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Portland Paul

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Portland, Dorset
  • Interests
    Gardening, Meteorology, Cycling, Astrology, Playing guitar and looking after my two young daughters. Brand new for 2006 - Ice Skating!
  • Weather Preferences
    Mixed winters and springs, thundery summers and meditteranean autumns

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  • J10

  1. May have been my mistake if the 18z hadn't fully rolled out, and Friday's run on the TWO site was still apparent, whoops
  2. No, it was the 18z, but as I expected in the 8 - 10 day time frame it appears to be an outlier, with the 00z (as you posted) amongst subsequent runs playing with the general idea of waxing and waning Azores influence and some mobility for the N and W UK
  3. GFS 18z run sticks us straight back into the furnace by next weekend, then keeps a stubborn strong high over southern Scandi, with bags of heat and humidity around in a slack continental flow and a few scattered T-storms especially in the west... Is this signs of the epic 2018 summer putting the icing on the cake???
  4. We can't expect 3 months of heat and sunshine in this country, but it is still possible. Especially if any Atlantic interference in mid range and FI continues to be pushed back or be aborted time and again! My money is on many more weeks of high pressure and heat!
  5. Portland Paul

    Monday 7th May Weather Observations

    Clear, sunny and very warm @ 21.3 c and a 4 mph easterly. Had already reached 18 c before 8 am, after overnight low of 13.5 c. All way above the surrounding sea temperature, with little wind, our wedge is well heated!
  6. Portland Paul


    Candlemas, 2nd February, if clouds and rain, winter is gone and will not come again.. probably works just as well too, as a dull, wet end January/ early February may tie with a progressive mild pattern (as in 2011 after the severe first half of winter). The clear and bright scenario certainly worked this year, for February and March!
  7. Hi all, Does anyone have any stats or satellite pics etc regarding the evening and overnight period of this intense belt of thunderstorms moving north through England and Wales? Off memory, May 1991 was very dry, dull and cold, then June 1991 became very wet and was mostly cool. During the first few days in July, low pressure sank southwards into Biscay allowing very warm and humid easterly airflow to affect the UK. Later on Friday 5th, torrential downpours moved up from the Channel to bring a succession of intense thunderstorms overnight in the Midlands, and it felt remarkably sultry and tropical. Anyone with any recollection of this night?
  8. Merry Christmas Paul, and to one and all! Just gone through the 6z GFS; after several mild and cloudy days until Christmas Day, we go into a few turbulent days, with some shots of cold air over the northern half of the UK, so the chance of wintry showers, maybe a surprise snowfall for a few
  9. It did on 8th December 1990, that was quite a blizzard! This evolution has shown some consistency in recent runs, and this latest run is extra special! At +168 can be remarkably accurate followed by the usual downgrades, followed by upgrading nearer the event.. Definitely one to keep an eye on..
  10. Portland Paul

    Summer of 1997: 20 years ago

    The extended summer, May to September 1997, was excellent in the West Midlands, with the notable exception of around 7th June to 3rd July. The second half of June was very wet, and often cold and dull. Although May began very warm, there was an unusually cold spell with wintry showers by week 2, then after an unsettled, warming period, the second half was excellent in terms of many sunny, warm days, which spilled over into early June. A thundery breakdown on the 7th led onto a dire three week period, with periods of persistent rain, and low temperatures at times of just 10 to 12 c in the daytime. An improvement by 5th July, and a generally warm or very warm July, with sunny periods, followed by an exceptionally hot and sticky August and prolonged sunshine, with easterly winds at times bringing a really stuffy feel from the continent. A bit more unsettled later in the month, and I remember thunderstorms one Sunday (24th or 31st?) September seemed also to have many settled and sunny days; I remember October also being often dry too but some very cold nights.
  11. Portland Paul

    April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    11.0 please 8-)
  12. Portland Paul

    Late December 1996-early January 1997 cold spell

    Maybe it's just perception, but was January 1997 also very dull indeed? I can barely remember any sunshine that month
  13. Portland Paul

    The Winters Of 85-86 In The West Midlands area

    Hey Walsall Wood Snow, in south-west Birmingham, late November 1985 had a sudden hail/ sleet shower one dusk, turning to snow, about 2-3 cm accumulated, followed by very icy surfaces for a few days with sunny days. Late December 1985/ early January 1986, I think around 7 or 8 cm of snow accumulated, with a bit more towards 9th January, enough, I remember, for sledging and snowmen! January 1987 (14th-16th) was very severe, with high drifts and a bitter wind-chill, whereas 7th March 1987 was a day of wet snow on a raw SE wind, turning to proper snow from late afternoon, with about 10 cm by dusk (gone 6 pm) November 20th 1988 was a light early morning snowfall, about 4 cm, with sunny and frosty days to follow
  14. Portland Paul

    The Winters Of 85-86 In The West Midlands area

    Hey, I lived in south-west Birmingham, and have fond weather memories of the mid 1980s winters. My 10th birthday being in January 1985, and I've been a keen weather watcher since the age of 6! 1983- 1984 winter - I remember December starting frosty and sunny, turning milder and more unsettled followed by a short cold spell and a few cm of snow, then milder again. January 1984 was very unsettled, and turned much colder towards the middle with some heavy snow showers. Unsure memories about the rest of the month, but remember some snow and hard frosts in February 1984. For 1984-1985 - December seemed average, pretty unsettled, but remember a much colder and snowy period in early-mid January 1985. Milder and changeable fourth week, some snow showers late in month. February, those blizzards around 7-9 th, over a foot of snow in strong SE to E winds. Thereafter, fine and sunny with severe frosts and huge icicles 1985-1986 - Snow showers and hard frosts in 4th week November, followed by the same at the end of December. Lying snow until 11th January 1986, then mild and stormy for a short time. Very cold again later in the month, then a bitterly cold February, with some sunny days, and very hard frosts. Some snowfall, mostly early in the month, with lying compacted snow and ice persisting for a long period. March was very cold also. 1986-1987 - December was mild, but January turned extremely cold towards mid month with large snowdrifts to 3 feet high, powder snow on a strong Easterly. More snowfall in February 1987 too, and again on 7th March. Hope this helps
  15. Portland Paul

    What's your favourite month from past memories?

    March 1995 was brill, just like a March should be! Everything from gales, very warm sunshine, thunderstorms, hail, hard frosts, and snowfalls