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Roger J Smith

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Everything posted by Roger J Smith

  1. The provisional CET was 5.3 to 27th, 1.5 above 61-90. I think that matches earlier peaks before the cold spell. Can report that the EWP tracker will very likely end up at 78 mm tomorrow with that value for 27th, and zero rainfall shown across the grid on 28th. Once confirmed, I will let you know the updated scoring for EWP.
  2. J10, the above appears to be on time, it was posted pretty much on the stroke of midnight ... I am just posting this for clarification and forecasts appearing after this post are going to be late one day (to three days). You can still enter with the late penalties though.
  3. Table of forecasts for March 2021 The number in brackets beside forecaster name is order of entry (of last revised CET). If EWP not revised at same time, it retains original order but drops by 0.5 to fit between new set of integers for CET order. Anyone revising only EWP receives a similar new EWP entry between two CET forecast entries on either side. Late entries are L1-1 to L1-?? for one day late, L2-1 etc for two days late, L3-1 etc for three days late. No entries accepted after three days of month being predicted. CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER ________________________ CET __ EWP __ F
  4. The EWP tracker has reached 78 mm (24th) and appears to have added nothing on the 25th so with zero predicted on the GFS we are quite possibly at our final value. At least the preliminary value, the final value comes on the 5th when a table value is revealed and it can change slightly from the tracker. Anyway, I will wait until the 2nd when the tracker has reached the 28th to give a summary of EWP scoring for both February and the winter seasonal portion of the contest year. Only slight adjustments will be needed from the version shown a few days ago.
  5. I read on another thread that 18.4 at Santon Downham in Suffolk was the winter max on Tuesday. If that location doesn't count, the meteociel map shows 17.9 at Weybourne same date.
  6. Would guess we will finish 5.3 or 5.4 before corrections but those could be fairly large, so anywhere from 4.9 to 5.2 seems most likely and see my earlier post for a summary of who said what in that general vicinity (not many went that high for CET). EWP looks to be settling in around 80 mm. The southeast has probably been considerably drier than that average. The change in regime must seem even more dramatic in Germany, where I notice some readings today of 20 C, in areas that had -15 overnight lows in the cold spell, as well as 10-20 cm snow cover (I presume that's all gone). The
  7. EWP will probably come in slightly higher than the excel scoring provisional used earlier (74.9 mm) at around 78 to 82 mm. Not a big enough difference to bother with an update now, will post the preliminary value on 2nd March with the adjusted scoring file. CET may manage to stay in the high 4s thanks to a combination of cool nights later this week and a fairly high probability of a significant downward adjustment on the six-day cold spell values (have the feeling that will take one quarter of the month down almost a degree so that might argue for about 0.3 correction this month? we shal
  8. For continuity ... 4.4 C to the 21st 0.8c above the 61 to 90 average 0.1c above the 81 to 10 average (0.3c below the 91 to 20 average) ___________________________ Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th
  9. For continuity ... 3.6c to the 18th bang on the 61 to 90 average 0.8c below the 81 to 10 average (1.0 below the 91 to 20 average) ___________________________ Current high this month 5.3c on the 5th Current low this month 2.3c on the 13th & 14th ========================================= Latest EWP estimates are 60 mm to mid-day and 80-85 final value.
  10. March CET averages and extremes _The forty most recent March CET values 1981-2020 are arranged by warmest (bold type) 12, middle 14 (italics) and coldest 14 (underlined)._ The uneven distribution is due to ties for 13th warmest in this interval. I placed those three in the middle range as fifteen warm would have been a bit excessive. The least cold of the 14 coldest are also three tied at 12th coldest. 15.1 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017) 14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777) 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957) 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938) 8.7
  11. EWP was 40 mm after 13 days, likely close to 50 mm as of 18z today with ten-day GFS output (to 25th) adding 25-30 on average. That would give totals of 75-80 mm. Maps for 26th-28th appear to add nothing, so our current estimate is 75-80 mm. I have attached the latest excel scoring estimates based on 74.9 mm but in the annual standings, if you predicted a bit higher than 75 mm you would move up if we reach even just 80 mm as there are quite a few forecasts in that range, see the Feb column for your potential scoring increase if we do have a higher total (and the differential can be double
  12. Well true, but at least winter showed up for the battle in 2020-21, it was a draw in my books, which puts it ahead of many other recent winters.
  13. The EWP has reached 40 mm and will add about 25 mm more according to the 10-day GFS (days 11 to 15 may add 5 more). That would end up around 70 mm, a rather average outcome. CET looks to me like it would average 6.5 for the second half so the outcome there is likely to be in the high 4s. The 1991-2020 normal will be 4.9 so that's not really all that mild by modern standards.
  14. That is mainly true of the summer extremes which as my tables show had peak readings in 1936 for July and 1918 for August. Some of the heat waves of those years were balanced by intervals of cool, dry weather so that the months were not the extreme values (although 1921, a rather average July for NYC, was and remains warmest on record for Toronto). The tables that I encourage people to use for monthly comparisons are the urban-heat-island adjusted tables since these will give the earlier readings the more appropriate placements. For example at Toronto July 1868 ranks several spots higher as it
  15. I have the NYC data base ready to share, but the link to official NYC temps still has not updated for Dec 2020 or annual 2020, and in my quality control I found two possible errors in that data base which I have forwarded through my New York City contact Don Sutherland who agreed with me that they appeared to be errors. Before 1920 the data base and the official numbers have larger variations which are evidently the product of data management so I have put in a request to find out if there are published revisions of the data, or if this was just done using formulae which apparently are partly
  16. Model depictions of cold at ten days -- fantasy island. Model depictions of mild at ten days -- guaranteed gulch
  17. A few years ago Summer Sun and myself discovered that one of us could see the updates and the other couldn't, we concluded it was something to do with different browsers and cleaning the cache issues. I can see the updated data today. The provisional numbers for the cold spell show an average of --0.1 for 7th to 11th. Unless the final values are 1.4 lower it would not have made the list that I showed a few days ago.
  18. I don't think it has exceeded 15 C anywhere in the designated region yet, so as long as there's one mild spell before February ends it will probably happen in that one, however, if cold maintains some influence we may need to pore over the ancient records from December. If we get to the J-storm as per my forecast, then the rest of this month would have to be a shocker. Had a look at archived maps of daily maxima during milder spells in Dec, Jan and the highest reading I found was 13.5 at Heathrow on 28 Jan. Also 13.6 at Benson (Oxon) on 2 Feb. If that's in the zone, not sure about that o
  19. Here are all the daily CET running means for 10 to 15 Feb in the past 20 years (starting with 2001) YEAR___CET 10 _CET 11_CET 12_CET 13_CET 14_ CET 15 2001 ___ 5.1 __ 5.4 __ 5.6 __ 5.4 __ 5.3 __ 5.2 2002 ___ 8.3 __ 8.4 __ 8.6 __ 8.5 __ 8.2 __ 8.0 2003 ___ 4.0 __ 4.1 __ 4.1 __ 3.9 __ 3.6 __ 3.4 2004 ___ 8.2 __ 8.1 __ 8.2 __ 8.2 __ 8.0 __ 7.9 2005 ___ 6.5 __ 6.6 __ 6.6 __ 6.4 __ 6.2 __ 6.1 2006 ___ 2.6 __ 2.5 __ 2.7 __ 3.1 __ 3.5 __ 3.8 2007 ___ 2.5 __ 2.8 __ 3.2 __ 3.5 __ 3.8 __ 4.0 2008 ___ 6.1 __ 6.1 __ 6.2 __ 6.1 __ 5.9 __ 5.8 2009 ___ 0.5 _
  20. I was in London in July 1965 which I believe is one of the few occasions since 1950 when a daily CET record min was set. It was fresh to say the least, not quite as bad as June 1972 which was unbelievably cold feeling (I spent that entire month in Britain despite having emigrated to Canada before that). EWP is around 40 mm at this point, I won't bother to report on projections because model guidance at the moment is about as reliable as the average Nostradamus quatrain for making a weather forecast.
  21. Snow chances should improve steadily this morning as colder 850s just arriving now on east coast, temps and dew points falling steadily all through Netherlands and western Germany, and daytime convection more vigorous with higher tops, readings on hills in Germany show how unstable the profile is with this air mass, so all things considered, any lingering rain or sleet in southeast should change over to snow around 0800-0900h. While -7 850s can be acceptable for snow, -10 is probably more of a guarantee. Assuming the hourly forecasts on GFS are accurate the values are just now reaching -
  22. Posted this information in our February contest thread a few days ago, to compare the predicted cold spell to similar events at this stage of the month in past years. The list contains all five-day CET averages that hit the span of days 5-9, 6-10, 7-11, 8-12 or 9-13, and achieved an average of -1.5 C or lower. This happened 27 times in 249 years with daily data. There are also comparisons with cold spells that fell in other parts of the month, especially those in more recent years. The ranks are only comparing the coldest value in the table, not the duration of cold. Although Feb 1947 does not
  23. 18z GFS run is even colder and could lead to a very low CET, there's almost no mild incursion left for next weekend then renewed cold that only fades out slowly. Values down into small negatives are quite possible in this case. (-0.5 to 1.5 range looks good for the output shown). Could all be a bit of a fantasy of course, we shall see.
  24. The cold is coming on fast now and has considerable depth with a rapid fall expected overnight in 850 mb temps. Looks to me like an extreme winter event for southeast England tomorrow. 20-40 cm snow potential, blowing snow in exposed areas. Similar if localized results later through the Midlands and Yorkshire. The North Sea is not particularly warm (widely reporting 6-7 C SST) so the modification of the cold surface flow will not be overly significant in terms of spoiling the snow potential through mixing; that milder sector between two advancing prongs of cold may see some mixing issues at fi
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