chris55

Its essentially just dryer air. The dew point is the stage where the air can no longer hold the moisture so it relents and the moisture gathers on solids, like dew on the grass. In my experience cold dry air often feels less cold than more humid cold air. Moisture conducts heat more readily than air, meaning a cold damp day feels colder than a day when the air is dry, but the temp is lower. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4799672

Its essentially just dryer air. The dew point is the stage where the air can no longer hold the moisture so it relents and the moisture gathers on solids, like dew on the grass. In my experience cold dry air often feels less cold than more humid cold air. Moisture conducts heat more readily than air, meaning a cold damp day feels colder than a day when the air is dry, but the temp is lower.

Smattering of snow here in Eastington this morning. cold and very Icy

polar low territory? Can’t remember the exact parameters for a true polar low to develop but looks possible.

Reminds me of xmas day 2004, snow shower late on the day gave a nice seasonal dusting in parts of Gloucestershire

Bank that Ali This December so far has shaped up to be the best for cold and snow we have seen for many years. If we could get another fall over xmas that’d just be the icing on the cake.

Nothing falling from the sky in Stroud this morning even though the radar shows the front well over is! Must be lots of sublimation (evaporation) as the moisture takes the cold out of the air so to speak.

Be sad to see all the snow melt. Today is the first day I can here a drip drip. So that’s pretty much a week of lying snow which is very rare for here! Been a memorable spell in Stroud and surrounding areas. Sunday IMG_9250.MOV Monday Wednesday And this little guy…..who’s time is up ️

Xmas weekend into Boxing Day looks to have the potential for a battleground snow event somewhere in the U.K. Lots to get through yet mind!

Already down to -5 at Fairford! -7 at Benson.

Hopefully that’ll drive some WAA into the Artic due to the lack of zonal flow generally

Coldest night in England since 2010 last night. -11c That’s remarkable for central U.K.

The Trop PV is shredded. U.K. winter still on the cards. Easterly the form horse into new year IMO.

Don’t forget the “brutal cold” outside right now for the U.K…..

It would only be ‘rage inducing’ if it verified…… long way to go yet.

Yes but surely the foundations for the algorithm is set from past knowledge and events. Even though, once that instruction is initiated it just processes the data. What im getting at is basically if we were in a standard zonal flow with a big trop PV over Canada the modelling would be a little more straightforward for what reasons that would be is up for debate.

Are you sure about that Mike? Surely the model Algorithm has historic data dialled into the code? It would seem unthinkable these computers wouldn’t use the wealth of past data to predict new events? Absolutely genuine question here. Done a bit of Googling but didn’t have time to read through all the articles.

These ensembles are to far apart for any confidence in the forecast, some very cold runs in there (London) p1 and p 6 the two extremes - coldest and mildest for xmas eve.

P23 the coldest option for day 7 p22 the mildest for day 7

Im actually really looking forward to what the ECM has for us this evening. GFS short ensembles showing op on the milder side. London.

Surely these super computer have a “average” bias locked into their algorithms? With the NH profile as it, and with the constant chopping and changing with each operational, and to some extent the ensembles, I would think we need to be really careful if we are trying to make forecasts beyond the 4/5 day period. Plenty to get though in the shorter term before we can be confident in the mid term

Lots of scatter on the ensembles. Op on the less cold side for London

Just popped outside with a cuppa to check temp and seen two very clear and bright shooting stars streak through the crisp and ultra clear night sky! Was amazing! Googled it and it’s the Geminid meteor shower and it peaks tonight. So if you outside have a look

Just look at how the NH profile is causing big swings in the mid term, for the U.K. at least! The one line brigade on here need to be a little more pragmatic throughout the day IMO. Still could go anywhere over xmas TBH but we gotta see the pattern for what it is and factor that into our analysis (which most do.)

I prob will, was meant to be on site this week but all cancelled due to the weather (suits me !) so off again tomorrow. Some alpine conditions I’m thinking