Frosty.

Yes it's looking like an increasingly very warm and humid weekend in the s / se, ukmo 12z looks good for those areas.

speaking of this weekend, it could be 80F in the south on Saturday as an unusually deep depression for July heading for NW Scotland helps to scoop up more of a southerly draw..the warmest day of this spell.

If you thought the Gfs 6z operational was just a fluke with its hot plume, it isn't, there are some very promising 6z perturbations showing plumes and anticyclonic scenarios through the mid to late July period.. so, although flaming June went in the bin, there is a possibility that the second half of July could breathe some much needed life into summer 2016!. And who knows what August could bring.

The GEFS 6z mean is improving, it really is! There is increasing Azores High ridge influence through the mid July period, especially further south....this indicates spells of fine and warm weather, at least for the south of the BI.

Yes it's what this dismal summer is crying out for, some heat and dry weather, even in the horrible summer last year we had that one spectacular hot plume when temps hit 37c 99f at Heathrow on July 1st 2015..hopefully things will change.

And charts like these from the 6z make me wish it was summer!

Charts like these from the Gfs 6z make me wish it was winter already!... Brrrrr

Charts?

That will truly be a day to cherish when knockers charts support high pressure..

The GEFS 12z mean, longer term indicates the south has a good chance of being influenced by the Azores high (ridging) with spells of fine and warm weather and the met office update earlier mentioned something similar. There is also hope for the rest of the uk too from some of the 12z perturbations which show various anticyclonic scenarios from mid month onwards so although this summer so far could be politely called mixed, most of us could use stronger language to describe it....but hang in there. I remain hopeful that our luck will change before August!

It's not that bad, after the fine spell it looks like a return to sunshine and heavy, thundery showers with temps close to 70F. There is plenty of time for heatwaves yet, for all we know, August could be a sizzler chin up.

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean mirrors the op with a general warming trend through the week ahead, Friday probably the warmest day in the south with mid 20s celsius and a good deal of fine, sunny weather across southern areas in the next five days. The northwest becomes more unsettled and then towards the end of the run, a trough in the north Atlantic drifts over the UK with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers and temps high teens to low 20s c from north to south.

The week ahead is going to become noticeably warmer according to the Ecm 12z with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius across the southern third / half of the UK during the second half of the week, especially southern / southeast England as warmer uppers (T850s) gradually spill across most of the BI from the southwest. The other good news is a ridge of high pressure builds across the south bringing largely dry and fine conditions for a while although central UK has a few rainy spells to deal with early in the week before conditions improve for Wed / Thurs. The fine spell lasts longest across the SE.The NW of the UK becomes more generally unsettled later in the week and eventually the fine spell breaks down further south, possibly with thundery rain / showers as it still looks warm and humid in the south of the uk towards the end of the week. Another ridge attempts to build into the south at the end of the week but the end of the run shows a trough slowly drifting east over the north of the UK so a cyclonic end with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers with temps closer to average but for the south in particular, most of the next 5 days or so look much better than recently, at least feeling like summer again!

The GEFS 12z mean shows high pressure settling in across the south for a time during the week ahead so it should be mainly dry with some sunshine and light winds across the s / se...good news for Wimbledon! Thereafter, the unsettled weather to the northwest becomes widespread by the end of the week and then it's a changeable outlook with some fine and warm spells across the south as the Azores high occasionally ridges closer to the southwest of the UK...so, in a nutshell, south has the best potential with central and northern areas progressively less so but one thing I noticed is the troughing to the NW looks like weakening / filling by mid July onwards so the second half of the month could be better, at least further south.

You're welcome, timing of the rain band is uncertain for now, it could push through on Friday evening / night leaving Saturday with sunshine and only a few showers but good luck with the weather anyway. :- )

My guess is unsettled with a band of rain working across from the w / sw. timing difficult at this range but behind the rain it looks brighter with sunshine and then showers, some heavy and thundery. I would prepare for saturday being an unsettled day following the drier and brighter spell through most of the week ahead in the south.

The last time we had a winter, there is hope after all

I should add some balance to my earlier post showing those peachy 6z perturbations, there were also some horrible charts showing cool, windy unsettled weather but since we have seen enough of that cr*p already this summer, i decided to post the eye candy instead

I don't think knocker will ever be on my side, in winter he doesn't like cold and in summer he posts the coolest most unsettled charts he can find.. only joking malcolm.

Don't give up on a warm / very warm / hot spell developing during the second half of July. The Gefs 6z mean shows support for a warm spell as there are some peachy perturbations scattered throughout, a few hot spanish plumes too so don't give up..keep dreaming that this poor summer will dramatically improve before August! P18 anyone?

The GEFS 6z mean shows the ridge in the week ahead and further on looks encouraging for the second half of July with the Azores high more influential and a good chance of a warm spell evolving.

It should improve once Article 50 is activated

Agreed, will be nice to see summer return after a thoroughly autumnal week

Yes Gavin, the last week was autumnal, the week ahead its summer again, no complaints.. today looks good too! :- )

Much better than the last week which was unsettled and unseasonably cool, becoming drier, brighter and warmer during the week ahead according to the gfs / ecm / ukmo & gem 00z, especially further south with temps back into the 70's F where they should be in july!