Harsh Climate

I can see why the met office warning for today/ tonight is in the area where it is and parts of scotland/north east england are in the orange area. A quick glance at the dew points and uppers tomorrow really does not look conductive for snow fall south of yorkshire, south yorkshire may just be alright later tomorrow morning. I think similar areas to last friday should probably be best primed for snowfall, although a bit more marginal this time around. In our region I would expect biggest low lying totals in north/west yorkshire and sweet spot being somehwere in the yorkshire dales, probably geenhow hill. Obviously north york moors could get a pasting. Can't see more than 1 or 2 cm low ground south of yorkshire.

Temperature dropped 0.5c here (otley) in last hour, now 1.5c.

Yeah I will certainly be keeping an eye out on what those areas report later on. Be also interested seeing how quickly it turns in southern scotland and north east england.

In terms of the future I think the met office amber warning pretty much sums up where I think the bulk of the lowland snow will fall over the next 10 days. When I say lowland I mean below about 130m. You look at a lot of the models and the protracted battleground event's I think we are just a tad bit too much on the southern flank of the cold air to the north/ northeast for the most part. I think events will be similar to last fridays albeit a bit more marginal. Above 1000ft ignore what I say everything is looking very rosy indeed, above 600ft still everything looks pretty good but once you get below say 400ft looks very marginal indeed, for the most part. Yes low lying areas tomorrow should see upto 5cm, maybe a bit more if the precipitation is heavy enough and sticks around long enough but we could suffer the fate over the next week or so what I suffered last friday, heavy snow falling all day adding up to no more than measly 2cm covering of wet snow/slush. Still bags of time for change, I just say keep an eye out on the track of these attacking lows/shortwaves in the future, we want them to be just a bit further south.. Here's an example, with any similar repeat to today/tomorrows event we want the very top of the attacking lows centre to be just south of yorkshire, I've always found that to be a very good marker. See here it's just a tad further north, which is why scotland/northernmost parts of england have that nice met office amber warning.

Can't see any snow today at all, maybe wake up to a nice supprise tomorrow morning with the rain at very least turning to snow.

Yeah, propper snow like what you would see in the states. Actually was 1/12 Guess these are the uppers you need for quality snow like that.

Can't remember date but just remember a big streamer that came in from east coast, straight through doncaster, scunthorpe, then sheffield dumping snow all day long.

Shouldn't these forecasted precipitation maps be taken with a pinch of salt after last fridays debacle? Every single one was way off the mark, the snow band over north and west yorkshire never really left that area even though forecast to head south west through NW england into SW england and lasted hours longer than forecast! Some places like harrogate and north west suburbs leeds ended up with 6"+ albeit above 500ft.

Your still paying back what you owe for that 17" snowfall you got sometime in december 2010, whilst 95% of the region missed out! That was one of my most painful days in weather watching!

Ukmo 12z is a corker! A repeat snow event saturday/ sunday but less marginal. Then what's that on the horizon monday?

Yeah I probably was a bit like a spoilt kid at first I was happy with the 1" wet snow that settled after a morning of rain. But then seeing hours and hours of wet snow not settling anymore that did make me feel a bit sad.. lol.. Your right though should never take it for granted cos some areas will miss out alltogether. I hope those areas in east yorkshire/lincolnshire finally see some snow by end of thursday, ridiclous how long they have had to wait

Yeah I'd be delighted with 5cm, as long as it's not like the slush I got last week, while a few miles away (200ft higher) got 5/6" propper snow

I hope so!

I'd wager that two so no deal lol. But I don't think that 5cm will be as widespread as that chart shows. Yeah someone low down could get heavy precipitation at the optimal time later thursday and get a good couple inches but I wouldn't fancy having to pick that location out of thin air..

I bet anyone my right testacle that that doesn't come off for ground below 250m

I think it's safe to say you can take most predicted snow charts with a pinch of salt even just a few hours before the event, after friday's performance! Most precip charts had the snow band pushing into south yorkshire, lancashire and north midlands early afternoon, in reality it never left north and west yorkshire. Also it lasted hours longer than forecast and only very slowly fizzled away. Precip charts including the met offices where laughably way off the mark Shows nowcasting will always be king.

I can see somewhere Like greenhow hill getting a good 8/9" before thursdays out. Top of otley chevin should have decent covering two.

I'm with you on this one, I even think the likes of cookridge/yeadon that hit the jackpot last week will probably just be the wrong side of marginal for the most part. So in my opinion no big snow event below 250m but I think many of us could see a little back edge snow before it clears away/ fizzles away. Do hope I'm wrong though!

Even though it's against what I think will happen (check my post above.) Had a quick look and factors that COULD help snow chances to low levels are: 1.Low dew points, check out dew points 12noon on wednesday 2.A hard frost is expected in places tonight, if we can get lower than say the -2c forecast for otley, hit -4... that could have a positive impact. Also as cloud moves in ahead of the front that could maybe lock in the cold overnight temparatures for longer? 3.Evaporative cooling, keep an eye out for heavy bursts of precipitation and little wind.

I think tomorrow's/ thursday's event will be similar to last friday's except the snow line will be at least 100/200ft higher this time round.. So that would be snowline for the most part at around 4/500ft with maybe a light slushy covering, 700ft+ for a covering and 900ft+ for the big snow. That's just my estimates for the most part but I think later thursday the snow line will drop before before it all clears away giving perhaps lower levels a light covering..

Would love that to be correct lee but just can't see it, thinking cold rain and temps of 2/3c most parts. 250m+ could see a good event though, hope I'm wrong.

Yeah I highly valued their opinions too great posters. Kind of goes against the entire point of discussion if your not allowed a differing opinion

Yeah no problem mate. Yes and for those that have seen it all you notice these different style of posters, each year a new member pops up and takes on that roll . Whether its to bang on the coldies 'perfect winter setups coming' drum, be argumentative or come on with a load of highly technical wording and phrases to merely look good, but when you disect what is said very little sense is made nor is any opinion given .. lol Thats why if I'm scanning through the model outlook section without time for a propper look at the charts I keep an eye out for the posts of old wise heads like Steve murr, northwest snow and TEITS to name a few. Sorry about the old

I think if your going to be neutral and give a balanced view it's clear to see that we are going to be in somewhat middle ground, between colder air to the North east and milder air from the west/ southwest. Unfortunately it looks like we are going to be just on the wrong side, with Denmark looking prime position. I see a lot of hopecasting going on, there's people who have predicted these 'holy grail' winter setups are just around the corner since late December and just keep cherry picking the best charts/ data to back themselves up ignoring all the negative signs. You just know there going to keep bashing that battered drum until there's nothing left of the bloody thing, we're in May or by the law of averages they get lucky a month later . You can see who the experienced long serving members on here are because it only takes a fleeting look at gfs, ecm and ukmo to know when things aren't that great for us coldies because we've seen that many charts/setups and letdowns you pretty much can give a good analysis from just the quick feeling you get from those 3 models. Its clear to see that from the big 3 models iv mentioned any blocking looks transient for the next 10 days or so, we will have cold and mild shots with maybe some transient snowfall probably on high ground. There is no suggestion of a meaningful Greenland high thats going to set up a corner shop for any meaningful length of time and the Atlantic just has a little too much bite at this time. After that though my opinion is we should start seeing more blocking into February as the SSW comes into play and the Atlantic starts losing its bite. But that is still no guarantee any deep cold will be channelled our way. Patience is required here im afraid.

Looks like the snow band is starting to weaken for most parts of north west leeds now. Was a nice event but could never get fully excited knowing that most of the snow is melting and just up the road (200 ft) higher is getting a pasting. A rather wet 1" here, better than nothing.