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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Which model is showing that?.I'm intrigued -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hats off to you in that case. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed, batten down the hatches but still the experts not going with a full blown unsettled spell with continental heights still influencing the S / E. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shows how poor winter is when I'm happy to see a chilly westerly zonal flow. Yippee, Ecm 12z rocks! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Ecm 12z certainly shows a full on unsettled / disturbed spell compared to the met office who are still mentioning high pressure influence for the southeast with the main unsettled weather further NW. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fair to say the end of the Ecm 12z doesn't indicate a return to benign anticyclonic weather any time soon after..becomes increasingly unsettled and cold enough for snow on northern hills at times. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Although the GEFS 12z mean trends generally more unsettled (zonal) from the second half of next week until around Boxing day, high pressure builds from the south between xmas and new year and looks like persisting into 2017 with largely settled conditions across most of the uk with night frosts and fog where skies clear and rather cool bright days but where fog lingers, feeling particularly cold. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Good point, I think front loaded MLB winter sums it up bar the occasional unsettled blip. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Again, any unsettled weather looks brief with a return to benign anticyclonic conditions from boxing day thru to the new year according to the Gfs 00z. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sticking to the reliable, the Gfs 18z shows high pressure building in again and at its strongest this weekend but even into early next week a ridge is still in place so a decent window of fine weather is on the way with day time temps cooling down and nights becoming cold enough for slight frosts with fog patches forming too where skies clear. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Folk in the north (snow fans) will be hoping for this, there is even a risk of snow on hills further south too..it would be a white christmas eve at least in parts of scotland..not so good for the south but great for the ski centres in Scotland who have had an absolutely miserable start to the winter season since that November cold snap..good luck to them I say, indeed, good luck to us all -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jeez there's no pleasing some people, the Ecm 12z shows our first proper blast of cold zonality which is much better than the stagnant mild settled bore fest we have had so far this winter! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
520 dam thicknesses in the north on tonight's Ecm 12z, the Scottish skiing industry would welcome this with open arms, a blast of cold zonality with plenty of snow for higher ground in the north. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There would be snow in northern uk which would be welcome for the scottish ski centres. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A spell of cold zonality towards the end of the Ecm 12z which would be very welcome as it would be the first cold zonal weather of the winter!some of us would see snow from this, mainly in the north and not just on hills. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's not set in stone yet, we could still end up with a typical nw / se split as per met office update with the south and east doing quite well for fine weather due to high pressure influence from mainland europe. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The GEFS 12z mean trends unsettled from T+168 hours and continues during christmas before high pressure returns between xmas / new year. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cold zonality with a nw / se aligned jet will do nicely I will go buy a blue crayon -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At least with zonality you have a chance of upstream amplification, especially with a disrupted pv..i like the sound of cold zonal -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let's hope its a blue crayon There is a risk with zonality but it's not like we have a choice, the weather does what it wants but I would be happy to see us break out of this current rut which is eating into winter with nothing of interest happening. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know the risks but I'm losing patience with this sluggish pattern with the euro trash high, I'm hoping support keeps growing for a marked change because the current rut leads to nowheresville. -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Zonal is the way forward out of this rut, especially if it involves cold zonality..christmas isn't a lost cause yet! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It would be a blessing if it does turn more mobile with zonal conditions as the current sluggish slow moving pattern is just eating into winter and on a road to nowhere! -
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
Frosty. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice to see some wintry action during the festive season, hope the Gfs 00z is right Hope we see snow soon!