Luke Best

I've struck lucky! Travelled to Haslemere yesterday evening and have woken up to a whiteout!

I was working then enf of 2012 - early 2013. I remember there was a lot of snow in Swindon then that settled.

Personally interested in any snow reports linked to model verification.

I don't believe that this is correct. As I understand it, the op is run at a high resolution and the control at a lower resolution. The 'GEFS members' are run with slightly adjusted starting data (and also at a lower resolution).

Even as it's snowing outside, we'll all be glued to this forum discussing when the breakdown is coming!

I wouldn't worry about output from UKMO and ECM - they'll surely fall into line with this morning's stellar output from the GFS! (Tongue firmly in cheek).

What followed? If memory serves me right we got a proper big dump of snow that winter. (Bournemouth).

And the year was?

Boo hoo, you sound of reason you!

Wow. Just driven through very heavy rain shower by Poole Harbour. Why wow? Rain falling from high level Ac Cas. Thought the radar was showing a large blobof ana prop, and then the rain came down, seemingly out of nowhere!

That storm over Switzerland is an absolute beast! Interesting analysis from Estofex: http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2017080118_201708011501_-_mesoscalediscussion.xml

Watched the show from Kefalonia - was absolutely incredible! Forks coming down constantly - returns on Blitzortung significantly underdoing the actual number of strikes.

Meanwhile, on holiday in Greece... It started overhead but kicked off on the mainland - just the most amazing lightshow, huge forks coming down all over the place! Still going on in the distance - can still see forks coming down well inland in the Peloponnese. Good luck back in Blighty this week folks. God how I wish I had the money to spend my summers chasing these hot weather beasts in the Mediterranean - what a life that would be!

Another stunning skyscape (not done proper justice by mobile phone cam).

Some nice ACu with virga in Bournemouth.

Nothing to do with the current outbreak, but this is well worth a watch. https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBCZYeq?m=en-gb&ocid=News

Horizon now filled with cirro-cumulus with virga. Clearly significant high-level wind as they are far from static. And another - just loving these skies:

Time for a bit of mackerel

Updated skies over Bournemouth:

Interesting. Got some convection going on at cirrus level. Cirro-cumulus here with virga, if you can pick it out from my crappy phone camera photo...

I have absolutely nothing to back this up, but I've just got a nagging feeling Bournemouth is well positioned. I've actually got relatively high hopes of getting a storm early morning tomorrow. Anyhow - good luck to all, wherever you are.

I used to be a member of Met Monkey. I get what people saying about hyperbole but in my experience Keithy Joe has a particularly good understanding and track record of forecasting thunderstorm events, so whilst I understand what people are saying I also note with interest Keithy Joe's thoughts on the situation. Let's not forget that in recent years there have been some tragic incidents involving young children where bouncy castles have been taken high into the air by sudden gusts of wind. Maybe it's not such a bad idea to make people vigilant where the POTENTIAL is as severe as perhaps it is today?

Was expecting to wake up to clear blue skies again, so surprised when I opened the window to this:

@Robbie Garrett @James1979 Is this the document you're after? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/pdf

Friday night might have been one hell of a light show. But tonight - the thunder, whilst infrequent, is incredibly loud!