Eagle Eye

March 30

Convective Outlook ️

Sporadic showers will develop across W Eng Ire & Scot today bringing the risk of the odd / couple of lightning strikes.

During the night / overnight, a trough will advect into SW Eng bringing the risk of a few rumbles/strikes, mainly in the Eng Channel

Sorry for no full discussion, not really worth it.

March 29

Don't know if this has been said yet but yesterday may be quite the day with the hail, pretty surprisingly large hail for the event, American style hail even with weak CAPE and strong low-level shear. May do a full case study.

March 29

Convective Outlook️

Widespread 50+ J/K of 3CAPE should allow for some widespread shower and storm activity to form throughout Friday, mainly in the afternoon. Fairly strong buoyancy in areas but mostly modest should allow for some stronger storms to form, mainly in the west moving towards the NE later, along with Ireland but still sporadic lightning appears more likely, given there's less epicentres of energy.

With weak deep-layer shear, upscaling is unlikely and Supercell potential is quite weak. So should mostly be single cell modes, scattered through a lot of the country.

Generally seems unsupportive of severe modes but hail may be a possibility and still a fairly blustery day. Though likely not that stronger under the showers.

Any potential organisation or the best chance of a Supercell appears to be in the northeast with the strongest of the PV lobes. Along with fairly strong 3CAPE.

March 28

Metwatch

Slightly surprised with the hail to be honest, strong low-level winds with that low-level jet and modest deep-layer shear. That likely means that it's surface based and the low zero levels allows it to take up a lot of energy in the hail growth zone.

March 28

Already quite a big storm for March and we haven't reached afternoon heating, Im not going to complain about what we're seeing so far even if it doesn't look like I'll be hit by a storm soon. Looks like we're going to have another quick start to storm season with potential that we don't see from 7 days out much and usually starts looking good a few days before and delivers like last year started off. Whilst Spanish plumes often end up in stronger and more memorable storm events, usually at night, which is in my opinion the best time for storms, these types of days are still up there. Especially if they can go into the evenings like yesterday.

March 27

Convective Outlook️

A complex system of showers and multi-cellular clusters of storms mainly for southern and central England moving NE throughout the day with lots of trailing showers. Strong surface energy forced onto surface-based buoyant airflow with high-level shearing, stretching the vorticity streamwise for strong low-level helicity.

100+ J/KG of 3CAPE will help aid strong forced bands of showers and storms capable of organised lightning but mostly sporadic, mainly in the SW, central south, southern Wales and parts of central England. Mainly in the early afternoon and lasting throughout into the evening though. Perhaps waning late evening to just weak showers overnight.

Forcing bands will help with the momentum and buoyancy to allow these to form and also become the central potential for severe weather. These low-level vorticity forcings, where they are strongest can force taller towers with almost their own identity depending on the strength, along with where they crossover with the strongest 3CAPE for low-level energy that can go into working with the low-level shear and potentially form a tornado. Especially, with near surface storms with higher wind friction near the surface which can sometimes force the start to a tornado (apparently) and it's a very interesting case as to if and where these form if they do for future forecasting. Also a potential for coastal tornadic activity with the showers and storms with the friction.

Isolated showers in Ireland and northern Ireland, mainly northern Ireland are possible. Perhaps a small chance of a lightning strike with those. As well as that, a band of rain that may have embedded towers looks to hit the SE in the day on a few forecasts and the main storms may hit the SE and the east and renew late evening with perhaps some re strengthening of the Theta-E in the region. Again, that may allow for some lightning to sporadically occur.

Generally though, the main potential is for sporadic and then some fairly frequent lightning in the central south, up to central England, south Wales and south western parts of England. Along with tornadic potential with this, but what would likely be weak tornadic activity unless the energy increases further.

Wind strength is also likely to be gusty with these. Both by the low placed over the UK and the storms themselves with all the low-level forcing.

March 27

WeatherWatchmanG Your location being west London suggests you're nowhere near the potential tomorrow at least.

March 27

WeatherArc

For stronger UK tornadoes you are totally right there in my opinion. For the bigger outbreaks with weaker tornadoes, it's the north Atlantic lows over the colder parts of the year that seem to do best. Especially ones that can combine with a Theta-E arm from wherever with increased moisture.

March 27

Ben Sainsbury Quite often the case with the UK, it's of ifs and buts...

If anything, if it was summer, we could well have that much energy. However, this setup won't happen in summer because of sods law.

March 27

The Tall Weatherman

Buoyancy is high, streamwise vorticity in a high LLS environment, if this can line up properly with high 3CAPE which is there and even on that sounding, I see no real reason why there can't be a tornado at all. High momentum inside the storm is likely with conditions for PV towers with potential momentum buildiers as well. However, saturation is often an issue and with the developments here, I think it could be an issue for a lot of the strongest hooked places. Longest lasting storms will have the best chance, it's not a real early type of event, instead, a tornado would want the air parcel to have the longest time to take up energy.

March 27

31 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in.

Sounding to prove it. That low-level hook is extremely rare for the UK.

March 27

Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in.

March 26

Convective Outlook️

Showers forming along a shortwave trough behind an occluded front in the early afternoon are likely to cluster mainly in the southern Irish sea, the far SW of England, western Wales and southwestern Ireland. Some fairly strong buoyant air should help force up with lots of energy for these showers to come with sporadic lightning likely given the time of year and limited potential for the energy. The occluded front itself in the eastern parts through a lot of the day may bring a sporadic lightning strike or two.

Strong surface energy and low-level winds in areas may aid some strong surface winds along with these showers as well. Small potential for a tornado in all of that. The deep-layer shear is strongest in the England and Wales parts of the slight risk, perhaps a small chance of a Supercell from that then. Hail is unlikely to be strong but the lift and cell mergers could force some kind of hail.

That should clear NE wards with a few straggling showers before a lifting occluded front clears it in the evening. Especially showers may linger in Ireland.

March 24

Best day of the year for photography yesterday for me.

A few birds flying by the moon as well if you zoom in.

March 24

Neilsouth

Thats becuase it's below average right now.

However going through March it was above average. March is a cold month, we had April-May temperatures quite a lot of the time.

March 23

Some bits off my camera from today.

March 23

Showery day, most interesting in a while.

March 15

This does appear to be a real video as there's a similar shot from further away of the dead man walking structure of one of the tornadoes with multiple large vortexes. Suggestive that it cold well have been violent.

March 15

Horrible horrible night for some people unfortunately. A couple absolutely violent tornadoes last night at the dark hours, the worst time.

March 14

March 14

Convective Outlook️

A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms could form in areas of cloud clearance on Friday. With 600+ J/KG of SBCAPE possible in areas aiding sporadic lightning. The two lines most likely appear to be forecasted roughly from the SW ENE-wards towards Essex and perhaps parts of Suffolk and another one likely weaker from south Wales towards north eastern parts of England.

Both of these should move slightly SSE after forming in the afternoon and fade into the evening having formed along wind convergence zones forcing PV lobes in those 2 areas it appears, the southern mode having more energy to work with.

Cloud coverage and saturation appears to be quite high in most areas limiting the lightning potential of showers and how many showers form. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in arwas may help with that but not much.

Some small hail is possible because of the energy but most of it is held in the low-levels. Weak shearing limits that again.