frosty ground

The ridge failing has nothing to do with tonight low, in fact there where a few runs with the low and a ridge still followed.

I think its more down to people not understanding them, they probably should be banned from this thread and left to the technical thread.

You said increased sea temperatures are creating shortwave..... (they are not) Short wave are created by two different air masses meeting usually one advocating over the other. Short waves are not stopping blocks from forming, they are not redirecting the Jet. The world is getting warmer that much is true, is this affecting our winters? who knows, but the UK has had spells of warmer and colder winters in the past and even with the background warming the same will still be true.

Why do people that that short wave, feature low down in the atmosphere are capable of derailing upper atmosphere blocks? The shortwave spoilers (as Nick in the MO thread calls them) are symptoms not the cause.

Shortwave have always existed and are created by two different air masses advances either CAA over Warm are or WAA over Cold

That's what was forecast and the temps you talk about didn't really have time to embed in, its not like we where under those conditions for a day or two was it? had the flow been as originally forecast (the temps would have got colder and colder but things change, that's life.

So the Models got it wrong originally hence why forecasts based upon MJO was also wrong.

But expected when you get a mild sector........ Do people really believe that there where no marginal events or non events in the 60/70/80's

I thought all those MJO forecasts where generated from the models. To me it looks like people are using MJO forecast generated by models as a signal for future development except they call it teleconnetics. When the models looked good for next week and beyond the MJO got trotted out that supported the current output, which to me is basically reading the models but in a different way, then when the models changed we where told that maybe the models are not reading the MJO signal right, except the MJO signal was derived from previous output therefore the statement should have been the Models misread the MJO originally.

Why do you post utter whiney pap on FB as well?

This is my 3rd consecutive 17th January with snow cover.

If you are North of Kendal you should be fine. south of Kendall and its not going to happen.

All those letdowns..... like when you posted this It's just let down after let down for you

I do not see anything surprising or depressing there......

So after today's thaw and tonight spell of slightly windy weather thursday and Friday is looking to produce some more falling snow, may even settle over night. The heavy thundery snow showers look to be behind us now thou which is a shame.

3-4 inches last night even after a slight thaw, not a bad effort, once I dropped down into oldham it looks like an inch or so. So after all the predictions once again the Met Office comes out on top, warning where spot. @Joe Bloggs your predictions where fine with the output at the time, but as is the norm with these situation slight adjustments make a difference.

Heavy snow being whipped up by strong gusts of wind... looks impressive

Radar is exploding you just need a bit of luck to hit some of thsoe reds

Accirding to the GFS right?

Asumme the worst and be surprised . Its going to be a close call either way

Heavy anow for the last 30 mins.... al.ost streamer like irish sea is still creating showers and the gain strength over land.

Irish sea is coming to life..... wnw showers.... looks like plenty for greater Manchester area

More showers forming in the Irish sea further north for the m62 route

Thunder here anf heavy snow blowing around