chris55

Lovely runs again this morning. Get the thermals ready, and hopefully the sledges will be dusted off in the next few weeks as well :) .

Nice Boxing Day charts this morning. The Iceland wedge enough to disrupt the zonal flow south. Hopefully gain some consistency as we head through the next few days

Cold front moving south xmas day on GFS. Although the models have deffo been trending away from anything interesting re colder weather. 12z shows nothing set in Stone yet.

UKMO pretty tidy this evening

Merry Xmas eve ️!

I’m liking the fact the low has moved south into France end of week. The result is a good feed of low 850s across pretty much all parts with lower dew points. That will feel more wintry, along with a high chance of some showers or troughs moving in the flow. Also allows the colder air to become a little more established for any potential ‘slider’ to actually deliver snowfall, as opposed to sleety rain or wet damp cold stuff that was being predicted for Thursday Friday. Interesting start to winter for sure, nice to be back viewing the charts and having lots to discuss. Here’s to a great winter ahead

Anyone’s guess I’m thinking. A case of waiting and seeing. I’ve seen plenty of surprises in these kind of situations for our area. I think some of the short range models are giving a few cms over the higher ground so have to be in with a chance

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see at least some falling snow and possible accumulations in Gloucestershire early hours tomorrow. As that cold air digs south, we look to be right in the centre of the pivot.

Could well see some snow in the region tomorrow morning as the low pulls away, pulling the cold air back south on the western flank.

Cloud base now streaming in from the east. Flakes blowing in the wind but nothing worthwhile! Forecast for the next 24/48 hours is really tricky. Radar is changing hour to hour. Window watch is prob the best option I’m thinking

Light snow here in Eastington (near Stroud.)

Could be an interesting 48 hours for some in our region looking forward to watching things unfold. Be it white or wet, should be fun ️ Im hoping for some of the white stuff up into the north of the region, I know we have a few members in and around Stroud, and of course @Ali1977 is north east Cotswolds. Good luck to everyone:)

No apologies IMBYism, but tonight’s EC is one of the best short term snow forecasts I have seen for my area in many years!

ECM keeping Thursday/Fridays low further south, and more disrupted.

Short ensembles show the uncertainty with the ‘snow line’ position. (These are Stroud -south wales latitude) IMO the boundary will be midlands into Thursday. Potential to keep enough cold as the the low exits.

It’s that balance of the cold air vs the mild push, i personally would like to see one of these battleground scenarios actually come off. To often this winter ( every time) the Atlantic has pushed to far south and left us dry and cold. Hopefully EC is on the extreme side of the northerly extent of the Atlantic air. UKMO is a little too south. Usually these kind of charts settle in the middle….and I have a funny feeling this final ‘battleground’ of the season may actually deliver somewhere in the middle of the U.K.

Cold plunge early next week followed by battleground frontal snowfall potential. Thereafter it’s a fine balance between continued cold pushing from the north and the potential for mild air to win out

This looks primed for an Atlantic push… that equals SNOWFALL! Cold is overrated in March, snow is the goal I’m thinking?

That’s all very well Nick Melodramatic Sussex…. I’ll keep that in mind when reading your posts

I agree! That’s a very rare synoptic chart. Beautiful!

Depends what gets you in a ‘sour mood!’ more analysis please Nick, less hyperbole As I said before, at this time of year many are enjoying the lighter evenings and the warm sun on our faces when the wind is light. This spell looks primed to produce some March snowfall (for some) with the milder Atlantic set to push in against the cold air. Beyond that hopefully we can get ready for spring

That’ll do! At this time of year a few frosts and a good snow day followed by spring would suit many I would think

Better or more favourable means colder and potentially frostier and snowier. Until we get to may this thread will be looking for the white stuff

Nobody knows what to expect ….Just expect the expected or unexpected.

I can foresee another cold and dry spring. These Strat forecasts will no doubt eventually filter down. The question is can we get the easterlies to filter down in time for some decent wintry conditions at the end of winter/early spring.