snow that was in the sunlight has all melted. Looking like some heavy showers expected for a time overnight as the wind direction changes before they become lighter and more scattered during tomorrow, so could be a repeat performance of today. Thursday looks dry and then it's all eyes on Friday potentially. I like snow but that's probably enough for me now, I'd prefer it to get more spring like as we go into March. However, hope that places that have missed out so far get some luck tomorrow with that wind direction change or on Friday with the approaching front.
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The Amber warning is because of the more persistent band of snow heading from the NE on Tuesday which is going to miss us to the West. EA and SE will be affected more by showers so any Amber warnings issued here will be probably be short notice as they will be based on streamers setting up. Lots going on!
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Latest warnings from the MO suggest there could even be a couple of cms overnight tonight in coastal areas but the main action will still be later tomorrow and through Tuesday. Looks like it will all be showers (EA and SE won't get hit by the more persistent band which move NE-SW across areas further to the North) so perhaps a bit hit and miss but I'm sure we will see streamers setting up in places. Appears that the showers will start dying out on Wednesday pm as the winds swing more the SE and Thursday looks dry but bitterly cold. Then the huge question mark over Friday; currently suggests a period of snow maybe turning to sleet and rain later but this is really on a knife edge and won't be resolved for some days yet. All far more interesting than the usual Atlantic dross we get most of the time!
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Also, the precipitation forecast percentages on the BBC app nowadays appear to have been randomly plucked from the air and are always really low, even when very unsettled weather is forecast. It's always been my bugbear with Meteogroup from when I used their Weatherpro app; they'll tell you there's a 10% chance of rain even though you know there's a frontal system heading in, then when it gets here and it starts tipping it down, it changes the probability to 100%! Great.
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Long haul to mild replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, ARPEGE is being really stubborn with the placement of that HP but it is very slowly getting dragged North. I looked through the GEFS and can only find one member that looks like it out of 20, so hopefully it will soon ditch this and keep moving Northward. I rate the ARPEGE and often follow it in the summer; it's precipitation charts are usually the most accurate at short range. Not sure what it is like at these mid ranges though; it's very different to UKMO and ECM at Day 5 but surely the latter two will have a better handle on it? -
Model output discussion - mid-winter
Long haul to mild replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, Ipswich beat Leicester 3-0 and you couldn't tell where the white lines were on the pitch; amazing it got finished really. I detest wind storms with every fibre of my being so I have everything crossed for lots of Southward corrections over the coming runs. Rather concerned that the 18Z takes it North again, there doesn't seem to be much of a consensus at all on its track at present. The UKMO isn't that interested in it at all (although I haven't seen the latest Fax charts) whereas the ECM and to a slightly lesser extent the GFS want to destroy the country with it!- 2,572 replies
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Looks like that's probably it for today now here; been lucky really, it snowed for about 2 hours this morning giving a covering of about 4cm. Enough for a decent snowball fight with the kids anyway. Hopefully the places that didn't get any today will soon do so in the days and weeks ahead; plenty of winter to go.