Scott Ingham

The musing about scandi heights started back on the 3rd of January buddy some 13days ago with yourself and Battleground Snow and I think even a week before that I discussed this evolution with Catacol so if the GDSM products can nail this period for a second time this winter around a month before it happens it just adds even more evidence to this ever growing meteorological science used for long time forecasting! The hard bit is getting the lag periods and timings right. The 15th was correct it’s a waiting game for the 29th. There’s been so much to learn this winter!

I’ll just reply with as I think we’re derailing the chat n will get into trouble soon!

I tried! Believe me! A week away when I could see the potential I tried to get the time away from work but it wasn’t enough notice unfortunately! Gutted! She bombarded me with pictures and videos on WhatsApp! we split 2 months later…. Think that was the bringing of the end!

It was a fabulous spell and it involved nearly all the British isles! The east and south east and Scotland especially hit hard with showers from the North Sea and a normally barren south west and south wales got the mother of all channel lows giving 40-50cms in some parts. My girlfriend at the time from Abergavenny measured 49cms! I was jealous as I was back in Yorkshire at the time!

Yea typo sorry! 2 weeks earlier! Yeah a complete typo! Haha! I’ll edit now! And yes agreed it could very well be the main course and has just as much background support if not more than the current cold spell had!

This is more than interesting! It’s starting to remind me of 2018. I’d take that 2 weeks earlier!

I completely agree and I agree about the seasonal as well Aaron. They all point in the same direction February and March. It’s traditional for a Nino winter but we have the added help coming from a weakened vortex and perfect timing from the tropical cycle into the western pacific off the back off a Nino like atmosphere already in high GWO states! I’m interesting winter this one even though I’ve had no snow yet? You must have done well last night into today?

I’ve been waiting for over a week to see this! Scandi then retrogress to Greenland. Others who don’t have dyslexia can put more meat on the bones with charts. I’ve tried to explain before but I’m sure yourself and Tamara have covered it all properly anyway!

Well that 12z gfs run is just what I hoped to see and on the 28th with a day for cold to rush across the 29th prediction is starting to look like a half decent call. Usual caveats it’s miles out and it’s just a brave punt obvs! I’m no expert!

The radar looks a good 30-50miles south of the models which may bode better for South Yorkshire later on! I guess we’ll see!

Look at that date mate 29th for the change! Surely not 2 in a row! Fits in perfectly with retrogression into the back end of the first week of Feb! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5013385

Yeah 100% this is sign posted by events in the Strat, a move into MJO phases supportive of mild Atlantic weather and ensembles rock solid from the 20th. It’s the following week that will be fun to watch as we see a much better Strat profile, an impending +EAMT event and the tropics quickly moving thunder storm activity into the west pacific. Do we go North East the retrogress or straight North West to Greenland. For me it’s North East then retrogression. Time for chase number 3 this year! A better start profile and movement into phase 7/8 of the MJO will take care of that quicker than you’d expect looking at the models (even though as you say it looks like a beast over Greenland)

Look at that date mate 29th for the change! Surely not 2 in a row! Fits in perfectly with retrogression into the back end of the first week of Feb!

It’s possible. The evolution looks like heights up through or to the west of the UK migrating East, then West to Greenland. Similar to the 2018 evolution when the western conveyor belt hit a brick wall out of nowhere. The chart you posted is certainly an early crumb towards that

Now we’re seeing signs of the wedges advertised by an atmosphere that in all fairness is still in a high GWO orbit. A case of not taking models at face value all the time. We could see an extension of the cold for a day or 3

Tentative signs on the eps of scandi euro ridge which should in my view push into scandi when we get the movement into high amplitude western pacific phases. Very encouraging!

It fizzles out after two more frames so nothing else to show

The 18z icon shows the shortwave the met are talking up 5-10cms about. This works its way south east giving snow to both north and South Yorkshire. The bigger amounts for North Yorkshire but this is still too far out for any degree of certainty! Shows what can crop up however! Some very bright echos on this. It only last 4-6 hours at most but the intensity will mean a decent snowfall for many in these areas

Encouraging! Every day there’s something that throws out a clue to this period end of January into February. A height rise east of the meridian fits MJO 6 and a high base state of the GWO retrogression as tropical convection hits the West Pacific at decent amplitude! Chase number 2 at the starting blocks waiting for the gun to go off……

Great post! I’m fascinated to see if Scandi heights do come to pass as another test of long range forecasting tools. I’m with you as well. February has the potential to be the main course of this winter

ECM precipitation charts are awful. Looks better on the higher res models mate.

Yorkshire look like doing fairly well out of this shortwave! I can see where the met get 5-10cms from! id be concerned if I lived in the south but troughs etc can be picked up inside 48hours for everyone

Yeah I spotted this it’s what I’ve taken away. It shows there are possible upgrades to come!

that’s the community spirit! I knew I could rely on my Rotherham brethren!

I live in Rotherham mate we can’t afford bunting! Someone might craft somet out of the local rag! Oh it’s a big dog hahaha! It’s a Labradoodle! Full of ADHD!