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The Eagle

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Everything posted by The Eagle

  1. The Eagle
    In case anyone was wondering about Pert 11...which is for sale. Just send a handsome amount of money to my bank account (details via PM)
  2. The Eagle
    The ensemble for the period of interest on this GFS run seem to be 1 or 2c colder over all than the previous run. Not the best operational run but doesn't tell the full story. What would really help is more cross model convergence later today
  3. The Eagle
    ICON continues to be consistent this morning. Minor intra run fluctuations as normal but these are inconsequential really. Been far better than the rest for persistency. Whether it's ball park in the end remains to be seen but based on previous 'events' I have high confidence it won't be far away. We shall see.
  4. The Eagle
    Right so, I have you booked in for worship at 6:50 pm this evening. Anyone else?
  5. The Eagle
    Tweet's 100% correct based on that suite...tbf
  6. The Eagle
    ICON is pretty consistent run to run at this stage. Not very encouraging.
  7. The Eagle
    Remember that's max temperature as well.
  8. The Eagle
    Pity we couldn't have the ECM really add to a wave of convergence this evening which keeps us all guessing. It has moved in the right direction but not enough and I'll be hoping for better tomorrow.
  9. The Eagle
    I declare the UKMO the world's foremost model on net weather (until 4am tomorrow morning when NAVGEM regains the coveted title)
  10. The Eagle
    You can't just "bin" something because it does not show what you want it to show. It's as legitimate data as anything else and has to be taken in to account clearly.
  11. The Eagle
    Nah, I genuinely expected the explosion of love, affection and respect for the model evident yesterday would extend beyond 9am... I was wrong...
  12. The Eagle
    I wonder why we've heard nothing about ICON this morning? There's a nice 6.00z run there to view out to 120 hrs
  13. The Eagle
    To be serious I think it's a valid point. Some see what they want to see and ignore signs that are not so favorable. It just leads to greater disappointment when they do that because it skews expectations. Whereas if you stay grounded by taking all the data available in the round you can avoid the stages of grief more easily.
  14. The Eagle
    Poor enough ECM. It's not so much the run itself which is not terrible but it's the trend to shove everything further north with each run which is a bit disappointing. Ah well. More chopping and changing to come yet though.
  15. The Eagle
    The ECM is not atrocious. It just wets the bed at day 6. Recovers a bit but it's a push back and there are some not good signals in the northern hemisphere SLP profile before that. Obviously all this will change again in the following runs so don't worry about it too much.
  16. The Eagle
    If you live in Scotland or NI maybe...
  17. The Eagle
    As expected. Could be an outlier.
  18. The Eagle
    It won't be. Atlantic coming in on this run almost certainly.
  19. The Eagle
    Oh dear
  20. The Eagle
    It's certainly much better in terms of potential propagation west of the truly cold airmass over Scandinavia. Only to 126 so could fall apart of course! The more landmass the origin travels over the better.
  21. The Eagle
    The only disappointment on the models is how mixed the airmass is getting as a result of not travelling mostly over land...would love to see those sub -8's getting in.
  22. The Eagle
    Yes my focus is Christmas Day It's ok but this evolution is very fragile so i'd urge super caution run by run.
  23. The Eagle
    Don't think anyone can be surprised at the GFS. An increasing percentage of the ensemble suites have been going this way, ballooning the LP to our west and ultimately forcing events further north, in recent runs. UKMO is ok but it doesn't cover the GFS for me, this trend was visible. Big ECM run coming. It will still work out ok for northern UK and most of Ireland.
  24. The Eagle
    Red extended to County Clare.
  25. The Eagle
    Warnings & Advisories - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland. Here are those warnings. Mean speed in excess of 80km/h, gusts expected in excess of 130km/h in the southwest.
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