Cassarah

Just got this from the Canadian Hurricane Centre: WOCN31 CWHX 241200 HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT MONDAY 24 OCTOBER 2005. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT ...WILMA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL STORM WHILE AFFECTING THE MARITIMES WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 N AND LONGITUDE 81.0 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM EAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 955 MB. WILMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH OCT 24 9.00 AM 26.1N 81.0W 955 105 194 OCT 24 9.00 PM 29.8N 76.1W 973 85 157 OCT 25 9.00 AM 35.7N 70.3W 968 75 139 OCT 25 9.00 PM 42.2N 64.8W 973 60 111 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 AM 46.4N 60.7W 976 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 26 9.00 PM 48.0N 57.5W 981 55 102 POST-TROPICAL OCT 27 9.00 AM 48.6N 53.9W 985 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MARITIMES. THOSE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO REGIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 110 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 120 KM/H ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 70 MM RANGE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY MORNING AND REACH CAPE BRETON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES FROM BROKEN TREE BRANCHES. MANY TREES..PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA ..STILL CONTAIN LEAVES WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN BRANCHES AND POWER OUTAGES. HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY POUNDING SURF ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THEIR IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN NOVA SCOTIA. 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE EASTERLIES OVER SHELF WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A RISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY OVER EASTERN SHORE AND SABLE REGIONS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS WILMA REINTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY-THREE STATUS WHEN IT STRUCK THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE STORM CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AS THE DEEP-LAYERED STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. B. PROGNOSTIC HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT RACES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AT 00HR..AND IS USED AS THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT. IT SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO CYCLONES.. WILMA AND A BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE..DEEP TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN COCOONED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE BAROCLINIC LOW EVEN UP UNTIL THE CENTER OF EX-WILMA REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. WILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE 582-DAM THICKNESS ENVIRONMENT ALL THE WAY TO 45N. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT WILMA WILL BEHAVE AS A HYBRID CYCLONE WITH A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...YET WITH A COMPACT WIND CORE POSSIBLY SURVIVING AS IT MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS. BY WEDNESDAY..THE REMANTS OF EX-WILMA AND THE BAROCLINIC LOW MAY BE MERGED INTO A LARGE DECAYING LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA MAY ALSO BECOME INGESTED INTO THE WILMA TODAY. THIS COULD AID IN THE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. C. PUBLIC WEATHER SEE DETAILS ABOVE. D. MARINE WEATHER PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 24/12Z 200 210 175 160 125 130 100 85 65 80 55 45 25/00Z 210 230 205 165 115 150 105 75 70 90 65 30 25/12Z 290 265 255 225 105 155 100 35 50 90 50 10 26/00Z 340 300 300 285 125 150 50 30 0 0 0 0 26/12Z 305 300 300 255 140 150 60 70 0 0 0 0 27/00Z 285 300 325 240 150 150 120 80 0 0 0 0 27/12Z 275 300 375 240 190 150 120 80 0 0 0 0 END FOGARTY/ROUSSEL <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

000 WTNT44 KNHC 202031 TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005 WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN INDICATED HERE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.7W 130 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.4W 140 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 79.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

K thanks Mondy!

Really? I'm in south eastern Ontario. Smack dab in the middle between Ottawa & Montreal (Quebec) How likely is it to come this far inshore? We have gotten good soakings from hurricane remnants, but nothing really big with high winds and everything that I can recall.

Thanks!

Um, this caught my eye. Just wondering where you heard this, and are they talking about the Maritime provinces?

000 WTNT44 KNHC 191459 TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT PENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT SPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...AS WILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF WILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS. PRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN MOTION OF 300/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. IN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN FOUR DAYS. THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER RUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS. THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 83.2W 150 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 84.0W 150 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.1N 85.1W 150 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.9W 145 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 86.2W 135 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 84.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 39.0N 69.0W 80 KT

Mondy, I started watching hurricanes after Ivan. I've been lurking here for a while now, but decided to join today. I seem to learn more about what's going on here than anywhere else. That image of Gilbert is amazing! Thanks for the reply. :unsure:

Thanks for the reply Steve. :unsure:

Hi Mondy, I'm new here, but was wondering if you might know what hurricane holds the record for rapid intensification.

Hurricane WILMA Discussion -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Strike Probs Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182042 TCDAT4 HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED. ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS FOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.7N 81.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 82.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.2N 83.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 85.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 22.5N 85.5W 110 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 82.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 30.5N 75.5W 70 KT

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 ...WILMA BECOMES THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT HEADS NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES... 320 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200 MILES... 325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN