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Ian Docwra

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Ian Docwra

    The latest NetWeather radar shows a big drop in precipitation amounts - down to blues and greens everywhere from the yellows and oranges of several hours ago near the Essex and Suffolk coast.  +0.2C here with moderate snow and wet ground, still, but with some settling on grass, etc.  I can now see Box Hill dimly through the snow and can see that it is white up there - 300 feet makes all the difference at these temps.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, snowking said:

    Okay, I’ll bite.

    Probably because it hasn’t missed us? There’s plenty of pictorial evidence to support this. 
     

    As for “record breaking snowfall”, has anyone actually predicted that? Apologies if they have and I have missed it but I do not recall seeing anyone predicting that.

    Agreed - people have had snow.  My point was about those who were claiming that it was "nailed on" to get well below-zero temperatures everywhere and that there was nil chance of any melting - "everything coming out of the sky will be snow and will settle" was the tenor of so many here.  It's one thing to have a stab at predicting what might happen, but to assume cast-iron knowledge that something WILL happen without question (and berate those who are more pragmatic) is unhelpful.  Many were talking earlier in the thread about 30-40cm being quite possible, red warnings, etc., - you know the sort of hype I mean. 

    Then there were those who refused to accept (or possibly even check) what was clearly shown to be happening to Darcy last evening by satellite imagery - it was moving away from the SE and noticeably so, yet that fact was denied by many. 

    BTW, I'm not saying speculation is wrong; it's the vehemence with which so many simply refused to entertain any other options.   If wishing made it so, eh?  My point about the seeming inability of any models to predict this outcome still stands, BTW, particularly as I, as an amateur, could see it happening myself.

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, Wynter said:

    I love your enthusiastic TI, you always give it your all. But come on mate, very rarely do we get what you predict. Even you've got to admit that.

    It does call into serious question the huge build-up to this, with countless models being run and re-run, all to little avail.  I am certainly no expert but a quick look at the infrared satellite late last night showed me that 'Darcy' was missing us - why couldn't anyone more knowledgeable than I see that real-time stuff?!   Today, so many people are still saying that "it will come", when it clearly won't.  I'm not, by the way, saying that we aren't going to have a very cold week - I think we are - but the hyperboly about record-breaking snow depths, red warnings and so on has been baffling.

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Ian Docwra

    3 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

    An uptick in the intensity and flake size here in Horley, Gatwick. Settling on usual suspects (parked cars, grass, roofs). I’d say about 1cm. Something nice to look at now at least. 

    Does that mean an increase?  Light to moderate snow at +0.4C here in Brockham, Surrey and sodden ground is still green.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    It's been a funny old day: the air temp is clearly <0C; but it can't be that far below, because whenever the sky brightens, the snow that's frozen onto dark surface starts to melt... the icicles don't. 

    I'd suggest that the temperature isn't <0C, but around +0.5C, as confirmed by the Met Office 1200 reports of between 0C and 3C in EA generally.  The longer sea track makes it warmer further north in the area (3C around The Wash).  I am finding it hard to understand why so many models put the temperature well below freezing so widely today, given the well-known North Sea SST positive anomaly this winter.  It might drop a little further as more air flows in from Europe, but the snow is diminishing all the time.  

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    Assuming your weather has been similar to Kent, the roads are still holding energy from that warm sunny day on Friday. It got to 12c and what with the sun shining on them they'll still have some of that heat. 

    Here you can tell where the shadows were because that's where the snow is settling!

    Precisely!  Exactly what I was saying yesterday - the weather has been mild to warm recently and the ground soaks that up slowly, and releases the warmth similarly slowly.  I was met with a barrage of replies saying that was nonsense and that everything would instantly turn to ice, etc., etc.   The air is warmer than so many seemed to expect anyway (the first pulse left Holland at -1C or -2C and travelled across an SST of up to +6C so I don't see why they thought it would stay sub-zero!) and is therefore above freezing here.  

    As I write it is snowing a little harder here but is still +0.6C and will simply not settle on sodden ground at that temperature.  Box Hill is not visible in the snowfall at the moment and I imagine it to be around -0.4C up there and so probably accumulating.  Altitude is critical.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, danm said:

    Including the SE. The key is modelling won’t accurately pick up showers and streamers. It raises the stakes for later and gives more of us a chance for something more substantial. 

    The bulk of the streams of heavy showers I saw on the BBC forecast this morning at about 1000 were well to the North of the SE (across the Midlands to Wales and the Peak District, etc.), with only a few smaller ones draped across the south.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Looks like the Met office warning will be fairly good, the amber zone doesn't look huge but where it does snow for a prolonged period the snow will eventually add up. Remember it will snow on and off in that amber zone for the next 24hrs at least.

    Sadly the game was up for us lot further west a good 24-36hrs ago when the models shifted slightly further east again.

    As I said, if your west of C.London, be prepared for a cold but more or less green (or brown if you got mud!) week rather than white. 

    As I pointed out amid the derision last night before I went to bed, it only took a quick look at the Met Office infrared radar to see the steady movement away to the east of 'Darcy', but there was a barrage of people claiming it would throw out new fronts, new arms to the west, reverse, etc!  We still may get a covering but the temperature is still above freezing (although that was claimed to be impossible by now by so many yesterday!), so a drop of at least 1C would be needed for that.  The intensity of precipitation in the eastern fringe has generally dropped a lot in the last few hours, too. 

    Good to know that many got the snow they so fervently hoped for.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Ian Docwra

    1 hour ago, FlightlessWings said:

    Yeah, I live to the south east of Dorking so I am always walking in and around Brockham! 

    We're between Brockham and Betchworth near the Big Field. 

    Now at +0.6C and light snow, settling on vegetation, but everything else is very wet and not accepting snow - yet.  The ground is, as predicted, too warm still and the grass is wet, not white.  I do wonder if all the wonderful models that people pinned so much hope on actually took proper account of the higher-than-normal SST to our east, as so many were saying that the air couldn't possibly be warm enough to be above freezing by now.  It may drop below as the day progresses to allow some accumulation, but it's certainly nowhere near as clear-cut as the 'hypers' were insisting.  Today should be quite interesting, at least.

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    I got up a while ago to find a wet, snowless day.  This is pretty much what I expected, despite the huge hype, but I had hoped to be wrong.  I said last night that 'Darcy' was clearly moving away as shown by the infrared satellite secquences, and would only just clip the SE but I was assured that it would reverse/throw out "arms" and provide "epic" snow.   Again, I hoped to be wrong.  There seemed to be very little observation of the actual progress of the storm and a huge concentration on models supposedly predicting its movement (wrongly).  There now looks to be dribs and drabs of precipitation around while the activity is mainly over the continent.

    I hope some people at least have some snow after all their wishing.  For the record, here between Dorking and Reigate we have +1.2C and snow flurries.  We had graupel briefly about an hour ago.

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