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Polar Low

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    Newark, Nottinghamshire +19M

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  1. Light powdery snow falling here this morning, light showers feeding in. Little warm up for tomorrow. Feel the E Mids especially, but perhaps more widely, that we're in good shape.
  2. Yes, as forecast. 🙂 Showers will continue to pep up, perhaps with a brief lull this afternoon.
  3. Some of the posts in here of people panicking/berating are absolutely bloody hilarious. Thanks for cheering up my morning.
  4. He's talking about daily maxima. Not sure if you realised (sorry if you did!)
  5. Offfftttt! Some of these model outputs for Saturday night/Sunday are putting a lot of people on a knife edge. Local bias for me; the NE'ern extent in terms of precipitation from the low looks pretty much slap bang on my location, arguably falling 20-30 miles short. However the latest ICON's shift N would put the E Mids into the game. If it's the former; then selfishly speaking, this would a disaster. If the low doesn't make it, but gets close, Sunday could be bone dry as convective showers will be sparce or potentially non-existant for locations close to, but not under, the low.
  6. Again, I refer back to my previous post. Midnight Thursday any effort to identify what is going to happen at +144 is purely about following trends and factoring in model bias. +144 is completely FI. Come Wednesday, it could be worse, or better (depending on which side of the coin you look at) but ultimately the only thing that's certain is that corrections will happen right up to t48/t72.
  7. I disagree with your view on the models. Irrespective, noting your last comment - bring it on! Could amount to some staggering snowfall totals. There is now way the Atlantic blows through this kind of setup without significant resistance, a stall would be inevitable - the question is; where. Classic battleground scenario if FI verifies. Many changes will verify between now and then, though. Fantastic weekend coming up regardless, reinforced until Wednesday at the earliest. Anything beyond that is FI.
  8. 😆😆😆 As for some of the snow depth predictions in this thread I think - quite understandably - that some people are going into hype overdrive. There's absolutely no evidence suggesting totals of a foot of snow widely in the SE/EA. I doubt we'll even see that locally. I imagine the average falls in favoured areas will be closer to GFS - up to 15cm.
  9. As explained, Chrome has detected that you use the same password on NW as you do on another website which has been associated with a potential data breach. It's always good practice to use unique passwords on your accounts anyway; you can use something like LastPass to store them all to make your life easy! 🙂
  10. My triumphant (in my own head at least) return to these forums after a 4 year hiatus. I hope both new and old regulars are keeping well in these exceptional times. Quick thanks to @Paul for his patience in restoring access to my 16 year old account! All my own fault, I may add. Look forward to enjoying this thread Sunday onwards. Seems we are on the brink of something quite memorable. Also, whilst fun to discuss; isn't it refreshing that 72hrs before the commencement of a cold snap we are now more concerned about the longevity of the deep cold; rather than the usual concerns of
  11. Sunday frankly could be a memorable event for all of the Midlands. I tentatively suggest that at least those on the Lincs Border in addition to the North, East and Southeast Mids can start to bank on that one, with a margin for shifts north/south. Forecast right now though puts the entire Midlands county into play.
  12. Unless they were certain that the area would not be affected, then they were right to keep the warning. Keyword being 'warning', folks. If there was any risk of significant disruption to that area this morning, then they couldn't possibly (nor should they) have removed the warning. It does absolutely no harm, they aren't there to get your hopes up, they are in place to protect people. It's better to have the warning there than not, nobody ever got injured, delayed, or killed because it didn't snow.
  13. So it's another classic Met Office cockup in terms relative only to your back garden?
  14. MetOffice have played an absolute blinder. It's a warning area to be prepared, and many in that area have received exactly what the MetO predicted. Well played to them.
  15. I mentioned to somebody in the Midlands thread who said something similar; Those symbols you see are based on computer interpretations of charts, not human input. Take subtle variations like that with a pinch of salt. It's very much a case of watching the radar and looking out your living room window.
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