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Everything posted by StormChaseUK
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surprising how the pattern just seems to repeat, a plume of warmer air nearly makes it in then down swoops the low pressure from NW, x 20 times. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Spring and Summer weather moans
StormChaseUK replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
This summer isn't too bad really, not had too much rain, not really been too cold. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Long way off, but with temps that hot in NW France we are bound to get some scraps leftover on the plate for Southern UK. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
18z is very warm, hot -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Occasional lightning observed from Ludlow , from the storms active over Hereford West in line to Hay on Wye. Tame but a night storm none the less. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Classic nocturnal destabilisation -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Lightning appearing over Brecon Beacons now. Elevated popcorn pockets popping off in various locations. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z is better for next weekend yes, plume appears (sort of) then again during following week fi. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sunday looks interesting more from a thunderstorm point of view now. Depending how humid/how much sunshine can break through and rocket up the temperatures. Would only take a shift a few hundred miles either way. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Same old story with the GFS lol - The Met Office/Weather APP difference compared to GFS for this weekend is bizarre. Met Office 23c some places Saturday, GFS has 8c - v confusing. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
06z still going for that warmer plume around mid month. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Slow progress but there are signs that the HP from SW keeps trying to build in, just need to let those pesky lows from the North disolve away. It's not ideal but it's better than having the low right over the UK, if that second low can slip further south around 10th June we could be in for a very hot plume. FI. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes agreed it does appear to be a donkey carrot and stick situation. Hopefully third time lucky -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All is not lost , next weekend could show promise again. The area of low pressure that gets stuck next week slowly appears to erode when HP comes in from SW. Northerly about to get Terminated. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All that hot air over europe has to descend somewhere unfortunately it does look like the UK will be the low pressure breeding ground for June. I think this happened before in 2017, or 2018 during June the Shropshire hills were 6c and Paris was 36c -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The end of the 10 day trend if quite funny, even the Met don't know. The low to the SW is causing a headache.