STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING OF 2011. BIAS-CORRECTED SST FORECASTS FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM(CFS) INDICATE THAT THE NINO 3.4 ANOMALY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THEIR CURRENT LEVELS NEAR -1.5 C TO AROUND -1.0 C BY THE FMA SEASON AND REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT INTO THE SUMMER SEASON. MOST STATISTICAL MODELS FOLLOW THE CFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF 2011 BUT PREDICT SST ANOMALIES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH NEAR NORMAL SSTS PREDICTED BY THE SUMMER. THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS A FAIRLY EVEN MIX OF MULTI-YEAR AND SINGLE YEAR LA NINA EVENTS, SO AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO STRONG INDICATIONS OF THE ENSO STATE PAST MID 2011. A CONSOLIDATION FORECAST OF THE CFS, A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG TOOL, THE MARKOV MODEL AND THE CCA FORECASTS FOR NINO 3.4 SSTS SHOWS ANOMALIES BELOW -.5 C CONTINUING TO AROUND AMJ 2011, SUGGESTING CONTINUED LA NINA CONDITIONS INTO THE LATE SPRING. THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL FORECAST INDICATES THAT SSTS ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, FAVORING ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY MID 2011. QUICK Q if its going to fall into neutral nina by Summer(early I think)...what does that entail for our chances of severe Storms.... good or bad. anyone know