Eagle Eye

A few from my friend.

I have the best photos of my life to show you all tomorrow morning.

ERR GUYS.

Little bit green.

Overhead and gorgeous.

Here we go.

Convective Outlook️ Falling surface pressure and converging moisture should allow for a deep surface rooted warm Theta-E airmass to form over Scotland during Saturday afternoon. This allowing for 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE to form with a few pockets of lift helpful for thunderstorm formation. Weak saturation and strong low-level lapse-rates should favour lightning risks but given the weak deep-layer shear it'll likely be popcorn showers thst last a short time. Meaning that storms will have to take full advantage of the environment to realise their lightning risk. A large warm nose at the 700s level will take a lot to overcome and is a very possible bust risk because storms won't have long to overcome it before they can't support themselves. Especially as the lift is very low past the surface convergence. The strong low-level lapse-rates and near surface convection should allow for some hail formation though, perhaps up to half an inch. Especially given the weak shearing. However, that assumes a storm can get past that warm dry mid-level nose.

Oh no.

Tornado is a wedge wrapped in a rain at the moment. SPC continues and expands the high risk.

Large tornado was down on Corey Inman's night vision in-between lightning strikes here about a minute ago.

That wording.

Oklahoma City area as well and not far off Wichita...

Looks like they're going high risk. Emily Sutton said the same thing.

Convective Outlook ️ A convergence zone may force showers along an increasingly moist airmass zone, some of which may become thunderstorms. With strong lapse-rates helping lift at the surface helped by surface heating which also forces 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE and 600+ J/KG of MLCAPE. Weak shearing keeps the showers pulse-type and limits their height potential and also ability to become significant. Hail risk is relatively low then despite helpful background signals, mostly 1-2cm hail appears possible. Saturation is high limiting lightning risk despite strong showers being possible. With weak CAPE and small storms heights, the lightning risk appears to be rather sporadic and unorgani sed.

Convective Outlook️ Throughout the day across Scotland & SW England, intense showers are expected to form which may bring the a couple isolated lightning strikes. Across Scotland, CAPE levels are expected to rise drastically going into the afternoon where intense showers will break out. CAPE will be at around 200-500J/KG, which may allow the odd or couple of thunderstorms to develop, mainly across the AOI (Area of interest) Behind an occluded front across SW Eng, CAPE will also build up to around 100-300J/KG which brings the risk of the odd or few isolated lightning strikes. Heavy & intense showers will develop behind the front, whether these produce lightning or not is a different question. The risk for SW Eng, is very low & we are not to confident on it. Our attention then flips towards the Eng Channel in the night, a low pressure will track into Bay of Biscay (NW France). This will bring some instability across the channel at around 100-300J/KG which may allow a few lightning strikes from the intense showers in the channel. These showers are expected to stay in the channel & not affecting S Coast till tomorrow morning which another outlook will be published.