Liam Burge

January 21

Also. It does seem like another named storm is coming on Tuesday. Although not named currently, the MetOffice wording to the current yellow wind warning suggests a possible amber warning (which would warrant them naming the storm)

"although it is not yet clear where the most likely location for the stronger winds is at this time. Further updates to this warning are likely in the coming days."

January 21

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'd like to be proven wrong, but something tells me that video is not in the UK.

It does seem to be real, the location being "athboy down in meath!!" (from the OP)

January 21

Seems like Isha is still intensifying.

January 20

With the new amber warning that has been introduced into parts of Scotland, the impact matrix has been increased to a 'high' impact. This could allow a red wind warning to be issued for parts of Scotland tomorrow if confidence increases in the track.

January 20

25 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm somewhat surprised that the Amber Warning hasn't been extended further into the South West England?

I agree with this. Although the current yellow warning is just one stage below the Amber warning so it could potentially get expanded tomorrow morning. However, that will only give people around 8-10 hours lead time before the winds start; begs the question on if an amber should have been issued earlier. I've definitely been under amber wind warnings for less than is currently showing.

January 19

I do suspect the amber warning to be expanded tomorrow morning given this wording for the yellow wind warning. I believe more of the SW will be included in this amber warning.

It doesn't look like a red warning is likely, at least in my opinion, however if models do uptrend or show Isha deepening faster than expected, a red warning could potentially be given out.

January 9

A definite 'upgrade' on the MetO outlook today. Especially the ending lines: "but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period.".

The GFS definitely isn't the preferred solution currently, and I believe this is due to it's bias to always want to return to something more atlantic-driven. Looking at ECM and UKM paints a much better picture with cold air becoming entrenched across the whole of the UK.

January 8

I'm surprised no one is raving about the GEM! It truly is that this morning. Although the 850s are only around -4 to -8c, this is probably the preferred solution for a locked in cold spell, with low pressure systems constantly bumping into the colder air. Would prefer to see the 850s be a little bit colder however, this is 240 hours out.

January 8

Wow, just wow. Compared to the 18z run this is night and day. The 18z was a stonker of a run and this is already looking so much better! Heights are a lot better positioned and cleaner, and the PV is ready to drop on us.

January 8

0z vs 18z GFS, heights are a little further north and are a little better aligned in my opinion.

January 6

This GFS run may just be the best chart of the season (currently). Would be bitterly cold under that air, would struggle to get much above 1-2c during the day, and hard frosts at night. Looks like the heights are re-establishing themselves too.

January 6

We'll have to wait for ensembles, but I would say that the GFS is definitely on board with the idea now.

January 6

Wow. Just WOW! That would be an amazing snow storm for parts of America, along with setting us up for a perfect intercept of the PV.

January 6

I have a feeling this run is going to be something special. Stronger heights over us, the PV looks better aligned (at least imo) and seems like an easier retrogression towards greenland as the lower pressure is weaker.

0z vs 18z

January 5

30 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I know some think it’s a myth, but the Meto text updates often seem to lag the models by 24hrs.

Because the professionals at MetO don't throw their toys out the pram over a few model runs (that are literally complete outliers). The cold is definitely still on, and I believe GFS 6z will be back on track.

January 4

Look at those heights towards Greenland!

January 4

Look at those heights over Greenland! This could be a very interesting run.

January 3

The amount of warming events happening this year is something quite extraordinary. It's warming event after warming event just slowly grinding away at the PV, and by the end of the GFS run the PV is almost non existent.

January 2

And there's the amber warning. I thought it would come. The low pressure system is now called Storm Henk.

January 2

1 hour ago, Jordan S said:

In the shorter term, looking quite stormy for some parts of central, southern uk this afternoon and especially evening time as a developing low pressure system (perhaps being a named storm) moves swiftly northeast bringing heavy rain and of more note gales and severe gales even inland in some areas..

Wind gusts of 50-60mph likely developing fairly widely over parts of the southwest and perhaps parts of central and eastern England with 40-50mph very widespread elsewhere across far southern UK, the strongest winds from this low look to move across the Midlands and east Anglia tomorrow evening, bringing the potential of gusts in these areas of a fairly disruptive and possibly locally damaging 55-65mph quite widely inland for a couple of hours or so, isolated gusts of 70mph possible too. Certainly a very wild evening on the cards, perhaps uprooting a fair number of trees especially given the saturated soil..

Agreed. Latest GFS has gusts of 72mph for my location, however this is definitely the most bullish solution.

December 27, 2023

Anyone up for round 2?

December 27, 2023

22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The GFS has been gradually backing away from a SSW in recent runs, particularly last nights 00z with a fairy substantial shift away, following yesterdays 12z EPS suite.

Tonights EC46 will certainly make for interesting viewing, I'd not be surprised to see this trend away from the idea too given more recent modelling.