Basil_Fawlty_Walks_On_Water

My run is becoming less and less likely...

Sort of. An ensemble mean will (almost) never be as extreme in that sort of situation, as it is the mean of all solutions on offer, so less amplified runs will reduce its potency. It is best used for trends rather than assessing tracks of specific systems, as it is not actually a specific model run, just an average of many. So a dramatically weaker low from the ensemble mean should, essentially, mean that there isn't uniform support for the op run. However, it is probably more useful to look at the individual members themselves.

Totally agree with this, at least for the next week or so. Considering the winter we've had so far, there is no way anyone should be writing off a more progressive, Atlantic-influenced solution, so can't rule out the GFS yet. However, there are certainly some indications that a much colder period is imminent, and a middle ground solution could end up with a run of undercutting lows which could provide some snow even without a truly cold easterly. Interesting times ahead! Also, interesting to finally discover the meaning of "FI". Have been lurking for years and always assumed this was "foreca