mcweather

With yet another putting off of the proposed Atlantic insurgence towards the end of the week. One can't help but get just the inkling of a feeling that the bigger picture mentioned by the likes of Chiono and Tamara may just be starting to be heard as a stronger signal above the chaos of Atmospheric white noise in the current modelling. I would not be at all surprised if we start seeing some 1947esque synoptics popping up in FI over the coming week of model watching. To me this week has all the hallmarks of a minor skirmish prior to a much bigger event.

Crikey Mushy if you carry on like this we'll have to call you Murrshymanrob. I think you may well be right though. So many people have got caught up in trying to tell us who will get snow from the synoptics shown on various runs in the past few days and presumably because this is the first chance of real winter weather since March 2013 they have taken their eyes off the bigger picture. That picture is one that suggests that the upcoming week could merely be round one, a preliminary skirmish in what may turn out to be a much longer affair. Suggestions from both Chiono and Tamarra that the overall atmospheric patterns both strat and trop related are falling into place for a far more significant cold spell down the line. Todays forecast for the week ahead posted up on the bbc about 20 minutes ago was very indicative of the uncertainty at the MET OFFICE about a return of the Atlantic beyond next weekend.

Thanks Gael will take a look.

Quite so Ian. It will be interesting to see how things pan out after the current colder spell of weather, I really thinks at the moment anything beyond seven days has to be taken with a large pinch of salt rather like you suggested the other night regarding a quick Atlantic return.

Hi Ian It was in a tweet from a fellow professional meteorologist! Still all water under the bridge now.

Ah yes the The ECM 32 dayer the same model that had an extreme high pressure anomaly over Greenland for January back in late December. The words Chocolate and fireguard spring to mind. With the polar vortex being bounced and stretched around in all sorts of different ways, I think that this winter is one where anything beyond about 7 days really is fantasy forecasting.

Latest from Fergie in Model thread; A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)..

I always find in these situations with a wide spread its best to take the middle ground solution, so that'll be the south coast of England then. Crikey that's where I live. LOL

Here's the latest tweet from someone who obviously spends a great deal of time looking at the models, quite of lot of which we don't have access too. Ian Fergusson @fergieweather · 2h 2 hours ago W COUNTRY CONT'D...with temperatures generally below average & occasional N'ly bias to winds. Frost/ice/some snow possible into 6-15d period

Most recent tweet from Fergie Ian Fergusson @fergieweather · 2h 2 hours ago W COUNTRY CONT'D...with temperatures generally below average & occasional N'ly bias to winds. Frost/ice/some snow possible into 6-15d period

Hi Terrier. I can see where you're coming from with this. The met office are rightly cautious because they have a national reputation to protect and one that will be mercilessly torn apart by a meteorologically illiterate media. However this caution also plays against them because in the years that I have been following the weather on the internet. There hasn't been a single cold or snowy outbreak that they have eventually mentioned in their medium term outlook that wasn't blindingly obvious to experienced model watchers on this forum and TWO well before it ever made it into print on the Met office website. By the way this is not a dig at the met office for whom I have the utmost respect.

Actually terrier the tweet says, late January not the end of January and seeing as the 20th January could be classed as late January it actually fits in quite well with what the ecm and gfs are trending towards.

I Is that a snow event for southern England on the 12z GFS P that I can see?

The GFS model has certainly shown up some interesting wintry possibilities ( and that is all they are at the moment, possibilities) in FI over the last few days. It will be interesting if a, It keeps displaying these possibilties b, Brings them inside the 240 range c, if it manages to get to point b then will the ECM start displaying such possibilties? Getting a half decent cold spell to the UK is always like pulling teeth. So I think its a case of coldies having to keep everything crossed.

Indeed Nick hopefully signs of a significant change but simply eye candy and nothing more at present. After many years of GFS let downs and Those ECM''s I'm sticking with my new Mantra this winter. ''You can scream and shout your happiness about ECM AND GFS but it simply will not happen until the UKMET say yes.''

If we have a pattern change to negative AO say last week of Jan and lasting through Feb will people be quite so ready to write off the OPI theory. I would be more inclined to let the rest of the winter pan first before making any decisions as to it's viability or lack thereof. I can just imagine if the OPI had been presented back in autumn 1946 and a first half of january 47 being mild after a brief bit of cold around Christmas 1946 and people queuing up to call it a busted flush. they wouldn't have looked so clever come March 47. Just musing to myself...................................................

Happy new year to members of the forum coldies /mildies and inbetweenies. For now fast moving interchangeable mildish and coldish periods are showing on the models Hopefully the rest of winter will have something to keep everyone happy, and I do think that will be the case. The first half January is very often a stormy period anyway so best just for those seeking widespread cold and snow away from northern hills to sit back and let it blow itself out. There are some back ground signals that hint a somehwat more wintry pattern later in the month and feb could bring anything. That's the wonder of this subject that we are all so wrapped up in. So just relax and enjoy it we can't change it no matter what the models show.

Indeed Chiono. very much as the latter stages of todays 12z GFS para would suggest. let us hope this trend is our friend.

Great to see some genuine excitement in this thread based on more than our own interpretations of each model run. Ian F's interventions have certainly upped the ante somewhat. This should come as no surprise reall . Retron over on TWO pointed out that last nights nights ECM control run would have brought snow to nearly all parts of the UK by day ten. Also one of the BBC forecasts looking at next week and beyond raised the possibility of snow and strong winds to low levels in the far south. So eyebrows must really being raised over some of the possible outcomes at the met Office. The models are becoming genuinely interesting at last.

This is a brilliant guide Steve. Having worked outside most of my working life since 1976 I thin k I have been out and about in most of the levels on the guide. Proud to say I have been witness to level 13 snow on the night of 18th/19th February 1978 down here in Dorset in the great Southwest Blizzard. Another incident I remember vividly which would probably count as level 12 and that was the start of a Blizzard on sunday 13th December 1981 when I watched a vast curtain of white advance across Poole harbour from the Purbeck hills looking not unlike some of those amazing shots from the recent Buffalo lake effect storms, once it reached me at Broadstone it pelted down with 50p flakes that covered the ground and everything else in less than a minute.

Hi Knocker, I'm not sure you took my post in the vein that it was intended, because nowhere in it did I say that I was wishing for another 62/3 or 47. Iwas just pointing out that those two exceptional winters did not start early in the season. I know sometimes one can react to a post without reading it properly, Still hope springs eternal eh.

I know some posters find it difficult when nothing particularly easterly or snowy is showing in the models, and some of you are probably heartily sick of old hands like myself telling you that patience is the watchword but it is worth remembering that the winter of 63 didn't really get properly cold until 23rd Dec which at the moment is well beyond the reliable timeframe. Also the snowiest winter of the last 200 years namely 1947 didn't get cold and snowy until the 21st January. So just hang in there.

A superb and detailed post Tamara, not to say a great riposte to those who seem to throw their toys out of the pram because the charts don't show what they want to see..................... yet. Yourself and other very experienced and knowledgable posters ( as opposed to chart commentators) have always pointed out that this winter was likely to be a slow burner which was unlikely to see a pattern change until mid to late December at the earliest. So why any one would want to comment that it hasn't happened yet or they cannot see it in the model output is as you say somewhat bewildering. 45 years of weather watching in the British winter has taught me one thing and that is that the watch word in the search for cold and snow from Northern Blocking is patience. Unfortunately we now live in a society governed by instant gratification where most things can be accessed at the touch of a button. The weather, thank heavens is not one of those things that we can have at the touch of a button which is what makes it so interesting.

Looks like the 12Z GFS is trying to bring us a polar low next weekend;

Interesting ECM as you say Tamara and certainly what we need to see happening as a precursor to where us coldies want to be come months end.