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Everything posted by Upgrade

  1. Malham Cove waterfall in the Yorkshire Dales running for first time in hundreds of years...
  2. Two consecutive 35 degree days forecast for Melbourne on Monday and Tuesday, if it comes off it will be the earliest 35 degree day in the year by about a week , and the first ever two consecutive 35 degree days in October.
  3. Looks like an early season heatwave is on the way for south east Aus. Bom going for up to 4 days with temps around 30 for Melbourne and much warmer inland from the coming weekend. El Niño springs have historically been more likely to have heatwaves.
  4. Polar outbreaks here are quite different than the type you get in the UK due to vast areas of ocean to all points south. Still getting my head around how it al works down here ! It is fascinating though and great to live in a part of oz with snow potential in winter essentially on our doorstep. It has been a colder winter this year in south East oz tham for many years partic in tassie victoria and South Australia although perhaps reflective of the run of warmer than average winters prior. Hard to know if El Niño has had anything to do with it.
  5. Melbourne's coldest night for 18 years and coldest July night since 1994 with many parts of the city and surrounds below zero. http://m.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-weather-city-shivers-through-coldest-morning-in-18-years-20150718-gifi9l.html
  6. http://m.weatherzone.com.au/news/melbournes-frigid-week-nearing-its-coldest-point/329016 Supposedly the coldest week for 19 years in Melb. We've had 2 sub 10 degree days this month and a couple sub 11 , as well as days with lengthy spells of cold rain, not too frequent here. It felt bitter on Sunday with it pouring all daylight hours and a temp of 6-7 degrees much of the day until evening when it warmed up to around 11. Monday and Tues this week were not much better . Felt like a London winter a bit! The coldest pool of air slid past Melb and headed from the west to tote north of the country . However there has been a decent amount of snow in the Victorian Alps to kick off the ski season properly, which had got off to a very slow start this year. Looks like temps are on their way back up to the seasonal average of 14-16 by the end of this weekend. And this cold spell may be the worst of the winter behind us.
  7. Hi guys , still here and check in to net weather every now and then from down here in Melbourne! Australian Bureau of Meteorology going quite strongly for El Niño now in their latest fortnightly update today. Looks like it's on the cards.....it's been a dry autumn here in Vic so far, we are hoping for more rain but El ninos usually mean dry weather for South East Aus. Interesting times. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/archive/ensowrap_20150428.pdf
  8. Melbourne had it's first day over 20c since 27 May, on Thursday 22 August! Hopefully a sign that spring is around the corner. Yesterday was also beautiful.
  9. A lovely week or so here in Melbourne, balmy days of 20-22 and mild nights of 15-17, though last week had some cooler mornings. Really enjoying this late autumn warmth. Feels like En Nino may have already arrived.
  10. Records are not just being broken, they are being smashed to oblivion.
  11. Melbourne has recorded 7 days over 40 degrees c this year so far, beating it's previous record of 6 days, in over 100 years of records. The average number of days over 40 in an average year is 1.3. In addition Melbourne has just recorded it's hottest 30 day period ever, beating a record set only last year. Amazing times. The climate seems to be becoming more extreme down here .
  12. It's late here, so i'll be brief (ish) but a couple of things spring to mind after another day in Melbourne in the 40's today ( and 44 tomorrow and 42 Friday forecast). I've lived in Oz just over a year and am not a native but this is hot even for locals. Despite general perceptions overseas of Oz being hot and sunny all the time, full of deserts and dusty bush etc generally the coastal cities where 85% of Australians live are located in reasonably green, temperate regions in which to live,most of the year. hot spells are a feature of aussie summers but in the south and east rarely last more than a day or two at a time, with a spike in temperature followed by a large drop ( up to 20 degrees c) with the lower temperature periods being longer lasting than the high ones. despite being on the same latitude in the southern hemipshere as athens is in the north, melbourne generally has a much more temperate summer climate than athens - albeit with these ocassional spikes of heat. What seems to be "new" here is the length and extremity of the hot spells. 4 days over 40 for Melbourne isnt at all usual. and it's only 4 years since the last session like this one. and 2013 was the hottest summer recorded in 150 years. When you combine it with raging 12 or 13 UV ratings and strong winds and temperatures like last night of 37.1 deg C at 115 in the morning..... life quickly becomes really unpleasant. Add to this dry lightning storms, fires and power outages and you start to get the picture. You really don't need a 2 week heatwave of these sorts of conditions for life to start getting difficult - 3 days of it creates havoc. The pressure belts seem to have moved south over the decades,leading to longer lasting hot blasts from the inland deserts. Who knows what lies in the future - is this just part of the natural variation? to see numerous birds and other animals dropped dead on the ground doesn't seem normal, though i don't have long years of experience here. Australia's evironment can be savage, but sights like that are still shocking to me.
  13. Much of Melbourne reached 43 today, certainly got a shock when i looked at my phone earlier and it was showing 46... think it was a degree of two out - but not much. Yes, looks like 4 days of 40+ in Melbourne starting today , which is unusual in a city known for it's cool changes - normally we would get 1 day of 40 per year, and a couple of near misses. To get 4 in a row comfortably over 40, as is forecast, if it comes off ( and the models have actually been continuing to upgrade the heat the nearer to the event ) would be pretty exceptional. With 850s looking to be around 28 degrees on Thursday you have to wonder whether 43-45 for Melbourne might be achieved. Night temps also very notable - may not drop below 30 overnight on Thursday into Friday. Adelaide's forecast for tomorrow (45) and Thursday (46) after 45 degrees today is just plain frightening, especially with dry lightning around and some wind. I think but may be wrong that if this comes off it will be the first time an Australian capital city has had 3 consecutive days over 45 degrees. Although the bush is not as tinder dry as it was in 2009, and the wind not forecast to be particularly strong, any kind of effective fire fighting ( or actually doing anything out of doors ) in these temperature is near impossible so the forecasts are very worrying . Off to the beach now, it's 10pm and 37 degrees here................just nice for a dip in the cool waters of the bay .
  14. Very high temperatures reported inland over the last few days. However it has been very mild - cool alonht the south coast. Its 4pm on a summer's afternoon in Melbourne and it's currently 16 degrees, blustery and rainy. Lots of southerly and westerly influences so far this summer. A real lack of sustained heat so far.
  15. Yes, the inland heatwave is reaching incredibly hot temperatures. Fortunately this isnt affecting the major cities at the moment. I wonder whether it may be reinforced during January and may come to affect the cities though? Melbourne has been reasonably mild (cool) this spring and early summer. Other than the 39 degree day just before Christmas there's been little in the way of heat compared with last year. However last year was my first year in Oz so perhaps this year is more normal for around these parts. I had a great road trip over Christmas , drove all the way fro Melbourne to Sydney inland, and then up right up the NSW coast (to South West Rocks as it turned out!) and back again. it was fascinating to see the changes in climate and flora along the way. North and West of the dividing range is a different world climatically - it was so hot compared to the coast. And amazing as one drives north of sydney how sub tropical it quickly becomes. A happy new year to all.
  16. Certainly the big story has been the NSW fires, although just 450 miles away, Victoria is green and lush, and on days like today when it's been cool and wet you feel quite glad that we've had a fair amount of wet weather here and consequently the fire risk is very low at the moment in the forests around Victoria.
  17. Melbourne's typically schizophrenic spring continues. Yesterday - 27 degrees at 4pm Today - 9 degrees at 4pm Saturday we're due another 27 degree day! We had low humidity yesterday, gusty, bone dry northerly winds. Today it's been hailstorms and southwesterly thunderstorms!
  18. Was a cold one today in Melbourne after a lovely 25 degree day yesterday. Tipped out at 16 this arvo, and only around 13 for much of the day .
  19. 37 in Sydney today............ Melbourne's at midnight was 24 degrees, but by 3 this afternoon it was 15 degrees....lol .
  20. Looks like 37 degrees in Sydney tomorrow, 35 in Adelaide and the first 30 of the season here in Melbourne. We had 43 days where the temperature reached 30 degrees last summer with the first on 4 October 2012 and the last one on 27 March 2013. We're back into the crazy ups and downs for the next couple of months here in Vic, where it can be 15 one day and 32 the next. It will be a year since i emigrated down under on 1 November, and i find the weather in Victoria as endlessly fascinating as ever, and just as entertaining as in the UK.
  21. Spring has certainly jump-started in Melbourne after the warmest winter on record with a very warm few days and temperatures 7 degrees above normal for the time of year. The last few days temps have all been over 20 degrees with a high of 26 forecast tomorrow. Notable early season warmth for south east australia although the long term models indicate a cooler than normal spring, they are not always accurate. we shall see! http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/wet-and-windy-but-maybe-our-warmest-winter-yet-20130830-2svto.html After 2013's performance so far, who would bet for cool? 2013 has seen : [*]Australia’s hottest day on record [*]Australia’s hottest week on record [*]Australia’s hottest month on record [*]Australia’s hottest summer on record [*]Australia’s hottest September to June (10 months) on record
  22. Indeed , August has been very unsettled and we now have a cold front coming up from the south tomorrow which may lead to snow down to 300-500m in Vic. Gale force winds have been nearly incessant since Monday in Melbourne, with fast moving fronts but also good sunny spells in between . Just darn windy. The sun is gaining power again though, hopefully spring will get on it's way soon..
  23. From The Age, 31 July 2013 Figures in: July heat points to hot 2013 It's fair to say tales of abnormally warm weather in Australia sound like broken records - because for the most part they are. This year has already seen the hottest day, month and season on record, and after a warm July - about 1.5 degrees above the long-term norm - the hottest 11-month period on record. July itself will come in as the nation's third-warmest. As Melbourne's mercury reached 15 degrees on Wednesday, the city will post record July warmth in more than 150 years of counting. Sydney has enjoyed maximum temperatures about 3 degrees above normal, topping the previous record July average of 19 degrees by about a third of a degree. Wednesday's maximum came in at 18.4 degrees. It will require ''quite a dramatic change'' for 2013 not to be among the hottest years on record for Australia, said David Jones, head of climate analysis at the Bureau of Meteorology. Year to date, average mean temperatures are running 1.07 degrees above the 1961-90 baseline, placing the year just behind 2005, the hottest in more than a century of national data. The exceptional warmth began last September and every month has turned in notable weather. Sydney, for instance, had its warmest day, at 45.8 degrees back in January, a March with every day above 20 degrees, and the most July days of 20 degrees or warmer with Tuesday marking the 12th - two more than the previous record set in 1975. Melbourne, meanwhile, notched nine consecutive days above 30 degrees in March - eclipsing the previous string of seven set in February 1961 - and the longest stretch of days above 22 degrees in May. July 18 was the city's warmest July day, with temperatures reaching 23.3 degrees. Both cities recorded just three days below average for the month. ''Cool days are less common but are also not as cool as they once were,'' Dr Jones said. Snow season among worst Those mild conditions also stretched far inland and, unfortunately for the ski resorts, into alpine regions. Mount Hotham, for instance, had a record six consecutive days above zero during July. ''We're shaping for one of the worst snow seasons on record,'' Dr Jones said. ''It's just been so warm.'' One factor influencing conditions has been unusually warm sea-surface temperatures right around the country. To the end of June, ocean temperatures are wavering about half a degree above the long-term average, meaning onshore winds are warmer in virtually any direction they blow. In a century of records, Australia hasn't recorded a below-average temperature for 20 years, Dr Jones said. ''It does put quite a bias into our system,'' Dr Jones said. “It’s going to be very difficult for the climate over the land to offset that general influence,†with the result temperatures for the rest of the year should remain above average. The three-month outlook is also for above-average temperatures although perhaps less exceptional than recent months, he said. The start of August should be warmer than average for both cities. Under the current outlook, four of the first six days of the month should be above Melbourne's August average of 15, and five of the first six days should see the mercury climb above the 18-degree average for Sydney, the bureau forecasts. Dr Jones said it is probably wrong to focus on either the land or sea as the source for the above-average warmth. ''They're both warm in part because the planet is getting hotter,'' Dr Jones said. ''It's global warming being manifest locally.''
  24. Hello from Melbourne. Winter here still hasn't really bitten. We had a stormy start to June and a meandering low pressure to the East of us for a couple of days mid month which gave some decent falls of rain and a few grey days. Other than that June was reasonbly sunny, settled , quiet with temperatures regularly above average at around 16 or 17 degrees and a few spring-like days but with cool nights with at least 5 ground frosts - was scraping the car windscreen on a couple of mornings. There were 127 hours of sunshine during the month. Half of the 94 mm of rain recorded in June fell in 1 night, the remainder spread over around 10 days. The 11th -17th was the coolest and most unsettled part of the winter so far with a high of 12.1 degrees on the 17th and only 8 hours of sunshine in that 7 day period. Highest daytime max was 18.3 on the 30th. July started as June finished, mostly settled, pretty sunny and with above average daytime temps - with 19.2 degrees recorded on the 2nd, Monday and Tuesday last week had lows of 3.1 but clearing to beautifully clear days with around 9 hours of sun each day, topping out at around 15 degrees. The weather for the rest of July looks at the moment as though it is about to turn a little more seasonal in terms of rainfall. Low pressure looks like starting to dominate, and a cloudy weekend with some rain is currently in progress, having had 73 hours of sunshine to the 12th, the totals haven't been added to this weekend. 22mm of rain so far to mid month in July. However a northerly airflow this week will lead to some showers through the week but also high daytime temperatures for winter of 17-19 degrees until Friday when the models are starting to show a cold outbreak may arrive from the south. The daytime max has only failed to reach 15 degrees on 3 days in July so far,a stat which looks like being maintained until the 20th. Not bad at all for winter.
  25. Top of 13.7 degrees here in Melbourne today, with some heavy showers around. Forecast is for a cool week ahead, with tops of 14-15 degrees until the weekend as a deep low off Tasmania sweeps a cool and unstable flow across the south coast. The Australian Alps had their first proper snow of the season this week, the ski resorts are hoping for another bumper year like 2012.
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