Frigid

Those are the morning runs, UKM 12z looks much better. ECM could follow, or be a mess.. we shall see

The GFS ens are only trending colder with each run.. a good sign it has to be said. 18Z 00z 06z

Hey at least it's not raining

Excellent spell of autumn weather this has been, unbroken sunshine today with temperatures rapidly plummeting after dusk. Much better than the incessant rain we had few days ago. Shame it's not going to last, next week looks like a washout.

Reached a max of 8C on the 4th and 9th, definitely feels like winter now.. this time last month it was 20C+

Its rained here every day since the start of November, a truly dire start to the month. Next few days look great though, gotta make the most of it until the next eternal deluge.

November 2010, 2016 and 2021 all had spells I enjoyed. Nov 2010, well.. what's more to say. 2016 was a chilly, and at times quite sunny month. Can vividly remember waking up to a frosty morning on the 8th. Through to the 12-19th it was quite wet but saw some flurries around the 18th. The final 10 days was what I can describe as bitterly cold and frosty. Nov 2021 was quite forgetful, though it did contain a pretty good snow event courtesy to Storm Arwen. It was the last time we'd see snow until December 2022. Snow cover is quite rare in November, the last time it happened was in 2021, and then 2010.

True, we have to go back to 2018 to find a February remotely cold.. since then it's been akin to a typical March. April 2021 was cooler than Feb 2019/2020/2022/2023 which is absurd.

To sum it up, the next 10 days looks dire. What does it take to get a full week of no rain, no cloud and chilly days in November.. can't remember the last time if ever. A huge anticyclone over us would do it, but honestly anything other than incessant rain works.

How accurate was the November CANSIPS data last year for Winter 22/23.. Did it sniff out the cold spell in December?

I was referring to my location. Apologies for being unclear.

Watch out for the falling iguanas

More impressively, is that it came right after a record breaking mild Oct-Nov. IIRC, models around the 17th Dec hinted at another cold plunge at months end which could've landed the month as one of the coldest on record. 2022 was a year of extremes.. 38C and -10C all in the same year.

It has been an awful month. Surprised how it beat 2000 and 2020, those are up there with some of the wettest on record. On the upside, looks like I was bang on with the CET .. same can't be said for the EWP. Seems like every October recently has been incredibly wet. Last time we had an October EWP under 100mm was back in 2018.

Miracles can happen

Ah the end of Daylight Savings Time, an extra hour of sleep and the signal to a dark period of the year.. also model runs showing up an hour early . Personally, I enjoy waking up in the dark, watching the sunset on my commute, and the long nights. But everyone's different, so I understand why some may detest this period of the year.

Have a feeling this November won't be exceptionally mild like the last few ones.. famous last words. 6.4C and 120mm. Thanks

Quite a cold morning, totally unexpected. Dipped to 2C with fog still lingering.. almost feels like winter.

If you're after a chilly start to November, the 6Z looks decent. Bit of snow too for northern areas. Max of 1C here, with snow would be a very notable cold spell for this early in the season.

Perhaps a chilly Halloween/Bonfire Night if the 6Z is anything to go by. Now when was the last time we had that..

We went from one of the best October days in 5 years to one of the worst. Utterly dreadful. It can only get better from here..

Would make sense that most posts in a winter thread are looking for cold. Same in summer, but of course heat. It isn't a clear signal, but latest GLOSEA is going for a blocked Nov and Dec with mixed conditions later on. At this timeframe, they're usually accurate but it doesn't mean for certain.

Models are suggesting a blocked November, the latest met update also mention the chance of cold easterlies. Being the met are never bullish on cold till at a closer timeframe there could be a chance of it being the first month of the year to come under the 61-90 average. Last year, it was looking likely but of course December came in with a bang being the coldest since 2010.. though that was a mere coincidence. Could it happen again?

Judging from the GFS 6z, temperatures for the remaining third of the month look average at best but very wet. So suppressed maxes and higher mins most likely. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if the CET comes in between 12.5-13C. Perhaps a chance it could be a bit below that which would be great for my CET prediction. Never would've thought I'd be remotely close with the first week setting records. So all in all, a very wet, very warm October. Shocker.

Shap seems to be a cold spot, always see them pop up during cold spells. Impressively, they also recorded -8.4C in April 2021 and -5.8C in May 2021.. not sure if those are records but could well be. What a cold Spring that was. Only went down to 1C last night but we did get a frost on Sunday morning, with a temp of -0.8C.