Just Before Dawn

Three hours worth of snow here at my Dad’s near Spilsby and it does look like it starting to accumulate even on minor roads. Nice!

It’s very slight snizzle here at the moment, but it remains very cold, which is a hopeful sign.

The models this morning are interesting to say the least - it might be that we should be more concerned about the very deep depression crossing just to the north of us (at the moment!) as our area is on the immediate southern flank and we end up with severe gales overnight Wednesday into Thursday. It’ll probably adjust N or S over the next few days, but the 06z GFS this morning had us on the wrong end sustained wind speeds well over 50mph with gusts over 80. One to watch. If it adjusts south and we end up on the N flank, the wind risk is probably lower but it might mean a greater snow risk. Lively week potentially coming up.

Models giving the possibility of a snow event on the 27th that could impact us, although it's looking rather marginal at present - worth keeping an eye on the model thread over the next couple of days.

Yep, raining here too now.

Still going here but very, very light now.

Excellent. Pleased for you. I work in Lincoln, so at least my drive to work tomorrow should be picturesque.

Well, don't write it off just yet, as LO predicted, it's starting to beef up a little now. Whereabouts do you live, SO?

Thanks LO - it's fine though, last week we had a wonderful day of really beefy snow showers right on the coast which was the first decent lying snow we'd had since 2013, so if this one fizzles out over me, I can live with that if more snow-starved bits of our patch do better. Share and share alike, I say!

It's started snowing now but it's extremely light - the marginality is demonstrated by the fact that it's really coming down in Ludford, about 10 miles west of me but here we have intermittent light stuff.

Yeah, looks like we will be right on the northern edge of it - still dry here but it’s snowing down the road at Ludford.

Fingers crossed the cloud cover dissipates for you. It was cloudy here until about 9pm, so hopefully it happens for you overnight.

What’s your temperature Sparky? It’s -2 here so We should be OK for a while once it all arrives.

Looking like a snow-to-rain event for my neck of the woods, as the wind backs round to the east tomorrow afternoon and the dew points pick up. Lincoln/Sleaford/Bourne west should stay as snow.

EURO4 output is now out and it still looks good for us - perhaps a slight upgrade for the western most parts of Lincs and Cambs, reflected by the Met adjusting the amber warning area just a bit further east.

I think that’s wise. Whilst the bbc forecast this morning was quite bullish about the prospect of snow right to the coast in Lincs, Norfolk and Suffolk, the GFS and ECM control were a bit more marginal. That said, we had snow on the beach just over a week ago in conditions not much more favourable than tomorrow’s are predicted to be, so certainly not game over - not by a long way.

It was a cold, breezy but beautiful day out on the Lincolnshire coast today. As for the rest of the weekend, still all to play for. Recent BBC forecast looked very promising if you want snow.

Thanks 4wd. I’ll be up above Farndale tomorrow afternoon, so fingers crossed it won’t have all gone by then.

Just driven over the top of the Yorkshire Wolds from Fimber to North Grimston and it’s still looking very white - very picturesque in the sunshine. Looking forward to a trip onto the moors tomorrow.

Snow at Saltfleetby this afternoon. Turned a bit sleety now but still lying snow when I left around 5.

Snow showers all day here at Saltfleet on the Lincs Coast. I’m almost on the beach and we’ve got half an inch of lying snow - 1st for us since 2013.

The Environment Agncy has issued 19 flood warnings for coastal areas and tidal rivers from N of Whitby to Humberston for tomorrow's high tide. They're going up at a rate of about 4 an hour. https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings#flood-warnings

This still looks concerning for a North Sea storm surge on Friday - Spring tide between 4 and 7am down the east coast with sustained NNW at 40mph or higher close inshore - one to watch.

I've not much to add to Frog or Kar's posts, except to say that if you're looking to pick up an DSLR, I've found one where you can focus using 'liveview' (on the screen at the back of the camera) is really useful for infinity focussing, and one with a mirror lock-up function (first press of the shutter lifts the mirror, second press exposes the sensor) really helps reduce motion blur on long exposure. A lot of entry-level DSLRs have these features now. I'm flying to Saariselka in February to photo the Aurora Borealis!

Yeah, I picked up on that. Spring tides, gale force NNWs and dropping pressure from the North explains why the EA identified the risk of a North Sea storm surge on Friday. GFS 18z run - Friday morning. High tide at Whitby is 4.30ish, Skegness 6.30ish - definitely worth keeping an eye on if you live on the seafront, given the high tides already forecast.