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Liam Burge

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Everything posted by Liam Burge

  1. Liam Burge
    Not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but definitely quite an interesting insight by the Met into what could happen later on in the season.
  2. Liam Burge
    I believe the average is 2 weeks, however I could be completely wrong on this.
  3. Liam Burge
    A fairly significant cluster of ECMWF ensemble members are going for an SSW during the 1st-2nd week of January. This has been shown for some time, and every day more members are joining this cluster. FWIW, I do believe that by mid Jan we'll be seeing an SSW.
  4. Liam Burge
    New weather-health alerts have been issued.
  5. Liam Burge
    In the image you showed, the OP actually has quite a bit of ensemble support.
  6. Liam Burge
    For my location in Bridgwater, the latest GFS is also hinting at a possible blizzard with whiteout conditions if that run came to fruition.
  7. Liam Burge
    Yes but messages such as "this is a horror show" add literally nothing to the discussion.
  8. Liam Burge
    Just goes to show how good of a position we are currently in at this time when such charts are perceived as bad.
  9. Liam Burge
    I don't know about "Horror show"
  10. Liam Burge
    Could definitely be an interesting (and cold) start to Winter!
  11. Liam Burge
    Definitely exciting times ahead of us.
  12. Liam Burge
    True; I expect a further northward shift of the amber wind warning tomorrow and an introduction of an amber rain warning also tomorrow. I don't think any red warnings will be issued; if there was gonna be red warnings then the current amber warning would have been of a higher likelihood.
  13. Liam Burge
    I thought the amber warning would have been extended more northward than what it currently is. Maybe they will do that tomorrow.
  14. Liam Burge
    Same here. Only 46mph for my location
  15. Liam Burge
    Well; I'm thinking of travelling on a train back home Thursday afternoon. Hopefully Ciaran won't be as bad as forecast. Hope everyone on the coast stays safe.
  16. Liam Burge
    Oh I'm not sure, I just saw this warning be issued like an hour ago; I can't see any warnings that are in the highest impact column though. EDIT: Just seen the yellow wind warnings issued too, and yes they are in the highest impact column.
  17. Liam Burge
    Well, yellow warnings for rain has now been issued for what the Met is calling "Storm Ciarán". I thought they'd hold off at least another day before issuing warnings, but I could also see an amber rain warning issued for some areas in a few days; the current yellow warning is just one possibility matrix below an amber warning, so when the track is nailed more I could see this being issued. We'll probably also see yellow wind warnings issued sometime tomorrow.
  18. Liam Burge
    Wonder if we could be starting to see a warming show up? 0z vs 06z
  19. Liam Burge
    Would probably also be worth mentioning that 1877-1878 had the strongest +IOD on record during Autumn
  20. Liam Burge
    "The combination of high low-level streamwise vorticity and low cloud bases points to the risk of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes"
  21. Liam Burge
    Lets hope this storm near Torquay / Paignton bodes well for us lot later on today! Pretty sure no one was expecting any storms of this intensity this early on!
  22. Liam Burge
    Ooo this is interesting!! One of the more interesting wordings I've seen on a MetO outlook in quite some time.
  23. Liam Burge
    Still looks game on for my location overnight. Definitely looks like it's trying to intensify to the east and die out on the westernmost part of the storm.
  24. Liam Burge
    Haha! It's always the case.. either too far west or too far east, never exactly where we want it to be!
  25. Liam Burge
    Yep, then tracking North / North East.
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