Harry

Blitzortung going nuts with the storms in the Channel - going to come fairly close by the looks of it though no definite visuals of any lightning yet, surprising as it's now dark.

Internet access down here is weak at best. If anyone can post charts would be very grateful

Well in theory I couldn't be better placed the next couple of days down in warm and humid Dymchurch! Fingers crossed something blows ashore

Anyone in doubt about how close it will be, take a look at estofex, in particular the unusual extended forecast for Sunday to Monday which shows the far SE clipped by the Lvl 1/50% zone. There is reference to perhaps broadening the zone. Certainly one to keep a close eye on

I've been watching this for several days now and it is proper knife-edge stuff. Having been focussing primarily on GFS, it has been showing a large build up of instability literally the other side of the Channel, but has been largely keen to keep it there. It is all attached to a significant front laying diagonally across N/C Europe - for example, yesterday across France - to the north of the front temperatures were held back at around 15-16C, while south of the front (literally a mile or two the other side) temperatures were 26-28C+. As the HP builds in today and tomorrow, it tries to nudge some of that heat/humidity northwards, however is resisted by a predominately NW flow originating from the large area of LP to our NW - the result is the front currently present. As the HP establishes, a flabby low is going to run out of Iberia, across the Bay of Biscay and across N France through Sunday, so that by midnight it will sitting somewhere over N France off of the SE-UK coastline. Depending on where this runs will depend on whether that hot and unstable air reaches us. Around half the runs have been keen to throw some storms north across the far SE, while other runs (usually the 18z) very much keen to keep it over France/Benelux. The trend over the past 24-36 hours has been both to delay it and stunt its northerly extent, so that the UK misses out entirely. Today however, the trend has altered slightly - the 12z NMM 5, for example, now indicates up to 2,000 J/Kg running across Kent and Sussex during late Sunday/early Monday. Some runs are keeping everything well and truly over the Channel, while some runs are bringing some juice into play over the SE-UK. We all know the form - it could become a more widespread event, or stay over the continent altogether. But that explains the MetO warning - although I am slightly puzzled about the duration of the warning as the highest storm potential currently resides through Sunday night/Monday AM

Indeed, does seem to be creeping that way. I'm going to be down the coast over the weekend so might get lucky if there's a clipper. Models do seem to be struggling with the setup for the weekend so wouldn't completely rule out a reversion to a more favourable setup

As some would say, naturlich!! Keeping my fingers crossed for a glancing blow from a plume Sat night which GFS is currently advertising

Exactly the same here...I describe it as a drug, explaining that because we get storms here so infrequently, I need to make the most of them. When I start giving snippets of interesting facts, some people ask more questions and get more enthused than they otherwise would have...others say "that's nice" then get back to whatever it is they are doing...I don't understand it, there is something so incredibly awe-inspiring about them. I drive people mad about it - whenever there are storm clouds looming or thunder/lightning expected, I become a little obsessive. My bf has got to used to it now - when I say "Oh, potential for storms" I get the "oh I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad - that means you wont be wanting to go shopping then (etc.)"...the question is always rhetorical Like you JH, its all about the youtube vids and the "you've got to see this" My colleagues have also all but accepted that when storms are going on while I am in the office, I won't be rooted to my PC screen working...I will be up and down from the window, have the radar/blitzortung minimised and be having a few extra cheeky cig breaks while its going.

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/herne-bay/news/tornado-spotted-in-kent-42169/ Certainly appears to have coincided with a thunderstorm I was observing on blitzortung yesterday. Looks like a stone wall funnel and low enough for a brief tornado. I shall report to torro.

Has anyone posted this from yesterday? http://www.kentonline.co.uk/herne-bay/news/tornado-spotted-in-kent-42169/ Tornado/funnel cloud observed in Herne Bay, Kent yesterday afternoon. The timing does coincide with a thunderstorm I was watching over that area on blitzortung.

Not thinking so to be honest - some marginal potential across S/E Ireland this afternoon as well as a tongue of marginal instability running across S England. Tomorrow looking again marginal across SE quarter of England - potential for some very heavy rainfall and the odd isolated spark I would suggest. Sat/Sun looking interesting (tentatively) with a relative weak plume of unstable area running in from the south. Given the highly changeable, complex system of LP systems at the moment, I'm taking it with all due caution at this stage.

Indeed, no sooner as I type that a couple of pings show up on blitzortung. Unless its overhead I have no chance of hearing thunder in this glass box Hope that theres something occurring when I go out for a cig between 3 and 3:30 Rash of sferics showing up now near the Wash

View to my SE (from C London) - looks like absolutely torrential rain - skies look thundery to me but I am yet to notice anything electrical - blitzortung confirms this.

Drizzle-fest incoming....I fully expect it to go bombastic after passing the Thames

Really??? Complete opposite here - I hasten to add I am judging it on the feel and without question it's more humid. Marginally agitated mid levels here too with some small jellyfish and some weakly vertical Ac, only barely nudging AcCas status in some instances. Rain looks pretty benign though to the south so debatable whether anything will be too intense here.

Definitely (quite considerably in fact) more humid today than yesterday. The thick haze testifies to this, just a shame the thickness of the haze will suppress temperatures, although already it's very warm feeling. Fingers crossed for the odd spark and a peel of thunder later

Look at those clusters - Humana Humana Humana

Oh yeah!!

Try again!!! Look at this, OMG - so jealous!!

OMG look at this....green eyed monster

OMG look at this....green eyed monster

Some nice low bases there keep an eye out for funnels!

Know the feeling mate - might get our chance tomorrow with the cold front sweeping through. I haven't experienced one surfaced based storm this year (or even one proper clap of thunder) so fingers crossed for tomorrow.

Indeed, let's enjoy some sangria whilst watching West Country folks' and northerners' party unfold

Staring with increasing envy at the gorgeous activity growing on blitzortung Enjoying a couple of rum and cokes in this 31C heat Fingers crossed for the cold front tomorrow