Harsh Climate

I think we have learnt a lot from this cold spell, especially no matter how good the charts look nothing is set in stone. For me this cold spell has dismissed the notion you need cold soil/ground temperatures for snow to settle (need a good week or two of frosts.) Almost down to sea level in Liverpool the snow settled yesterday morning, even after all the mild dross we have had already most of this winter. Only did it melt once the temperature rose above freezing. I say from now on we need 1. The battleground snow with heavy long lasting precipitation with evaporative cooling coming in to play. 2. The beast from the east -10-15 uppers with showers feeding in from the east with no high ground eating them up. Obviously IMBY that. Anything else away from Northern Scotland will just be standard winter fare, with disappointments easy to come by!

Ah right, thought it might be going the other way and turn more to snow. Prob won't be until after midnight when the precipitation is almost gone lol

You reporting snow joggs? Heavy blob about to hit you

Yes and I heard comparisons of winter 1978/79 and that ''there would be many attacks on our blocking high which would be rebuffed.'' The first meaningful attack from the Atlantic this weekend, we end up with blow torch South Westerlies . Before that though patting themselves on the back and bigging up their wacky forecasting methods at 7 day+ GFS/ECM charts to suddenly disappear into the abyss lol

Barring a miracle this will probably go down as my second most disappointing cold spell of all time! Especially with the weeks of hype.

The problem is according to the data it doesn't turn favorable until after midnight when most of the precipitation has gone or died. Everything should be settling after 3am when it's bone dry.

I'm still going for 5-10cm for your location perhaps more, Once the showers align through the gaps of high ground to NW and W you will get hammered. Like you say the Yorkshire dales further north and northwest will get battered. Maybe 20cm+

You will get a good stream of snow showers at some point between Tue - Thu. At your elevation will be cold enough for 100% settling snow for the most part, as you know doesn't take long for heavy snow showers to quickly accumulate in those conditions. I'm going 5-10cm for you.

Oh how I miss the rain today radar, had many a good night following snow showers in from the E or NE (well maybe not many.) The north sea would be better than the great lakes with its higher temperatures, The only problem is we don't have -25 uppers going across it like Buffalo or Oswego get!

Gotta say I am not that confident of snow IMBY, maybe dusting - 1 cm as the front clears Tuesday evening/night. Had I still lived in Otley I would have been licking my lips at the chance of a surprise snowfall, nothing more satisfying than that! Otley I am going 3-5cm Tuesday - Thursday with 20% of up to 10cm. Otley always had a special nack of showers feeding in at night from gaps in the high ground to the west and northwest.

Fax chart showing a Pembrokeshire dangler tonight

Excellent post Kasim, looks about right. I think through Tuesday evening - Wednesday morning as the lower 850s come back down the snow level should drop and some low lying areas could get some decent accumulations, where showers allign. Going to do a post later on my thoughts/predictions.

Yes I'm liking the look of that cold front moving south late Tuesday night. Be interesting to see if we get a line of precipitation moving south that is actually attached to that system already out into the North Sea? If it is to play out like that I still wouldn't expect more than a couple of cm as I would expect the band moving south to be quite narrow and reasonably fast moving. But right now I would be delighted with that as would a few folk in the North Midlands. The real depths will come from snow showers aligning and being very persistent.

I think there will certainly be a few surprises from the NW Tuesday/ Wednesday morning. Looks a fairly active system even has a triple point Even by Wednesday the front is still apparent and has reached Central Southern England, albeit a decaying feature. Look at the 500s, blue colors should give rise to some decent shower activity and quite gusty little winds developing I think a few favored places could be in line for 10-15cm, especially where showers/streamers align. Mostly talking about England's chances, Scotland more like 20-30cm in favored places. RED BOX - 5 to 15cm plus accumulations perhaps reserved for elevation 100m+ (About as far east as western suburbs of Leeds.) Further east a sporadic dusting to 2/3cm - BLUE BOX Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

Good post, I think some in the NW and Northern England could do very well Tuesday into Wednesday.

UKMO has much more extensive precipitation, ECM probably underplaying the extent of it. On face value if the models were to be right now, this looks very much like a West Leeds event with places like Skipton, Otley, Halifax, perhaps Bradford having quite a nice surprise with a sharp cut off of precipitation once ya reach Headingly/ Leeds City centre.. Ovcoarse too early to name exact area to receive the snow tuesday, but a bit of luck and we could have a large part of West, South and North Yorkshire receiving the snow than just more western areas.

ECM doesn't look bad for snow Tuesday as well Decent wind direction. Bit of strength to it and colder 500s (towards east) should help it spread east

Put it this way I'd rather still be living in Otley at 330ft asl near the north Yorkshire border than here in Kippax 200ft asl, for snow chances next week. Gfs precipitation maps in next week's set up are next to useless. Ukmo, Aprege, net weather model and nowcasting all the way!

UKMO keeps us in the game 🌨

Really hoping the 12z can chuck something significant in from the NW Tue-Fri!

🌨 We could dream. Members in Scotland might be doing that soon though.

Spot on that mate We want inches of snow though not mere cm's.... . Check out marks post

Yeah things could pop up but 24/36 hours ago we was looking at a nice slider from the NW with snowfall for our region or the possibility of a big dumping from the SW Wednesday, these options have disappeared.

Look at the precipitation charts, essentially dry for our region. Yeah it's not far from being good but a far cry from what Ukmo was showing yesterday.

Not liking overnight output at all, as The Pit says looking really dry.. Still time for change but we need improvements within the next 48 hours.