Frigid

GFS 12Z says no to a record breaking warm April. Obviously an outlier but it's been quite a consistent theme in the runs recently for a cool down mid month.

Something I've noticed is how warm Aprils were back in the 1940s, something we're yet to see in a warming climate. Back to back warm Aprils in 1943,44,45,46 and 49. All had a CET of 10C+, except 46 with 9.9C. Keep in mind from 1893 to 1943, there was not one 10C April so it's kind of strange how out of nowhere we saw four in the 40s (five if you round 9.9C).

These mild minima aren't that unusual, it happens almost every winter. Can recall the end of March 2017 having very mild mins, in which it set a record.

baddie And that Dec 2010 was the complete inverse of 2015. Mild snap mid December 2010, cold snap mid December 2015. Exceptionally cold first 10 days, exceptionally mild first 10 days . Exceptionally cold Christmas, exceptionally mild Christmas. Also that happened in the space of 5 years, same w July 2015/20. It is quite fascinating when looking at the stats. Sorry just realised this is the summer thread..

Should put up a poll. For me it's sunny and cold, by far the best weather combination this country can get. Good examples in April are 2016, 2019, and of course 2021. Cool to mild days around 10-14C with temps rapidly dropping to near freezing is what I look forward to in spring, it also vastly improves soil quality. Mild and wet is the worst, the upcoming spell just reeks of pure filth and it can't just be me that thinks that. It's a perpetual string of mild days that gets to me, especially when we could be enjoying much better weather.. Hopefully late April into May can bring some pleasant days, high teens and low single digit minima go great imo.

That's better

The NW ain't looking too good. More like a continuation of the weather we've seen in the last 6 months.

It's mild, but at what cost... whatever happened to that SSW response, please let it show something pleasant.

baddie Now imagine if June 2023 happened a year prior, that would be the warmest summer on record.

I enjoyed this month, but I know the vast majority didn't. Felt a bit strange with single digit maxima and the sun up at 9pm, the first half wouldn't be out of place in the middle of winter. After coming from a cold April it was definitely strange to see two cold months back to back, the likes we hadn't seen since 2013. It was so close to being a sub 10C May, but of course the warmth at the end pushed it just above. I recall the CET mid month being in the low 7s, which is mad considering that this February was a lot milder up to that point. Here's a look at the temperatures for Manchester, very chilly in the first half.

cheese Yes, a strange pattern with Spain one of the coldest countries atm. Eastern Europe is exceptionally warm; 25C in Warsaw, 24C in Kyiv, 30C in Belgrade.

A good example of a properly cool July wasn't too long ago, back in 2020. A CET of 15.8C, it was stuck around the high 14s low 15s for most of the month until the one day heat spike at the end. I suspect July 2023 would've been similar had the SSTs been around average. Goes to show we can still get pretty cool July's despite the exceptional warmth plaguing our weather.

Part of me thinks this month will break the long stretch of exceptionally mild months, but the current model output says otherwise. Just to be safe, I'll go slightly above average. 9.4C and 110mm. Thanks

raz.org.rain Cool summers will become rarer as time goes on, but we can still get pretty cool periods in summer. Months like June 2019, July 2020, August 2021 weren't long ago. Perhaps a 2007/12 style summer will be hard to come by but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another cool summer like 2011 or 2015.

B87 July 2023 didn't hit 30C? Damn what an anomaly, when was the last time that happened b4 2023?

LetItSnow! An interesting stat for sure. Who knows, will this year break the 121 year streak? We'd only need an April cooler than 7.8C which is manageable. April 2016 and 21 recent examples.

kold weather Will be quite something if April comes in cooler than February and March. When was the last time that happened?

Now that's extreme! Many places stay below freezing all day, that air would be colder than anything we saw this winter.. mind you it's the GFS so it definitely won't verify. Classic pub run

Not a fan of heat, but if we do get it then the drier the better. Spells like July 2019, August 2020 and 2022 just remind me how humid it can get during heatwaves. Absolute unbearable at times, especially during night. I do have fond memories of July 2013 and 2018 as the heat was a lot drier. The Jul 2022 spell had a min humidity of 18% which I think is a record for here, felt like an actual desert. That said, it was a lot more manageable than those heatwaves mentioned.

raz.org.rain True it would've been a lot cooler if SSTs weren't so anomalously high. July 2023 would've been like 2012 if SSTs were around average.

raz.org.rain Think it's way too early to predict summer. July 2023 was primed to be hot, and what we got was the completely opposite. Can recall the LRFs suggesting a hot month but it all collapsed.

kold weather The most impressive thing about April 2021 is the amount of sunshine coupled with numerous frosts. It's one of the driest, sunniest Aprils on record. You could compare April 2021 and Dec 2010 with it's minimum CET; April 2021 has the coldest min CET on record, same with Dec 2010.

Hard to believe that this was four years ago, time really flew by. My recollections of Spring 2020 were mainly positive. The end of March 2020 was blue skies for days, something that I hadn't seen since Summer 2019. April was a mild, but pleasant month with many sunny days and cool night temperatures. It was very dry and sunny, only beaten a year later which I believe is the sunniest April on record. May was a great month, except the final few days where it got a bit too warm for my liking. The mid month cool spell was very potent and brought some sharp frosts, something I've not observed this late into the season. All of this gave way to a very boring summer and autumn.

Wow 2015 really set a trend here didn't it. 2021 and 23 the only normal years. As for my prediction, I put down 33.8C in a previous thread. But looking at the data, I'm more inclined to go higher. Going for 36.3C, 14th July.

baddie That would be great. April 2021 is the driest April since 2011, would be much welcome after such a wet last 9 months. Mild, sunny days with hard night frosts.. one of the best spring months I've experienced to this day.