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About SNOW-MAN2006

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    The Lean Mean weather Forecasting Machine

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    Tyne & Wear
  1. Looking at the radar these showers in north sea may hit landfall soon and they are moving in a straight line N-S. Could this be a streamer for Sunderland area and produce some snow. That is the question.
  2. See if anyone can establish why ive posted this chart ... Regards SM06
  3. [attachment=71589:Winter_Forecast.docx] SM06
  4. Seaosnal outlook and Early Winter thoughts; [attachment=67895:Autumn_2...Forecast.docx] SNOW-MAN2006
  5. Here is my august Forecast; [attachment=66537:August_F...ast_2008.docx] Sorry it is in Word 2007 SM06
  6. Sorry, i have been having BIG internet torubles, But i am past them now and am in the USA! Last night it was 100F at 6:00pm in the evening, i dread to think what it was during the day. As for my July forecast, it was produced before i left and was posted on [url="http://www.freechatandweather.com/page%204.htm"]freechatandweather[/url] but i didnt post it here for some reason! When i get back to the UK, i will be moving into the 21st Century and i will subsribe to NW-Extra! It's like ive entered a new era! Any way here it is, a "bit" late, and i will be updating it next week some time. So stay tuned as i havent dissapeared! July 2008 Forecast Well, my June forecast is going well I believe and I reckon that the final figure (CET) will be close to what I have forecast. July is expected to be another mixed month with times of warmth but higher than average rainfall! The GFS is now starting to show the beginnings of July in a reliable time frame. The situation being projected at this stage is for low pressure to assert itself, temporarily, to the west for a few days and high pressure to the east. This will force southerly winds upon the country and giving us the traditional heat wave, that lasts 2 or 3 days. This is always short lived and is concluded with a thundery show-down and I think by the 4th this will be exactly what will happen. This is backed up in the NAO as it turns positive indicating low pressure riding north over Greenland and high pressure building form the south. This progression isn’t KEY for hot weather however we may see warmer easterly winds from time to time giving warm conditions. The wettest areas this month will be to the north west and driest to the south east as there is going to be a constant battle between high and low pressure. The warm mid-Atlantic means we will see some strong low pressure systems developing, which will provide a strong battle against this high. I feel mid-month will see a more low-pressure dominated theme and as a result we will get some thundery activity and SW’ly winds, which are still warm! Following trends in the NAO I expect any warm periods to be few and short lived. I will update mid-month with more tools available to me then. Many Thanks SNOW-MAN2006
  7. LONG RANGE OUTLOOK Well, First of all i must apologise to my readers for my recent absence. It was unforeseen and unmanageable, but now i am starting to update more frequently as resources gradually become more available to me. Now onto the forecast. My last forecast, back in march proved very successfully continuing my excellent forecasting track record. In my absence i have been able to realise just how amazing our weather truly is and how i take the models for granted in knowing what to expect in future days. The remainder of June will remain with constant swings in weather, as indicated by the latest NAO forecasting, with variations between periods of positive and negative 4 days segments. So for the remainder of this week the NAO will be negative. Signalling high pressure to the north forcing low pressure south giving us unsettled and at times windy weather. As with a change in pressure, there comes a change in wind direction and we will begin to see northerly winds and cooler weather. Come mid-month, we will begin to witness high pressure retreat and allowing warmer air from the south to migrate north, but only for a few days before we see a return to the varying NAO and the battle between cooler northern air and warmer southern air, this will lead to thunderstorms at times, more prone i'd say in the north. Following mid-month there is little to signal high pressure significantly retreat from the north so i can see it remaining cool and at times unsettled. This theme may well continue into july. JUNE CET PREDICTION; 15.0 (+0.9) Above average, in respect of the recent warmth. I will update my monthly forecast at the end of June before i jet off for 3 weeks to the USA! SNOW-MAN2006
  8. April Forecast 2008 Well quite an AVERAGE March, I predict a slight above average one, but still a reasonably predicted month. April then, and the charts showing the possibility of something colder in the not so distant future? First Week; The first day of April looks set to have some rain, especially in the north, becoming heavy at times! This is associated with a low-pressure system crossing the north of the country. High pressure will then climb up from the south leaving a relatively unsettled remainder of the working week. Something of note however for the end of the week as low pressure sits to our north east feeding in some colder northerly winds. This could certainly bring the risk of snow to some northern areas later in the week, but always with snow, it is very hard to predict and Is still a long way off so external factors, such as sea effect etc, aren’t accounted for not to mention the precipitation levels, and confidence remains low on this events however, as always, I will monitor the situation. Second Week; After a relatively cold or cool first week the weather should really begin to warm up here, but I feel it may remain “cool” and remaining unsettled I feel. Low pressure never too far away and lots of unsettled and cool days as low pressure runs unusually far south of the country pushing in Easterly (still relatively cool) or Southerly Winds (not from a warm source). Last 2 Weeks; I feel High pressure may re-assert itself in this last half, extending northwards over the country feeding in some moist dry continental air, but always the risk of low pressure nudging it south at times giving some unsettled periods. Overall I will punt for a CET of 8.2 in consideration of the cooler first half. Many Thanks SNOW-MAN2006
  9. Onto my forecast (charts absent); Right then, the site and forum are now up and running smoothly and I have finally found time to fit in a "late mid-month" update. This weekend has seen some sleet and snow cross the country with over 10cm in places. My previous forecast failed to highlight this but I did acknowledge the fact in my forecast that the future was unpredictable, with very few people forecasting this event. Onto the forecast then for March and April 2008; The NAO chart (as seen below) current shows that the current colder weather is down to a negative NAO. This means Low pressure is to the south (anticlockwise winds) and high pressure to the north (clockwise winds) winds allowing the flow of air to come from a much colder north. With low pressure anchored to the east we have seen arctic air flood the country giving snow to many. As you can see it is likely to remain (forecast to) negative well into the first week of April. This means low pressure will continue to feed in colder air over the UK for the time being, winds may veer westerly however from time to time signalling the introduction of milder and wetter weather. My long range forecasts are based on trends and are usually quite successful. Negative phases tend to last for 2 weeks before returning to a positive phase and this 2 week phase is now 3 days in so I expect the first week of April, and the remainder of March to be consumed by this negative phase. So a cool and sometimes wintry theme likely for the next week or two, but seeming as it's almost April the weather seems unlikely to be excessively cool. If this was January however I wouldn't be too surprised if temperatures stayed below freezing all day for this wintry period. During the first week of April the weather will turn milder as high pressure builds from the south. The strength of the NAO is critical here to weather the High pressure will climb far enough North to give mild dry winds or whether low pressure will be squeezed over us keeping it very wet and windy! I think it will be a slow transition, at first wet and windy before by mid-month it will turn dry and mild with a pleasant spring like week. I expect this to remain a similar theme for the April month allowing the final temperatures to be above average. So all in all, winter makes a VERY Late appearance before spring comes bleating in towards April to leave a fine and settled spring in place! Many Thanks SNOWMAN2006
  10. Febraury Forecast How_to_Forecast___Long_Term.ppt SNOW-MAN2006
  11. Here is my Forecasts all in one spot for easy viewing from 2007. I must apologise for some of the forecasts being copied over as i had to screenshot my winter forecast as it had far to many seperate images for me to copy efficiently. These forecasts were all produced by myself and is all my own work. 2007_Archive_of_All_Seasonal_and_Monthly_Forecasts.doc Enjoy and all the best for 2008 SNOW-MAN2006
  12. Im afraid, looking at this mornings un-inspiring charts that January will remain pretty unsettled. Little snow and generally miserable. The charts have been pretty consitant of late and the only cold spell is tommorrow and then i fear it wont be till after mid-month till anything may happen. I am quite dissapointed of late with the weather hence the lack of updates. I am sick of this global warming and just want to see what 10 inches of snow would be like, i think i am going to Immigrate to Canada... or maybe not... CET prediction ; 4 and Percipitation; 100%+ Many Thanks and enjoy this very breif cold snap... im keeping my fingers crossed for a slight dusting in the morning but knowing my luck it will be raining ... and btw it was snowing heavily but not settling! SM06
  13. Of course there will always be the big 'if' word but here is the current synoptics. We are continuing to pour great amounts of C02 into the atmosphere. As we all know C02 is the main cause of global warming. Now already the effects are being seen with vast amountsd of ice melting in the arctic and Antartic. Like desribed from the last ice age 10 mellelias ago a large amount of fresh water was deposited in the atlantic causing widspread cooling to thos who recieved the warmth from the ocean currents, europe and america. Snow fell in july in some parts of america!!! But the main cause for concern lies now because of the vast amounts of fresh water being deposited into the oceans disrupting and slowing these currents. So in response to your question, based upon what we know, a new iceage is inevtiable but judging by the current rate of decrease in cooler water sinking i would estimate in the next 75 years we could see the start of a much cooler period or the next 'ICE AGE'. At the soonest the next 10 years but i would bet on the next 75. The only way we can stop this is by increasing the density of the water so that the colder water sinks again but at this moment in time it is looking like an ice age is inevitable. SM06
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