Lloyd1

Again I reiterate models have no clue. Met also removed warnings for me on the west coast of wales and now it’s started to pick up again

The Models don’t have a clue when it comes to this type of system and the margins. It’s a look out the window job for the next few days. I need a break from these models I think

These day time temps on the models are still very mild for serious disruption mind. I’m staying optimistic but I can’t ignore this factor

These models are getting interesting now, hinting at potential for -8+ pushing in. Quick thought, what were the 850 temps for that cold snap last March. Also, was that cold spell early or late March?

NASA

7deg+ I’d say where you are based, all location dependent. I think people need to remember our average winter temperatures sometimes when getting too emotionally caught up with these models.

I Enjoy the hunt for cold and watching these models but sometimes I think to myself why I do it considering how inaccurate they are most of the time

Stupid question but is it ever possible for the PV to split in to three vortices? One sitting over Canada, Asia then us?

The Polar Vortex looks close to splitting on all, could that well happen?

And there she goes haha

Don’t let the emotions get to you with the ECM shifting. I can’t count the amount of times it has switched back in the past (likewise with GFS, GEM, etc) Relax, we still have 4 months left to enjoy.

Interesting ECM run this morning. I can see battlegrounds starting to form down south.

God it’s funny watching these models All over the shop. Hopefully no major downgrades like last winter (tears were shed). I can see ECM bringing something a bit milder back on the 7th but then temps slowly dropping back off, I haven’t had a chance to assess models yet today but I’m assuming it’s due to Greenland High trying to creep further east.

What needs to happen for that vortex to drop down? Is it the case of the Greenland high having to push further north? (Sorry, yes I’m a novice)

Does anyone have the actual December 2010 chart for comparison, thanks