Eagle Eye

Oh no.

Tornado is a wedge wrapped in a rain at the moment. SPC continues and expands the high risk.

Large tornado was down on Corey Inman's night vision in-between lightning strikes here about a minute ago.

That wording.

Oklahoma City area as well and not far off Wichita...

Looks like they're going high risk. Emily Sutton said the same thing.

Convective Outlook ️ A convergence zone may force showers along an increasingly moist airmass zone, some of which may become thunderstorms. With strong lapse-rates helping lift at the surface helped by surface heating which also forces 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE and 600+ J/KG of MLCAPE. Weak shearing keeps the showers pulse-type and limits their height potential and also ability to become significant. Hail risk is relatively low then despite helpful background signals, mostly 1-2cm hail appears possible. Saturation is high limiting lightning risk despite strong showers being possible. With weak CAPE and small storms heights, the lightning risk appears to be rather sporadic and unorgani sed.

Convective Outlook️ Throughout the day across Scotland & SW England, intense showers are expected to form which may bring the a couple isolated lightning strikes. Across Scotland, CAPE levels are expected to rise drastically going into the afternoon where intense showers will break out. CAPE will be at around 200-500J/KG, which may allow the odd or couple of thunderstorms to develop, mainly across the AOI (Area of interest) Behind an occluded front across SW Eng, CAPE will also build up to around 100-300J/KG which brings the risk of the odd or few isolated lightning strikes. Heavy & intense showers will develop behind the front, whether these produce lightning or not is a different question. The risk for SW Eng, is very low & we are not to confident on it. Our attention then flips towards the Eng Channel in the night, a low pressure will track into Bay of Biscay (NW France). This will bring some instability across the channel at around 100-300J/KG which may allow a few lightning strikes from the intense showers in the channel. These showers are expected to stay in the channel & not affecting S Coast till tomorrow morning which another outlook will be published.

Day 3 already at an enhanced risk with linear evolution likely but any Supercell risking strong tornadoes. Large hail also possible.

Convective Outlook️ During the early hours of Saturday, a few intense showers may develop across NE/N Eng, Scotland which may bring a few isolated lightning strikes. A bit uncertainty how much lightning activity will be within these showers, however we suspect there could be lightning strikes at times as cape levels seem likely to sit around 200-400J/KG. During the late morning / early afternoon, we should see 2 areas of interest from across parts of Scotland & SE/S England where sporadic lightning may occu Showers will develop across S/SE England before tracking N/NW where further showers may develop which may bring the odd couple of isolated lightning strikes. An area of interest has been put out as most models are suggesting Cape around 300-600J/KG alongside with intense shower development. A thunderstorm or few may develop for a time within this area during the afternoon period. Our attention will also focus across parts of Scotland, where Cape is also expected to be around 200-400J/KG with some models suggesting higher, however i think its safe to say this is an outlier. Heavy intense showers are expected to develop and become slowly moving across the AOI. A few lightning strikes may be embedded within these showers, possibly the odd thunderstorm.

Just passed my theory test for driving. Could well be storm chasing by next year.

@StormLoser Some stuff close to you to your north it seems. Interested if you can see much convection there?

Clear sign of the energy approaching. Roughly on track to where it's supposed to be as well.

A bit off my camera. From last night still. 1.mp4 2.mp4 4.mp4 5.mp4

CAPE pool is slightly more east than forecast it appears. May get a storm outside of the low as this one is getting dangerously close. Surprising shift in what the models had firmed up as a small overnight scenario growing in the morning. Or this is the earlier risk delayed, in which case refer to this slight risk but delay timings a bit and i think shrink the western extent of it as well.