chris55

Very heavy snow in Eastington now (5miles West of stroud!)

Light wet snow here in Eastington, not settling, just melting the frost lol. Stroud, with that bit of elevation looks great @bellanite. Im surprised TBH as it’s the coldest part of the day. Edit: Actually is settling a bit now.

Showers look to be heading towards the Bristol area? Currently crossing Cardiff. Also could swing northward as they wrap around with the small feature associated later on tonight.

This isn’t over yet IMO. UKMO quicker with the initial low allowing a small ridge ahead of the second/spoiler low. This keeps the spoiler low out west keeping the cold in place. With the NH profile, it kinda feels like dec 2010, when all roads led to cold, even when the Ops and sometimes then ens were scouting out a milder option. Great model watching

That’s a really good visualisation of the situation, looks like this push from the Atlantic may be hardly noticeable! By the time surface conditions have mixed out its back to a colder trend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a U.K. high of sorts holding us in the cold throughout with the Atlantic Low being more elongated come next weekend.

So part of the Trop PV moves across the globe from east to west, with another cross polar flow setting up on EC 240…. December 2022 going down in the history books at this rate!

This looks totally feasible to me. I was thinking two roads to continued cold earlier, one being the Atlantic ridge (ahead of the Atlantic low) reinforcing heights towards Greenland . As above

The Azores high…normally the game maker looks a bit shy….. I think we are in the game, at least to some extent till the end of the month.

The queue from the Atlantic looks pretty pathetic tbh! If compared to the energy on the other side of the globe. Anything beyond day 5 in such a turbulent period should be analysed with some caution either way.

If these Atlantic lows can disrupt a little and draw up an Atlantic ridge ahead then surely this cold spell has a way to go yet! When looking at the NH profile, that looks like a decent bet at the moment. Its either an Atlantic ridge ahead of the Lows reinforcing the Greenland heights, or the lows make a bit more progress and inflate a Scandi high instead. That’s our two routes to continuing cold IMO. 12zs incoming

Hi Nick, With such an anomalous NH profile, do you think we can use the longer range spreads with the same confidence as in a more mobile/usual winter scenario? Or should we be more cautious than normal with the longer range predictions?

Fortunately, the NH synoptic profile is so primed for U.K. cold we are continuing the cold theme.

Where on earth has the trop PV gone!! These charts are super rare!! Canada is visible….not purple :0 Surely snowfall will come one way or another with such exceptional NH Synoptics. Great times to be in the MOD The snow WILL come…..

Absolute peach! ️ We have these historic snow events of years gone by where this exact set up delivers as shown above, they are a rare thing these days and in my 20 years model watching I don’t think one has come to fruition. Hopefully we can nail this one, long way to go yet mind

I think I’ve fallen in love

UKMO If all that energy can get under then it’s a raging easterly! If not then it’s GFS. Lots to keep us on our toes!

A few hundred miles either way and it’s either northern France or the north of England on the boundary. As everyone should be aware these charts deciphering an Atlantic low coming up against a cold block are impossible to get right at this range. More runs needed. ECM can not be ignored, and it shouldn’t be also the ensembles are trending tentatively with the Azores low pushing further north, but we need some inter run consistency and solid ensemble support before we can call It.

The mean does stay below 0c for London though….you’d think with some ppn and (hopefully a southeasterly flow ahead of the low) a fair few would see snowfall at the boundary?

Why only talk about ECM? Take UKMO for example! All this debate relates to the Azores low and how it eventually interacts with the cold blocked pattern over the U.K. Experience tells us these Atlantic incursions often fall short, earlier today BA was suggesting anywhere from Pyrenees to Scotland for the boundary! More runs needed

The modelling of the Azores Low seems to be the trigger here. IMO your confidence in its track at day 6/7 is premature. We shall see, but at this range, surely measured forecasters will await full ensemble support before making a solid judgment? I’ll hold you to your assumption it will barrel through and bring milder weather to the entire U.K. ,boundary blizzard aside for now - transitory or not.

Are you both not seeing the MASSIVE northern hemisphere disruption???? With the PV lifted right out of Canada?

It hasn’t verified? We are all here looking at a very complicated local synoptic pattern coupled with a very blocked and unusual NH set up and making finite judgements on charts at day 7 (the 0c Isotherm crosses England day 7.) My advice would be give it a few days before claiming any victory’s.

Exactly my point! It’s the modelling of the Azores low, not the African height rises that you should have mentioned. However I don’t agree with your general assessment of the operationals, you tend to be to Knee Jerk in your evaluations. ive been here since 2005 also…..;)

I personally wouldn’t call it flop in the context of the array of options the operational runs have thrown out post day 6. NH profile still ripe for continued cold.

The forcing is (unusually) from the north, so those heights over NE Africa are simply a reflection of the Azores Low at this particular timeframe.