Harsh Climate
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Doesn't look dry in most of the likely cold set-ups mid month though Joggs.
As an early guess I think we are looking at quite a messy picture, rain, sleet and snow with not many places escaping. With such low 500 temperatures, I think snow will come down to very low levels in a showery set-up if we get the dark blues and purples in with air even at just -3/-4 850s...
Trying to keep it as vague as that cos any more detail is just pure guess work lol, I think we are soon to enter a time where snow chances will pop up everywhere with shortwaves and spoilers littered all over the place, So can work both ways, a likely upcoming short notice snow event could just as easily be scuppered, rather than the more favourable alternative..
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I wouldn't Micro Analyze every run. The ECM is decent. Colder air eventually filtering south, with the stubborn Azores high heading right back down towards Africa/ Southern Med.. Plus a lot of cold air to potentially tap into across Scandinavia/ Russia.
This is a common theme across a fair few models and assembles as we head into mid month.
Some absolute crackers in the GFS assembles, there's nothing to say one of those runs won't come to fruition!
We are heading in the right direction, people need to look at the big picture rather than hoping for the perfect run from a needle in a haystack (1 run that will likely be much different 12 hours later...)
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Check out the GFS 12z assembles, lots of great runs.
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Models are all over the place at the moment with pretty much everything on the table in what is possible for Februrary.
I think the models will latch on to something interesting within a few days and we will build on that for the next cold/wintry spell.
Models already showing interest at the 144h range, showing an incoming northerly of some sort. Let's see if this alone can upgrade over the next day or so.
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We are going to see a very good set of assembles GFS 6z
Heres Just a few at 211h:
Like I said yesterday,chase well and truly underway, Let's see if we can start reeling in some crackers in the <180t range over then next day or so!
Great Average aswel
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IMO you have nailed the date of the next chase
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Yeah I think some cold/blocking early/mid January is quite likely now, but unfortunately that does not = snow.
Look at this chart for example:
Mostly dry inland untill this feature heads down from the north. You can guarantee if a chart like this came to fruition the mild core in the feature moving south would be much more mild and expansive than shown here
. What can go wrong usually does for Uk when snow chances are concerned.
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Another thing to mention for me IMBY, no easterly component in a northerly no interest... See how in the last cold spell snow showers aligned perfectly with the wind, pretty much for days on end
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Only 30 users present in mod thread. The start of that last MAMMOTH chase there was about 70 in at the 240H mark of POTENTIAL
I think there will be a fair few people still fed up from the last calamity and refusing to vest interest in charts this far out, perhaps rightfully so lol!
The last chase pretty much caught everyone out, for me this one I am just going to enjoy the ride but not take anything as certain until close to T0 that way no disappointments!
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So just like that, the chase for cold/snow has officially started again!
. A couple days earlier than first thought (referring to my post yesterday.)
Sometimes all that is needed is a quick scan at the data over a day or so to quickly realise what's coming.
Cold/ blocking is now 7-10 days away enjoy the chase peeps!
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I'm a slight bit more optimistic this morning, Gfs throwing out a few nice runs now in the assembles.
This for WestYorkshire doesn't look at all bad:
Mid-Long range heading in right direction.
AO/NAO heading in right direction:
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With another Canadian warming underway (Which should tip things more in our favour and heading into the important part of an El Nino winter, I see February going only one way and that is Cold/Blocked and Potentially snowy!
Most indications are showing this to be mid February onwards but I'm hopeful we can sneak something in early February and get it going then. I would say no earlier than the 5th.
I believe we will be jumping back on the chase next week fully, hopefully, earlier next week than later!
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21 minutes ago, Aiden2012 said:
In Driffield atm might’ve been a bad idea full on snow everywhere haha
In Driffield atm might’ve been a bad idea full on snow everywhere haha
You called it pretty well, got a good hit.
Probably be best heading home if ya can't be assed driving anywhere. I think maybe one more decent hit around Whitby soon then it will start to ease off.
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9 hours ago, Aiden2012 said:
Do we reckon I’ll have to take a trip out of pocklington? The showers seem pretty potent in the sea and heading south westerly ish I think.
Looks like ya might get a dusting, If I was you I'd head out to whitby or Scarbrough
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Good to see the guys on east coast get a bit of snow 🌨
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I can't wait for this cold spell to come to an end! Have a week off the weather then come back hopefully for a fresh new chase. A clean slate!
This cold spell along with Scotland's snow can be sent to the lowest depths of hell, worst cold spell of all time.
The worst thing now is I still can't stop looking at radar hoping for something to happen even though there is zero chance
Insanity of a UK snow chaser!
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I can't wait for this cold spell to come to an end! Have a week off the weather then come back hopefully for a fresh new chase. A clean slate!
This cold spell along with Scotland's snow can be sent to the lowest depths of hell, worst cold spell of all time.
The worst thing now is I still can't stop looking at radar hoping for something to happen even though there is zero chance
Insanity of a UK snow chaser!
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53 minutes ago, mike57 said:
Interesting that the MetO surface pressure chart forecast for midday tomorrow shows a convergance line down the east coast. That could give some localised significant snow.
Yes could be a good day for you
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Looks like shower activity popping up later in the day perhaps pushing in a little inland late on.
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I think we have learnt a lot from this cold spell, especially no matter how good the charts look nothing is set in stone.
For me this cold spell has dismissed the notion you need cold soil/ground temperatures for snow to settle (need a good week or two of frosts.) Almost down to sea level in Liverpool the snow settled yesterday morning, even after all the mild dross we have had already most of this winter. Only did it melt once the temperature rose above freezing.
I say from now on we need
1. The battleground snow with heavy long lasting precipitation with evaporative cooling coming in to play.
2. The beast from the east -10-15 uppers with showers feeding in from the east with no high ground eating them up.
Anything else away from Northern Scotland will just be standard winter fare, with disappointments easy to come by!
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
This here is a carbon copy of what brought 6-10" snow to northern England a couple of years ago, We had 3 of these type of snowfalls that winter!