Scott Ingham

My honest opinion is we’ll see this trend south as I still believe Greenland heights are being underestimated. You can see how it’s 300 miles south from the 12z due to stronger heights but if it does trend south we’ll only get hit by a different system down the line when the jet stream heads north. We can have prolonged cold then heavy battleground or a quicker cold period and heavy snowy battleground. It’s not the worst position to be in for sure!

I don’t know if anyone has covered it or seen it but we have an atmospheric river pointing at the uk for the time this low pressure hits. That usually means unusual amounts and intensity of rain involved with these low pressures. Hitting arctic air!!! Gulp!!!

That chart is biblical in regards to snowstorms I absolutely agree 1881! This event could be insane for someone (if it plays out this way of course as it will head south after without thaw!) Fair play to Tamara this run is very 1979/79 actually!

Yep it’s the shortwave that tried to cut off the flow that’s headed in a better direction right for us. Could be a snow maker

The Icelandic shortwave heading straight through the country fascinating run this one

Substantial over Greenland too upgrading heights at very short notice this…. Could this be the start of some last minute upgrades?

@ 102 hours the low has disappeared on the GFS!!!!

Yummy!! Iceland/Scandi heights are what were discussed with Catacol! I think that would probably be at the extreme end however

Out of interest what is the 500s pattern for that chart buddy as it’s in and around the expected next period of high lat block interest give or take a day or 2 29th.

As discussed with @Mike Poole we already have!

Exactly! This is as far as we can get to atm with what we know but it’s better than what we had 10years ago. I couldn’t without this science give any sort of mid to long term prediction unless it was 1 week ago. I firmly believe people like Tamara will be at the forefront of weather forecasting

I think from where we were 3 weeks ago the gdsm has done a bloody good job to get the macro scale correct. there is a cold period with snow and heights to the north west. This science will never be able to iron out finer details as we get close to an event. You can’t say that around the 15th or a day or so sooner it hasn’t mapped out a weather pattern that is conducive to cold and snow? If I told you 3 weeks ago the met would be deep diving talking about disruption possible to heavy snow and gave you no scientific reasoning behind it you’d have thought I was bonkers so I think you’ve got to give some credence to the science?

I saw the +EAMT that’s imminent! That’s bang on cue and the MJO wave looks significantly more amplified than the last wave which in all fairness we got the crumbs of in phase 1 and not much time in higher impacts phases 7 and 8. The way I look at it is we’ve just hit a holding pattern that on its own is conducive for high level blocking and cold and about to hit a knock out blow with the next rise in AAM! Im with you… cold weather impacts to see out the rest of the winter now with relaxation periods bringing about periods of battleground snow…. Perfect! Its been fun to muse with you I’ll have one thought of you when we see these Icelandic/scandi rises hopefully on the 29th of January if I’m still in and around the right ball park of lag. 29th of January! Next key date!

I don’t think this will ever change. I’m just going along with the flow now!

The UK is so small and these lows can change so much at this timeframe that not a lot can be said really! We’re looking at the weekend before we’ll even have some kind of idea

First week of February into the second look more interesting than next week! I just hope we can make the most of this as this has been the best winter pattern in 3 years that I’ve been studying long range GDSM products. Who knows when we’ll next get a combination like this!

I agree with you I think it will be a long way south of where it’s shown!

It’s going to test this forum next weeks cold 100 miles will make all the difference! Somewhere could have 2 or 3 heavy snow periods in a sweet spot!

Day 7 is an imby chart if I’ve ever seen one! Nail biting if your in the south!

If you check the past 3 days ensembles the cold has upgraded between the 18th and 20th

From Acorns….. Discussion and musings on the 3rd of January for scandi to take the next lead… First little signs perhaps of stage 2 of the tropically forced winter atmosphere…. 29th of January for Tamara day perhaps?

what seems is happening is the shortwave near Iceland has delayed the initial plunge of cold air but the heights after this are showing to hold on longer than thought giving a second plunge of cold air. The models are really struggling with the continued levels of flux caused by Decembers rise in momentum and very small climb down to leave us in a state that’s still susceptible to high level blocking. I could not write off a sustained period of cold weather just yet! The shortwave itself could bring a period of snow however in itself!

Ukmo is the best run this afternoon of that there is not any doubt. I’d be happy with ECM coming in somewhere near this!

What do you think to the gwo looking like it’s hardly been touched? Me personally I’m excited for the next tropical wave and consequent rise in AAM off a good base state!

Agreed mate! As far as snowfall is concerned it’s sensational! It may not have longevity (although background drivers continue to paint a picture that it could or that the rest of winter has longevity) but it has potency!