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  1. 3c and 68mm. The good thing is that I am afraid I will be wrong and January will end up cooler than 3c, which is a win anyway.
  2. Pretty happy from the current maps. Also we have the SSW incoming which can turn things wild. Anyway I can't resist but post this Chinese cold wave: The -15 (maybe even lower) 850 hPa temp reaching as south as Shanghai! which is around 31-32nd north latitude. Thats as south as middle of Morocco. It is so south that the models showing Europe barely reach this latitude line.
  3. 150 mm overnight here in Tel Aviv Israel, some places 200mm+ within 16 hours window~.
  4. As we had into winter things only get more abnormal. Tried to match the 500mb Geopotential height anomaly of Septembers and Octobers to 2020. Got double match for 2003 and 2012. I squeezed October 2012+1952 because they seem to be more far away from Oct 2020. Could have tried to match November 2020, since it is pretty much a done deal with the persistent high pressure and mild conditions.
  5. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Can't take CFS enso forecast seriously. -3 (-0.9 colder than 1974) on 3 ensembles? This is beyond ridiculous. Anyway, I checked what was the average and maximum temperature drop from JAS value to the pick each year: None of the La ninas went below 0.9 degrees temperature, Thus three months of strong La nina seems to be extremely unlikely for our current event. The overall average drop is -0.541. The average drop when JAS was within the range of -0.4 till -0.8: -0.427.
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