Scott Ingham

that looks beautoful!

See this was my thinking that id never got rid since october buy my gp said it wouldht show on a test after 36 days so its more likely to be a different strain. Appreciate that m8 took me a lot of courage to start getting my own ideas across about forecasting. This year ive been lucky with (without too much back slapping) getting things right up to this point but its weather normally it makes mugs of what you think and it still could do resr of winter

In my head it just makes sense. Anything under 96hours in Americs GFS is better at. That i dont personally feel is up for debate from like you years of learning model bias in certain set ups. If gfs is right in america then a greeny ridge is nailed. That one north pacific low is that important our chances of seeing cold prior to the ssw. 20th onwards is when we see the models show charts being affected by the SSW pal. Thats 17 days away so well see it back end of GFS next thurs/fri/saturday. I hope we get a nice streamer set up!!

Steve Murr just posted the first hi res chart which takes us to 5am tuesday morning and that shows us with 2 or 3cms just from monday which when i last checked looked more marginable so thats a great sign!

I remember this! Its the first memory i have of snow as a child sledging with my sister in clifton park with my Dad! I hope it is and thanks for the words!

Thanks Danns i have had it twice now im like a breeding ground for it hahaha Appreciate the concern tho! The snow will help! Hahah!

Well thats the plan to try n get a nap in till the 12z start n listen to my body but believe it or not this is the second time for me now!

Thanks for the update mate! Sounds good at least thats one bright spark out of being stuck in unwell getting to watch heavy snow showers! I do strongly believe the gfs is right here you know? Genuinely believe it but im not a pro met forecaster im an amateur like the rest of us with a degree in meteorology. I do trust in my line of thinking though and whatever how interesting has this year been?!

Thanks pal its awful feel like ive done 9 rounds wi Tyson

Yeah exactly that Nick. Summed up beautifully. Also a lot of talk about a rise in 850s 9th or 10th and screaming breakdown. I scream low pressure moving into a cold pool. Potentially snowy i think before we head colder again

Yeah and notice the rise in 850s around the 9th coincides with a potential battleground period. Less cold but potentially more snowy

Yeah it is mate! Not at day 5 tho a couple of days later which is more encouraging

Yes but these werent set ups that included a greenland high. Look back to middle of december and youll see we had the same argument about ecm being a better model etc until it got within 96 and it was right. Only one way to find out and thats to enjoy your sunday live life and see what the 12z brings

Im a little unwell with corona mate so not put time into checking hi res but how we looking for next weeks easterly?

It can only be right in this scenario. Greenland heights and american macroscale patterns. Its notoriously good with these patterns Middle of december ecm and ukmo came on board 96 hours to the Greenland high See you all at 3!

Thats more of a worry for sure. Looks a middle ground. Doesnt topple the high anywhere near as quick as the ECM/UKMO

Your braver than me but one of us will be! Hahaha! The GFS has always been better than the euros in the states. We had the same 2 weeks ago GFS on its own and it turned out correct. Fascinating if not stressful all the same!

So last post of me spamming the same story before the 12z as im currently dieing off with corona! Watch for this development (also covered by @Catacol further up the board That low on the 96 hour charts. Watch it from 72 to 96 You want it deeper and digger deeper into America. This kicks up a small surface ridge ahead of it on the American East Coast which pushes shortwave energy east to drop over us whilst leaving a vacuum for the north atlantic ridge to move into over Greenland See you all at 3:00pm!

Its not that complicated its the extra amp in the GFS early doors pushing the pacific low deeper into america. It highlights the importance upstream to downstream mate

Yeah which is the logical thing to do you would back the majority its no critism at all

Yep! Not over mate at all

Watch at T-80 onwards tonight. Watch that pacific low it needs to dive south in America. Its literally that!

Its king in america and it hinges on an american low pressure. People have reacted to morning model runs again i believe

The GFS trumped the ECM two weeks ago on a similar thing when i was banging the drum about it. So dont write off chances

Deeper North Pacific low and look at the difference If your calling the cold spell over your braver than me when it all hinges on an American short wave! Youd think as the aam rises from the monster eamt this low will be modelled further south So give it till t-96 to call off chances