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Harsh Climate

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Everything posted by Harsh Climate

  1. Yeah I reckon so. I think at very worst we at least get a snowy breakdown. You seen UKMO, I'm a tad dissapointed that it shows more of a SEE to SE feed tuesday, this could cut the duration of heavy frequent snow showers to yorkshire/linconshire.. And you guessed it clobbering north east england/south east scotland instead... Hope this isn't a trend. The E to NEE showed yesterday and this morning looked perfect. Yes GFS precip charts are perfect but they haven't taken into account watch such a wind shift towards the SE would do.
  2. I think the models are underestimating strength of block and cold pool to east, going with default and having atlantic steamroll through.. I think it will be a slower affair and take until the weekend for it to remain dominance, if it actually does..
  3. Yeah looks good, I'm very happy with it's 168 hour chart. There's not a chance that would lead to what it shows at 192 hours though with the atlantic steamrolling through like a dose of salts! 😄
  4. I'd go completely on charts and what people on here say. Ignore the bbc. Yes it's nice when they showing snow graphics over ya house, but they are so bad and inaccurate it's laughable. Charts show lot's of showers sunday! 🙂
  5. GFS is a huge upgrade for shower activity sunday. Shows most of yorkshire getting pummeled by snow showers! ❄️ Also interesting, I'm surprised no ones mentioned it yet, first signs of orographic lift showing on charts. Look at this bad boy: Look at how the precipitation towards the east coast is a lot lighter, but eastern side of pennines heavy precipitation. clouds building as cold air picks up moisture from the rather mild north sea. Sent upwards as it hit's the pennines, quickly cools and falls back down as snow to us lucky lot on the eastern side. 😁 An actual Adiabat
  6. Am I right in thinking otley is near the nose lol. Often in these situations I'm looking towards york for our next shower.
  7. Yeah ya probably right. The map was drawn up quite quick tbh due to a moaning girlfriend. Il bare that in mind next time, nothing beats local knowledge 🙂
  8. Don't take it at face value, those automated graphics and forecasts change by the day and are often completely wrong, I don't pay any attention to them at all.
  9. Probably should have had far north east scotland in orange zone but getting used to this new technology 🤣
  10. My current thought's on how much snow could fall over the next few days in scotland. Don't shoot me if ya think I've gone too express lol but I really think these totals are possible. From my weather page: RED WARNING: 4/2/21 18z - 6/2/21 12z. (Red Area) Central/Eastern Scotland - *Imminent danger to life *Blocked Roads *Cuts to electricity/essential services 10-20cm all levels 20-40cm 200m+ 50-75cm 300m+ Could be some historical amounts of snow, only travel if absolutely essential, have winter supply's stocked in car if doing so. (
  11. Again from my weather page - Yes I've gone big haha RED WARNING: 4/2/21 18z - 6/2/21 12z. (Red Area) Central/Eastern Scotland - *Imminent danger to life *Blocked Roads *Cuts to electricity/essential services 10-20cm all levels 20-40cm 200m+ 50-75cm 300m+ Could be some historical amounts of snow, only travel if absolutely essential, have winter supply's stocked in car if doing so. (Orange area) Other parts of Central/Eastern scotland. Southern scotland. 2-5cm Coastal fringes 5-15cm All levels 10-18cm 200m+ 15
  12. Here's my current take on snow totals *Whole eastern side of England 2 Areas of interest: *Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards! *Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to pinpoint. These warnings will be updated as events unfold and will most likely be u
  13. First predictions for this upcoming cold spell taken from my weather page. Early weather watch 06/2/2021 21z - 10/2/2021. *Whole eastern side of England 2 Areas of interest: *Yellow Zone- Area of snow moving south saturday night being replaced by snow showers, more frequent monday onwards! *Orange Zone- A spell of snow pushing into south eastern areas sunday will expand northwards throughout the day eventually affecting as far north as midlands/linconshire, parts of south yorkshire. After that possibility of snow showers/ troughs or disturbances but too early to
  14. Look at that area just south of hull though, If that chart was to come to fruition there's no way south yorkshire wouldn't get loads of shower activity two.
  15. In my opinion the area of snow to the south east stretching into south yorkshire and lincolnshire sunday, should edge further north late in the day but becoming more showery, by monday I think this will be the real catalyst for intense snow showers/streamers over north/west (perhaps all yorkshire.) By then it will be no longer an organised band of snow, but a defined area of shower activity.
  16. Your gunna get all the snow sunday while us further north probably miss out 🤧. On the flip side it does look like north/west yorkshire is best place for snow showers next week. But a lot of water to go under the bridge yet..
  17. I've noticed that we have some members on here from lincoln and york who haven't seen much snow yet this winter. Around york looks best placed at the moment (low lying area) to get pummeled from the snow showers monday - wednesday. And lincoln looks best placed for the stuff coming up from the south east sunday. You guys especially want no changes in model output from now until the weekend lol.
  18. Latest GFS is an absolute bulls eye for snow shower activity and streamers after the weekend, For north/west yorkshire. All we need now is no big changes, wind alignment absolutely perfect.
  19. Yeah high ground in the south west could see a lot of snow when the atlantic tries to push the colder air out the way.
  20. Great start to the morning *gfs op has better breakdown, slower and snowier, better angle of attack from the atlantic. *ukmo is very good two. 144h on latest 00z run is better than yesterdays ECM at same day. Let's hope the next ECM coming out soon can give us 3/3 this morning 😁 GFS UKMO
  21. Yeah when snow showers start rattling in from the east really will be heaven, tracking the showers on radar, looking out window for big cumulus/ towers and then if your lucky streamers set up shop over ya house.. :: )) Yeah!!
  22. Oooo latest fax chart has a convergence zone north yorkshire on monday, could that come a little bit further south west please on the next update!
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